Jeera (Cumin) Market Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Weak Demand, Stable Arrivals

The cumin market, especially in India—the world’s leading producer and exporter—continues to navigate a period of heightened arrivals against a backdrop of waning demand. Recent days have seen consistent deliveries of Jeera in major hubs such as Unjha (Gujarat), with daily volumes hovering between 10,000 and 17,000 bags. While this steady supply reflects farmers’ response to recent price rebounds, it has not been matched by buying intensity from domestic processors or international importers.

The market is stuck in a wait-and-watch mode, with traders wary of tepid export demand, escalating competition from alternate origins, and volatile currency movements. Prices have softened in both spot and futures markets, and overall sentiment has tilted bearish. Only a resurgence in export orders or a pronounced dip in arrivals seems capable of stemming the current decline. For now, the cumin market appears well-supplied but vulnerable, and participants are advised to keep a close eye on critical demand cues moving forward.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Origin	Product	Purity/Grade	Location	Type	Currency	Latest Price	Previous Price	Sentiment
IN	Cumin seeds	Whole, Grade – A, Organic	New Delhi	FOB	EUR/kg	5.14	5.14	Stable
IN	Cumin seeds	Grade – A, 99%	New Delhi	FOB	EUR/kg	2.32	2.32	Stable
IN	Cumin seeds	Grade – A, 98%	New Delhi	FOB	EUR/kg	2.17	2.17	Stable
IN	Cumin seeds	99%	New Delhi	FOB	EUR/kg	2.33	2.33	Stable
IN	Cumin seeds	98%	Unjha (Gujarat)	FOB	EUR/kg	2.32	2.32	Stable
EG	Cumin seeds	99.9%	Kairo	FOB	EUR/kg	4.80	4.77	Slightly Bullish
SY	Cumin seed	–	Dordrecht (NL)	FCA	EUR/kg	3.75	3.90	Bearish

• Spot mandi prices in India (converted): $46–$50 per 20 kg (approx. €2.10–2.30/kg).
• NCDEX Jeera futures remain under pressure; weekly losses align with physical market trends.
• Sentiment: Indian origin stable to soft; slight firmness for premium Egyptian cumin.

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Arrivals: 10,000–17,000 bags/day at Indian mandis; steady inflow, especially from Gujarat and Rajasthan.
• Demand: Subdued from both domestic spice processors and overseas buyers; inventory buildup at trading centers.
• Exports: Soft due to increased competition (notably from Syria and Egypt) and shipping/currency uncertainties.
• End-stock movement: Farmers releasing older stocks; no aggressive pipeline buying visible.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Consistent arrivals keep spot market well-supplied, preventing supply shocks.
• International competition (Egypt, Syria) amplifies pressure on Indian offerings.
• No significant weather threats currently reported; recent Indian monsoon was favorable for cumin planting and yield.
• Currency volatility and logistical costs moderate India’s export competitiveness.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• India (Gujarat, Rajasthan): Weather remains mostly dry and conducive for post-harvest handling; no immediate risk to available stocks.
• Short-term forecast: Temperatures expected in the upper 30s °C range; no major rainfall events forecasted, supporting steady mandi operations.
• Global context: Egypt and Syria report normal crop conditions; supply disruptions unlikely in the next month.

🌏 Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	Est. 2024 Output (t)	2023 Output (t)	Major Export Destinations
India	~370,000	372,000	Bangladesh, UAE, US, Europe
Syrian Arab Republic	~25,000	28,000	Europe, Middle East
Egypt	~21,000	19,000	Middle East, US

• India continues as the dominant global supplier but faces tighter margins and market share pressure from rival origins.
• Stocks at Indian traders/mandis are ample; risk of sharp price spikes is low unless export demand rebounds strongly.

📆 Outlook & Trading Strategy

• Monitor export inquiries closely: any upturn could stabilize or uplift prices.
• Buyers: Consider gradual stockbuilding if you can capture quality lots near the lower range of current values (€2.10–2.30/kg).
• Sellers/Farmers: Prioritize regular releases to avoid inventory pile-up; don’t hold out for unlikely immediate price rallies.
• Traders: Take a cautious, rangebound approach—watch for signals of external demand or adverse weather in competing regions.
• Risk factors: Escalating logistical costs, rapid currency depreciation, and supply-side shocks in Syria/Egypt.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Market/Exchange	Product	Last Close (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
NCDEX (India)	Jeera (Cumin)	2.15	2.10 – 2.30	Soft to Stable
Unjha (India, Spot)	Jeera (Cumin)	2.20	2.10 – 2.25	Weak
Kairo (Egypt)	Cumin seeds	4.80	4.75 – 4.85	Slightly Bullish

• Unless export demand revives, prices likely to remain in a narrow, weak range through the next several sessions.