The global cashew market has entered a bullish phase, fueled by Vietnam’s surging exports, elevated global prices, and notable shifts in demand patterns—most prominently, China overtaking the U.S. as the largest importer. According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the sector is on track to achieve USD 4.5 billion in export earnings for 2025, a target now appearing within reach thanks to firm end-of-year market activity. The August export figures set a new benchmark: 69,510 tons shipped for USD 472.79 million, with values tracking higher year-on-year as prices climb. Demand spikes in China, catalyzed by the Mid-Autumn Festival, reflect deeper structural changes in global consumption, while emerging markets like Saudi Arabia and Lithuania are also strengthening their import footprints.
Despite a slight dip in export volumes for the first eight months of 2025, average cashew prices have shot up nearly 20% over the year—underscoring tight supplies and unwavering demand in Asia, the U.S., and Europe as festive seasons approach. Industry experts, however, caution that maintaining this momentum hinges on innovation in processing, sustained quality assurance, and intelligent use of free trade agreements. As Vietnam powers ahead, the question is not just of record earnings, but also which markets and producers will command pricing and supply chains through the next harvest cycle.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Cashew kernels
WW240
FOB 7.75 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
WS
FOB 5.75 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
SP
FOB 4.30 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Cashew Kernel Prices – Key Markets
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WW240 | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 7.75 | 7.75 | 2025-09-12 | Stable/Strong |
| WS | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 5.75 | 5.75 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| SP | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 4.30 | 4.30 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| WW320 | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.85 | 6.85 | 2025-09-12 | Steady/Rising |
| W320 (organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 8.55 | 8.59 | 2025-09-12 | Slight weakening |
| W450 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 6.20 | 6.24 | 2025-09-12 | Downward pressure |
| WW320 | NL | Dordrecht | FCA | 5.20 | 5.20 | 2025-09-12 | Unchanged |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Chinese demand surges: China became Vietnam’s top buyer with a 48% year-on-year jump in value and a 30.7% increase in volume in the first eight months of 2025. August imports set a new record, supported by festival-driven consumption.
- US and EU demand steady but lagging China: US demand dropped nearly 30% YoY, while emerging markets—Saudi Arabia (+27.7%), Lithuania (+26.9%)—are growing rapidly.
- Higher prices buoy export earnings: Vietnam’s average export price YTD is USD 6,804/t (+19.4% YoY), indicating resilient demand and underpinning stronger trade flows.
- End-of-year seasonality: Western and Asian year-end holidays historically support peak cashew consumption, likely sustaining robust export momentum through Q4.
- Supply-side tightness: Modest volume declines (-1.3% YTD) contrast with double-digit export value growth (+17.9%), highlighting constrained supply amid swelling demand.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Data
- Vietnam’s 2025 export goal: USD 4.5 billion (needs USD 1.22 billion in final 4 months; seen as attainable by industry leaders).
- Global pricing power: Vietnam sets global pricing benchmarks, with Indian and Dutch markets following but showing mild downward adjustments.
- Export structure: Total Jan-Aug 2025 shipments: 482,300 tons (USD 3.28B). China, US, and Netherlands are primary destinations, but market diversification is increasing.
- Competitor landscape: India’s prices for key grades (W320, W240, W450) have seen small recent declines but are still well-supported by international demand.
⛅ Weather Watch & Crop Outlook
- Vietnam: Weather remains favorable, with adequate rainfall and no major drought/flood incidents reported in principal growing regions. Plantation health is conducive to meeting export targets, barring late-season weather anomalies.
- India & Africa: Seasonal monsoons have remained within normal ranges. No significant threats observed for the upcoming harvest; watch for updates as South Asian weather patterns can rapidly shift.
🌏 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2025 (Est.) Production (tons) | 2025 (Est.) Exports (tons) | YTD Export Value (USD M) | Growth Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | ~600,000 | 482,300 | 3,280 | Rising |
| India | ~700,000 | Est. 170,000 | N/A | Stable/Declining |
| Africa (aggregated) | >2,000,000 | Predominantly raw exports; kernels limited | N/A | Potential growth |
| China (importer) | N/A | N/A | 687 | Strong demand |
🔥 Trading & Strategic Outlook
- Expect steady-to-firm prices for main grades (WW240, WW320) as Chinese and holiday-driven year-end demand tighten market conditions.
- Monitor quality differentials: Premiums for organic and high-grade product remain stable but are susceptible to consumer income trends in key markets.
- Spot market may exhibit mild corrections after major festivals but overall trend remains bullish into Q1 2026.
- Procurement advice: Secure forward contracts for Q4 and early 2026 to lock in favorable prices, particularly for WW240/WW320 grades.
- Watch ongoing trade agreements and policy shifts in Vietnam and India for possible impact on processing sector and export logistics.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Kernel Type | Current (EUR/kg) | Forecast | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (VN) | WW240 | 7.75 | 7.75-7.80 | Steady/Up |
| Hanoi (VN) | WW320 | 6.85 | 6.85-6.90 | Steady |
| New Delhi (IN) | W320 (organic) | 8.55 | 8.50-8.60 | Slight downward bias |
| Dordrecht (NL) | WW320 | 5.20 | 5.15-5.25 | Flat |
