Walnut Market Update: Moldova’s Harvest Begins Amidst Changing Global Dynamics

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As the walnut industry enters the 2025 season, growers and traders face a shifting landscape marked by climatic variability, evolving agronomic practices, and intensifying global competition. Southern and central Moldova, a key European walnut-producing region, is set to commence harvesting the early export Peschansky variety between September 18–20, approximately a week later than last year. Favorable rainfall has ensured optimal nut ripeness and improved post-harvest quality, a notable change from 2024’s heat-driven early harvest. Nut size and kernel quality are being determined by advanced irrigation and nutrition protocols, with micro-irrigated orchards displaying superior results. Concurrently, European procurement prices are projected to start slightly higher than the previous year, though still influenced by the presence of large Chinese volumes and the competitive pricing of the Chinese ‘185’ variety.

On the global stage, Moldovan walnuts retain an edge through their unique harvest timing and reputation for quality. Nevertheless, the growing influence of Chinese walnut exports—priced attractively for early-season buyers—could increasingly dictate pricing trends throughout Europe. As harvest progresses, close attention will be paid to weather developments, kernel yields, and export flows, offering both risks and opportunities for growers and traders navigating the walnut market’s evolving dynamics.

📈 Latest Walnut Market Prices

Origin Type Location Price (EUR/kg) Prev. Price (EUR/kg) Update Date Market Sentiment
CN Light quarter kernels Dalian (FOB) 3.40 3.40 2025-09-12 Stable
CN Light amber pieces, 8-12mm Dalian (FOB) 2.35 2.35 2025-09-12 Stable
CN Light pieces, 8-12mm Dalian (FOB) 2.90 2.90 2025-09-12 Stable
CN Light broken, 4-8mm Dalian (FOB) 3.00 3.00 2025-09-12 Stable
US Light halves 80% (Organic) London (FOB) 4.65 4.65 2025-09-12 Stable/Higher
IN Light halves (Organic) New Delhi (FOB) 5.50 5.50 2025-09-12 Stable/Higher
CN “185” In-shell (USD/kg) China (FOB) 2.18* 2025-09-12 Competitive

* Conversion of $2.30–2.40/kg at EUR/USD 1.055.

🌍 Market Drivers & Supply-Demand Balance

  • Delayed Moldovan Harvest: Start is a week later than 2024 due to summer rainfall, improving nut quality.
  • Climatic Influence: Rain favored natural cracking, while prior years’ heat led to early but lower-quality harvests.
  • Irrigation & Nutrition: Micro-irrigated orchards (600L/tree + foliar feeding) yielded bigger and fuller kernels.
  • Pricing Trends: 2024 average for shelled Peschansky €1.28–1.54/kg; light kernel halves €5.13–6.15/kg. Early-season 2025 prices expected slightly higher.
  • Chinese Competition: ‘185’ variety at $2.30–2.40/kg in-shell maintains pressure on European prices, though Moldova offers a unique window and quality.
  • European Demand: Remains robust for premium, light-colored kernels; organic and high-purity products command premiums.

📊 Fundamentals: Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country 2024 Production (Est. t) Yr/Yr Change Stock Outlook
China 1,100,000 +3% Ample, increasing shares to Europe
United States 620,000 -2% High stocks, but declining exports to EU
Moldova 28,000 Stable High exportable surplus for quality grades
Ukraine 112,000 +1% Steady supplies, moderate demand
EU (Import needs) n.a. Strong, especially for non-Chinese supply

🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook

  • Moldova: Recent widespread rainfall has ensured technical ripeness and minimized shriveled kernels, mainly benefiting irrigated plantations.
    Weather forecast: Continued moderate temperatures (22–26°C), light rain events possible over next week—favorable for harvest and final kernel fill.
  • China: Harvest largely complete. Minor rainfall, stable growing conditions last month, supporting strong yields and quality.
  • US (California): Slightly cooler weather helped reduce heat stress; early survey indicates solid kernel size, but water access remains a lingering concern.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

  • 💡 Short-term: European buyers should secure early supply contracts, especially for premium kernels, ahead of potential upward movement if Chinese export pressure wanes.
  • 📉 Risks: Increased Chinese shipments or sudden weather disruptions could temper price gains.
  • 🚩 Suppliers: Moldovan growers with high-quality, irrigated output could negotiate price premiums in early procurement rounds.
  • 🔍 Monitor: Export flows from China and updated European demand conditions during main buying window (late September – November).
  • 🌱 Organic Focus: Continued price gap favors suppliers able to offer certified organic and high-purity lots (see IN and US offers).

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market Today (EUR/kg) D+1 D+2 D+3 Sentiment
Dalian FOB (Light Amber Pieces) 2.35 2.35–2.38 2.35–2.40 2.37–2.43 Slightly Up
London FOB (US Light Halves) 4.65 4.65–4.70 4.65–4.75 4.68–4.77 Firm
Moldova (Estimate, Kernels) 1.60 1.60–1.65 1.62–1.70 1.65–1.73 Stable to Up