The global rice market is showing notable resilience, with Basmati rice prices holding steady in major trading hubs. A surge in demand from stockiest, together with the onset of the festival buying season, has established a floor under current price levels. Notably, active export demand—especially from Middle Eastern countries—is supporting this price firmness, and market participants believe that even upcoming arrivals of fresh supplies are unlikely to trigger significant declines. In fact, any downward movement is projected to be marginal and short-lived.
The current fine Basmati trading levels hover around USD 74.20 per quintal, with only a limited potential for a minor dip, reflecting solid fundamentals and steady global trade flows. On the supply side, exporters in India and Vietnam report stable output levels, while logistics remain effective despite earlier concerns of disruptions in Southeast Asia. With global stocks balanced and premium rice varieties in high demand for the festive period, stakeholders are mainly focused on short-term signals such as weather updates, harvest progress, and the continuing strength of export orders. All in all, the rice market stands on strong ground as we move deeper into the final quarter of the year.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Rice
all golden, sella
FOB 1.05 €/kg
(from IN)
Rice
all steam, pr11
FOB 0.56 €/kg
(from IN)
Rice
al ısteam, sharbati
FOB 0.71 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Recent Rice Market Levels
| Type | Origin | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All golden, sella | IN | New Delhi | 1.05 | 0.00 | Stable |
| All steam, pr11 | IN | New Delhi | 0.56 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Al ısteam, sharbati | IN | New Delhi | 0.71 | 0.00 | Stable |
| White sella, 1121 creamy | IN | New Delhi | 0.89 | 0.00 | Stable |
| White, basmati (organic) | IN | New Delhi | 1.91 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Red rice | VN | Hanoi | 0.87 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Long white 5% | VN | Hanoi | 0.58 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Jasmine | VN | Hanoi | 0.60 | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Export supply of Basmati rice remains steady from India and Vietnam.
- Robust offtake by Middle East buyers is sustaining elevated price levels.
- Domestic demand is up as festivals boost retail consumption, mitigating any negative price pressure from new arrivals.
- No major policy changes or export restrictions have impacted trade flows in recent weeks.
- As per the latest USDA and FAO reports, global rice output in 2024/25 is forecast at near record levels, but significant stock drawdowns are not expected in major exporting countries.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Stable prices across all major FOB points indicate a balanced market – no significant volatility recorded in the last week.
- Speculators are neutral; no aggressive long or short positioning observed.
- Ongoing festival demand in India and increased purchase activity by stockists are supporting the underlying firm tone.
- Exporters highlight that Middle East remains a key destination, with consistent orders reported.
- International freight has normalized post-monsoon, ensuring smooth shipments.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- India’s main producing regions (Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh): Monsoon withdrawal complete, with above-average rainfall during the main crop period reported. Current conditions favor sufficient soil moisture, supporting a healthy late-season crop.
- Vietnam: Seasonal rains tapering off; no major flooding or drought. Weather patterns favor steady harvest progress.
- Thailand: Recent forecasts point to below-normal rainfall but irrigation reserves remain adequate.
Overall, there are no immediate weather-based threats to South or Southeast Asia’s rice output. Output projections remain robust, further supporting the market’s balanced tone.
🌏 Global Stocks & Production Table
| Country | 2024/25 Production (million tons) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (million tons) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 130.0 | 36.5 | Largest exporter, solid stocks |
| Vietnam | 44.0 | 7.4 | Strong export program |
| Thailand | 32.0 | 5.5 | Normal crop |
| China | 206.0 | 109.1 | Major producer, less export |
| Pakistan | 9.5 | 1.3 | Steady |
| Nigeria | 5.5 | 1.6 | Largest importer |
| EU | 2.7 | 0.7 | Limited production |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Exporters: Maintain offer prices—demand from core overseas markets firm. Monitor new crop arrivals and festival season sales.
- For Importers: Secure near-term needs promptly—risks of any notable price drop are low for the remainder of the festive season.
- For Traders: Range-bound trading expected, but buying dips of USD 2.40–3.60/quintal below current levels recommended if fresh arrivals increase temporarily.
- For Processors: Sourcing for value-added segments (e.g., Basmati, specialty rice) should continue at present pace—raw material cost risk remains limited in short term.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- New Delhi FOB (IN, Basmati): 1.05–1.07 EUR/kg (steady to marginally firm)
- Hanoi FOB (VN, Long Grain): 0.58–0.60 EUR/kg (stable)
- Basmati (Export, USD): 74.20–76.00 per quintal (limited downside, strong festival support)
