The global peanuts market is currently in a phase of cautious stability, reflecting nuanced shifts in crop area data, evolving weather patterns, and changing farmer preferences. According to the latest figures released by the Ministry of Agriculture, groundnut (peanuts) acreage in India, one of the world’s top producers, rose by just 1% year-on-year for the 2024 planting season. This seemingly modest increase—from 4.38 million hectares in 2023 to 4.42 million hectares—comes amid regional variations in monsoon rainfall and a complex interplay of market forces.
Notably, while oilseed crops overall have gained favor due to strong demand and price support mechanisms, cotton acreage has declined by 3%—a reflection of shifting farmer priorities, weather-induced delays, and mounting pest pressures. These changes hint at a subtle but meaningful transformation in India’s broader cropping patterns, which could influence peanut market dynamics through supply, pricing, and trade flows in the upcoming marketing season.
Amid these dynamics, peanut prices have remained resilient but slightly softened across key varieties, both in India and Brazil, as seen in spot transactions and export offers. With a supportive but not exuberant global demand environment—and market participants watching closely for the next cues from weather developments, government policies, and global stock trends—the outlook calls for both caution and alertness in trading and procurement strategies.
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Peanuts
roasted split, 60/70/80
FOB 1.11 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
birdfeed
CFR 1.01 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
raw
FOB 1.26 €/kg
(from BR)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Delivery Terms | Current Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasted split 60/70/80 | IN – New Delhi | FOB | 1.11 | -0.01 | 2025-09-12 | Neutral to Slightly Bearish |
| Birdfeed | IN – New Delhi | CFR | 1.01 | -0.01 | 2025-09-12 | Neutral |
| Raw | BR – Brasília | FOB | 1.26 | -0.01 | 2025-09-12 | Steady |
| Java 70-80 | IN – New Delhi | FOB | 1.00 | -0.01 | 2025-09-12 | Neutral |
| Java 60-70 | IN – New Delhi | FOB | 0.98 | -0.01 | 2025-09-12 | Neutral |
| Java 50-60 | IN – New Delhi | FOB | 1.06 | -0.01 | 2025-09-12 | Neutral |
| Bold 60-70 | IN – New Delhi | FOB | 0.98 | -0.01 | 2025-09-12 | Neutral |
| Bold 50-60 | IN – New Delhi | FOB | 1.00 | -0.01 | 2025-09-12 | Neutral |
| Bold 40-50 | IN – Gujarat – Gondal | FOB | 1.02 | -0.01 | 2025-09-12 | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Indian groundnut area up by just 1% to 4.42m ha in 2024, signaling mostly steady production prospects—pending weather impacts at pod filling stage.
- Cotton area is down 3%, suggesting some switch to oilseeds, but total oilseed acreage rose 3% to 19.86m ha—puts competitive pressure on peanuts but supports broader oilseed supply.
- Export demand from EU and China remains firm but not robust; freight and logistical issues are easing, supporting smoother shipments.
- Brazilian crop is steady, with no major supply-side shock, but global carryover stocks are average to slightly below average after last season’s weather disruptions.
📊 Fundamentals
- Pricing support from government procurement and minimum support policies is underpinning groundnut values in India, deterring further sharp drops.
- Speculative interest is muted, with market activity mainly driven by exporters and end-user demand, rather than funds.
- Competing crops: Farmer profitability concerns are shifting sowing choices—wheat and oilseeds are competitive, cotton is less favored.
- Global stocks: 2024/25 forecasts project stable stocks at Indian and global levels, similar to last year.
🌦 Weather Outlook
- India: Monsoon in 2024 was delayed in some regions but has since caught up in key producing states (Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh). Near-normal to mildly deficient rainfall is forecast for the next couple of weeks, with moderate risk for late-season dryness—requires monitoring for pod fill and quality impacts.
- Brazil: Weather is generally favorable, with timely rainfall in major peanut belts, supporting good vegetative and reproductive development. No significant heatwaves reported.
- Risk: Watch for possible late-season Indian dry spells or heavy rains, which could impact quality parameters and harvest timing.
🌐 Global Production & Inventory Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Production (M t) | 2024/25 Est. Production (M t) | Stocks (M t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 6.7 | 6.8 | 1.17 |
| China | 17.5 | 17.6 | 4.2 |
| USA | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| Brazil | 0.6 | 0.62 | 0.1 |
| EU | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.05 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- End-users/traders: Consider gradual procurement, as prices are likely to stay soft-to-steady short term, with potential bounce if late-season weather disrupts Indian crop.
- Exporters: Monitor quality and shipment readiness; buyers in EU and China are price sensitive but committed to steady offtake.
- Farmers: Stay updated on late monsoon conditions and government support levels; a patient selling approach could pay off if weather turns adverse later in the season.
- Watch: Monsoon developments in India; global oilseed price movements; possible new policies or minimum support price adjustments.
⏭️ 3-Day Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Product Type | Current Price (€/kg) | Forecast Range (€/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | Roasted split 60/70/80 | 1.11 | 1.10 – 1.13 |
| Brasília (FOB) | Raw | 1.26 | 1.25 – 1.28 |
| New Delhi (CFR) | Birdfeed | 1.01 | 1.00 – 1.02 |
Related posts:
Indian Peanut Market Faces Record Crop and Weather Risks: Prices Decline Despite State Support
Peanut Market Dynamics 2025: Government Support, Global Oversupply, and Price Prospects
Peanut Market Dynamics 2025: Government Support, Global Oversupply, and Price Prospects
Peanut Market Eyes Calm Harvest: Gujarat Weather Boosts Yields, Prices Stable, Exports Poised to Rise