The Indian peanuts market is currently navigating a period of volatility, marked by surging arrivals from the new Kharif crop and export disruptions that are straining both price stability and stakeholder confidence. In central trading hubs like Delhi, Gujarat, and Rajasthan, groundnut arrivals have risen sharply, ushering in a phase of abundant domestic supply. While this would typically signal good news for processors and exporters, the increase in arrivals has been met with lukewarm enthusiasm from oil millers and overseas buyers. Demand has softened due to ongoing international trade disputes—especially with major buyer Indonesia—creating a bottleneck at Indian ports. As of now, spot market prices hover around USD 87.00 per 100 kg, marginally above last year’s level, but are feeling the gravitational pull of excess supply and uncertain foreign demand.
Market experts expect the next 10–15 days to be critical; more arrivals will likely intensify downward price pressure if international disputes remain unsolved. The government has intervened by raising procurement prices for the 2025–26 season to USD 54.50–60.50 per 100 kg for high-quality varieties, aiming to protect farmers from the brunt of a potential market glut. However, with 280,000 tons of export losses already sustained this season and ongoing trade friction, the room for price resilience is shrinking. For exporters, traders, and farmers alike, a rapid resolution of the Indonesian import issue is essential. If resolved, prices may stabilize or even recover; if not, market softness is set to continue, confining short-term values within USD 72–88 per 100 kg. Policymakers and stakeholders are urged to act swiftly to prevent further erosion of price support and export momentum.
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Peanuts
roasted split, 60/70/80
FOB 1.11 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
birdfeed
CFR 1.01 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
raw
FOB 1.26 €/kg
(from BR)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product / Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peanuts, roasted split 60/70/80 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.11 | 1.11 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Peanuts, birdfeed | IN | New Delhi | CFR | 1.01 | 1.01 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Peanuts, raw | BR | Brasília | FOB | 1.26 | 1.26 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Peanuts, java 70-80 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Peanuts, java 60-70 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.98 | 0.98 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Peanuts, java 50-60 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.06 | 1.06 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Peanuts, bold 60-70 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.98 | 0.98 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Peanuts, bold 50-60 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Peanuts, bold 40-50 | IN | Gujarat – Gondal | FOB | 1.02 | 1.02 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Sharp increase in new crop arrivals in key areas of Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Delhi.
- Government procurement for 2025–26 at USD 54.50–60.50/100 kg supports baseline prices.
- Spot prices at USD 87/100 kg are currently above the previous year’s level but coming under pressure.
- Exports have already fallen ~280,000 tons this season vs. usual 7.46 million tons exported annually as India’s trade dispute with Indonesia drags on.
- Demand from oil mills, exporters, and birdfeed manufacturers is tepid amid export uncertainties.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Export challenges: Dispute with Indonesian buyers may cut India’s export ability sharply if unresolved; delayed port shipments intensify downside risks for domestic market.
- Domestic support: Higher procurement prices and good crop quality should help prevent a drastic collapse.
- Speculative Positioning: Cautious approach by traders, limited forward deals until export situation clarifies.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Latest weather data for Gujarat and Rajasthan indicates mostly dry conditions over the next week, supporting harvest operations and further arrivals.
- No significant weather events forecasted to impact quality or logistics in the short term.
- For Brazil’s crop, favorable weather reported across major producing states, supporting stable international prices.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production (est. Million Tons) | 2024/25 Exports (est. Million Tons) | Key Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 7.7 | 7.46 (est.) | New arrivals, export issues with Indonesia |
| China | 17.5 | 0.8 | Strong domestic demand limits exports |
| USA | 2.8 | 0.7 | Stable production and exports |
| Brazil | 4.0 | 0.5 | Good weather & stable market |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Watch export dispute with Indonesia closely; resolution could shift price direction sharply upward.
- Expect continued price softness in domestic market over next 2–3 weeks as fresh Kharif arrivals increase and port congestion persists.
- Procurement at or near government support price is advisable for risk-averse buyers.
- Exporters should lock in contracts carefully and focus on alternative markets if Indonesian issue remains unresolved.
- Monitor weather changes and logistics updates, though current forecasts are favorable for harvest continuation in India and Brazil.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price (USD/100 kg) | 3-Day Forecast (USD/100 kg) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (Spot) | 87.00 | 82.00 – 86.00 | ↘️ |
| Gujarat (FOB) | Approx. 86.00 | 81.00 – 85.00 | ↘️ |
| Brasília (FOB) | N/A (EUR 1.26/kg) | Stable | ➡️ |
