US Soybean Market Update: Early Harvest Progress Bolsters Stability, Eyes on Weather Risks

The 2024–25 US soybean harvest has commenced at a steady pace, with early signs pointing to stable and favorable progress across the Midwest’s primary producing states. According to the USDA’s latest crop progress report, 5% of the nation’s soybean acreage was harvested by September 15—up slightly from 4% at this time last year, but just behind the five-year average of 6%. This modest advancement is largely attributed to recent dry weather patterns, which have improved field accessibility and enhanced crop conditions in crucial states like Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska. These favorable harvest environments have reduced grain moisture and enabled efficient early season pickups, but market participants remain alert to potential late-season risks—especially unexpected rain or early frost, which could negatively impact yield and quality for the balance of the crop.

Early data points to a promising start, though analysts caution that definitive yield outcomes will be clearer as the harvest progresses. The next few weeks are critical—both for crop quality and the global supply outlook, as the world closely monitors US output. The current stability in US harvest is a reassuring signal for both domestic processors and international buyers, especially amid uncertain weather in South America and fluctuating demand in key Asian markets. Nevertheless, the soybean market retains a cautious undertone, with traders keeping a close watch on weather volatility and global stock levels. As such, sentiment remains balanced, awaiting fresh production and export data to inform next moves.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type/Grade	Organic	FOB Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Last Updated	Sentiment
China (Beijing)	Yellow, 99.8% purity	Yes	0.76	0.78	2025-09-17	Weak (↓0.02)
China (Beijing)	Yellow, 99.5% purity	No	0.67	0.69	2025-09-17	Weak (↓0.02)
USA (Washington D.C.)	No. 2	No	0.39	0.39	2025-09-12	Stable
India (New Delhi)	Sortex Clean	No	0.76	0.76	2025-09-12	Stable
Ukraine (Odesa)	–	No	0.34	0.34	2025-09-12	Stable
India (New Delhi)	Soya Powder, Lecithin	Yes	2.77	2.77	2025-09-11	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Harvest Progress: 5% of U.S. acreage harvested (ahead of last year, trailing the five-year average)
• Main States: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska showing early robust activity; Illinois expected to pick up shortly
• Export Demand: Major importers (China, EU) closely monitor U.S. supplies amid tight South American stocks and uncertain Brazilian weather
• Stocks: Global inventories slightly down from last year, adding upward price pressure if any weather issue arises

📊 Fundamental Data & Market Drivers

• USDA Progress Reports: Indicate normal seasonal pace, but vigilance for late frost or rain persists
• Speculative Positioning: Funds remain moderately net-long, reflecting cautious optimism
• Acreage & Yields: USDA’s latest planting data implies only minor acreage loss compared to prior estimates
• International Competition: Brazil’s delayed planting due to dry conditions could shift more demand to US beans for Q4

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Midwest (US): Forecasts suggest continued dry and warm conditions through the next week, beneficial for harvest but increased risk if rains do not materialize for later-planted beans
• South America: Brazil’s delayed rains may trim early planting, potentially tightening the global balance later in the season
• Key Risk Events: Unexpected rainfall or early cold snaps could reduce yields, particularly in North Dakota and Minnesota

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Prod. (Mt)	2023/24 Prod. (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Trend
USA	115 (est.)	112	8.0	Slight Increase
Brazil	155 (est.)	156	16.5	Stable/Down
Argentina	48 (est.)	42	6.1	Rebound
China (imports)	–	–	4.5	Unchanged

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🟠 Producers: Consider locking in prices on rallies given early yield uncertainty
• 🟠 Traders: Monitor Midwest weather and Brazil sowing closely; volatility likely on any production news
• 🟢 Importers: Current dip in Chinese and US FOB prices may present short-term buying opportunities
• 🔴 Risks: Watch for fast-changing weather, USDA yield revisions, and South American competition

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Major Exchanges & FOB)

Location	Current FOB Price (€/kg)	3-Day Forecast (€/kg)	Trend
CBOT (ref. US No.2, FOB, Wash. DC)	0.39	0.39–0.40	Stable, slight upward bias if weather holds dry
Euronext (ref. EU imported)	0.67 (China, yellow)	0.67–0.69	Stable to slightly higher after recent dip
China (FOB, Beijing, organic)	0.76	0.76–0.77	Stable, possible firming if global bids rise