This summer, the mango market has swung into a period of marked volatility and uncertainty, particularly impacting Israeli growers. Prices in Tel Aviv have recently plummeted to $2.70 per kilogram (€2.50), as a perfect storm of surging supply and weakened demand upends traditional patterns. Historically, Israel exported 85% of its mango crop to major European buyers such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands. However, an influx of Brazilian mangoes—redirected from the US market due to steep American tariffs—has flooded European shelves, sharply undercutting Israeli fruit on price and squeezing exporters’ margins.
Israeli mango producers are facing not just economic but also geopolitical headwinds: the market’s loss of access to buyers in the Gaza Strip, along with some European supermarket chains’ boycott calls, have further dampened prospects. Despite no formal EU ban as of this writing, the risk of suspended duty-free access to the European Union hovers large. On the ground, Israeli farmers—particularly in the Sea of Galilee region—report a struggle to shift product locally, anticipating a challenging finish to the season. With growers now pinning their hopes on an upcoming olive harvest, the mango market in 2024 stands as a cautionary tale of how global trade disruptions and shifting political winds can swiftly reshape agricultural fortunes.
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slices: 5 – 9 cm. Chunks: : 2 – 3 cm. Thickness: 2 mm. – 15 mm
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📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Delivery | Last Price (EUR/kg) |
Previous Price (EUR/kg) |
Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mango Fresh | Israel | Local (Tel Aviv) | 2.50 | ~3.30* | Bearish ⬇️ |
| Mango dried | VN (Hanoi) | FOB | 5.62 | 5.62 | Stable → |
| Mango dried | VN (Hanoi) | FOB | 5.85 | 5.85 | Stable → |
| Mango dried | TH (NL, Dordrecht) | FCA | 4.57 | 4.57 | Stable → |
*Estimated previous local fresh price for comparison.
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Oversupply in Europe: 2024 saw aggressive Brazilian exports redirected from the US to the EU, leading to excess supply and lower prices.
- Export Decline from Israel: Israeli exporters have been forced to reduce shipments as Europe becomes saturated with cheaper Brazilian product.
- Domestic Demand Weak:** Israeli farmers report poor local sales, with large unsold volumes in northern Israel.
- Geopolitical Factors: Loss of the Gaza market, plus boycott calls in Europe, are further pressuring demand for Israeli mangoes.
📊 Fundamentals
- Global Exports: Brazil has become the main supplier to the EU, with Israeli market share sharply down.
- US Tariffs: Recent US tariff hikes (50%) on Brazilian produce prompted a redirection of those exports to Europe, compounding Israel’s challenges.
- Inventories: High stocks reported in both European and Israeli cold stores, indicating slow turnover and continued price pressure.
- Dried Mango Market: Prices for dried mango are holding steady at €4.57–€5.85/kg (FOB/FCA, latest update 12 Sep 2025), reflecting a more stable specialty/niche market insulated from fresh supply shocks.
☀️ Weather Outlook for Main Growing Regions
- Northern Israel: Recent summer heatwaves and dryness have slightly accelerated fruit ripening, but not to the point of widespread spoilage. Some rainfall is expected over the next 5–7 days, which may assist with late-maturing fruit and ease irrigation demand.
- Brazil: Weather conditions remain favorable, with above-average yields forecast, supporting continued export potential.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023 Est. Production (kt) | 2024 Est. Production (kt) | Main Export Markets | Stocks Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 1,870 | 1,950 | EU, Middle East | Rising |
| Israel | ~60 | ~60 | EU, Russia, Local | High |
| India | 21,000 | 21,150 | Middle East, Global | Stable |
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- ❌ Sellers: Avoid holding large inventories—sell on spot/local markets where possible, as further price declines are possible.
- ✅ Buyers: Weakness in Israeli and European spot prices presents opportunities to secure long-term supply contracts at a discount.
- ⚠️ Exporters: Closely monitor potential EU regulatory actions and boycott risks. Prepare for quick portfolio diversification if duty-free access is lost.
- ⏳ Dried Mango: Prices remain stable and are less exposed to fresh fruit volatility; maintain regular supply chain schedules.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Fresh Mango)
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tel Aviv Market | 2.50 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.40 |
| European Spot (DE) | 2.80 | 2.75 | 2.70 | 2.65 |
Outlook: Further weakness expected amid oversupply and continued slow demand.
