Chickpea markets are currently experiencing notable downward pressure, reflecting a combination of ample imports—particularly from Australia—muted demand by stockiest and millers, and a cautious sentiment ahead of the Diwali festival. Traders are increasingly wary of further price declines, discouraging aggressive buying and leading to subdued activity across major Indian mandis. The expected arrivals of new domestic crops from states such as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, set for February–March, add to the perception of a well-supplied market for the near term.
On the import front, Australian chickpeas—quoted at USD 639–645 per tone for end-2024 delivery—present a strong price incentive for buyers versus domestic supplies. Domestic price benchmarks, such as those in Delhi’s Lawrence Road mandi, hover between USD 713–718 per tonne. Despite trace improvements in demand linked to upcoming festivals, any significant price recovery is unlikely without a clear change in fundamentals, such as a weather-driven supply shock or marked demand surge.
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Chickpeas dried
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Chickpeas dried
count 42-44, 12 mm
FOB 1.66 €/kg
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Chickpeas dried
count 60-62, 8 mm
FOB 1.22 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Latest Chickpeas Market Benchmarks
| Origin | Type | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/tonne) | Previous Price (EUR/tonne) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | Count 75-80, 8 mm | Mexico City | FOB | 1.14 | 1.14 | 2025-09-12 | Neutral/Weak |
| Mexico | Count 42-44, 12 mm | Mexico City | FOB | 1.66 | 1.66 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| India | Count 60-62, 8 mm | New Delhi | FOB | 1.22 | 1.22 | 2025-09-12 | Weak |
| India | Count 58-60, 9 mm | New Delhi | FOB | 1.23 | 1.23 | 2025-09-12 | Weak |
| India | Count 46-48, 10 mm | New Delhi | FOB | 1.27 | 1.27 | 2025-09-12 | Weak |
| India | Count 44-46, 11 mm | New Delhi | FOB | 1.29 | 1.29 | 2025-09-12 | Weak |
| India | Count 42-44, 12 mm | New Delhi | FOB | 1.28 | 1.28 | 2025-09-12 | Weak |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Market Drivers & Trends
- Imports from Australia at USD 639–645/tonne undercut domestic prices, discouraging local buying.
- Domestic harvest from key states (Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan), starting Feb-Mar, will keep supplies ample in near term.
- Low stockist/miller buying as holding off on fresh positions due to bearish sentiment.
- Festive demand is emerging, but likely insufficient to reverse price trends unless coupled with supply disruption.
- Ahead of Diwali, 300–400 truckloads expected to arrive in major markets, tempering price hopes further.
📊 Fundamentals: Global & Domestic Position
- Indian Chickpea Output: Harvest in Feb–Mar from top states, medium-to-late monsoon critical for final yields.
- Major Exporters: Australia, Mexico, and India continue as the main global suppliers.
- Global Stocks: Carryover in Australia is comfortable; Indian stocks likely adequate barring weather shock.
- Speculative Positions: Very limited, with market mainly driven by physical flows and trader sentiment.
🌦️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions
- Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan (India): Recent weather patterns are broadly favorable. Mid-September saw average to above-average rainfall, supporting chickpea sowing and early crop establishment.
- Australia: Spring rains have benefited the crop, with forecast models suggesting mostly dry and warm weather until harvest—generally supporting quality and output without significant stress.
- Potential Risks: Any abrupt shift to drought or prolonged rains as harvest nears could trim yields and support prices. Currently, no such events are forecasted.
🌐 Comparative Table: Global Production & Stocks
| Country | Est. Production 2024/25 (mln t) | Est. Ending Stocks (mln t) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 11.5 | ~1.2 | Stable |
| Australia | 1.1 | 0.3 | Slightly higher YoY |
| Mexico | 0.22 | 0.06 | Stable |
| EU/Other | 0.55 | 0.10 | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term sentiment remains bearish due to ample supply from imports and new domestic crop arrivals.
- Stockists should avoid aggressive accumulation; prefer hand-to-mouth approach until post-Diwali demand trend clarifies.
- Importers may find continued parity advantage for Australian origins; keep an eye on further price dips as buying opportunity.
- Producers in India and Mexico may face pricing headwinds, so consider forward contracts with buyers for risk mitigation.
- Monitor late-season weather for disruptive events that could change the supply-side narrative.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Region/Exchange | Latest Close (EUR/tonne) | Forecast (Day 1) | Forecast (Day 2) | Forecast (Day 3) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi FOB (Count 42-44, 12 mm) |
1.28 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.26 | Bearish |
| Mexico City FOB (Count 42-44, 12 mm) |
1.66 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.65 | Stable/Soft |
| Mumbai (Australian Imports, USD) |
~0.60 (converted) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.59 | Weak |
