Wheat Market Holds Steady Amid Modest Arrivals and Global Headwinds

Wheat markets have shown notable stability in recent sessions, with prices across key regional exchanges holding firm despite a slight retreat in global benchmarks. The combination of limited arrivals and steady late-season demand has effectively cushioned domestic prices from bearish pressure witnessed on international boards. In Ahmedabad, wheat maintained a trading corridor between $38.50–$40.50 per quintal, with premium qualities reaching up to $41.20. Market arrivals remained moderate, ensuring a balanced supply-demand environment and averting major corrections. Traders across India have observed similar patterns, noting that the government’s cautious stock releases and measured procurement strategies remain critical in supporting prices.

Internationally, wheat futures have lost ground—CBOT wheat shed 1.42% to close at $47.28 per bushel, and Paris futures dropped 1.71%. Yet, this softness abroad has not dramatically impacted India’s localized market, owing to contained supply and manageable inventories. As harvest progression varies by region and with weather remaining cooperative in most major growing areas, market participants anticipate stability to be the near-term hallmark. Geopolitical developments, the update cycle of USDA reports, and the forthcoming acreage figures will be closely watched for new cues on direction.

📈 Prices

Market	Product Specification	Location	Delivery Terms	Price	Prev. Price	Currency	Updated	Sentiment
Ahmedabad (IN)	Standard	Ahmedabad	Spot	38.50–41.20	38.50	USD/quintal	N/A	Neutral/Stable
Himatnagar (IN)	Standard	Himatnagar	Spot	38.80–40.00	38.80	USD/quintal	N/A	Neutral
CBOT	Protein min. 11.5%	US (Chicago)	Futures	47.28	48.00	USD/bushel	Current	Bearish
Euronext (Paris)	Protein min. 11.0%	FR (Paris)	Futures	0.29	0.29	EUR/kg	2025-09-19	Bearish
Kyiv (UA)	Protein min. 11.5%	Kyiv	FCA	0.24	0.24	EUR/kg	2025-09-22	Stable
Odesa (UA)	Protein min. 11.5%	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0.25	EUR/kg	2025-09-22	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Limited Arrivals: Key markets (Ahmedabad: 1,300 quintals, Himatnagar: 400 quintals) saw modest arrivals, with unchanged or gently firm prices reflecting tight supply.
• Steady Demand: Consumption remains stable across urban and rural segments, providing a cushion against price volatility.
• Global Influence: Despite international declines, the domestic market is insulated by inventory controls and government tactical releases.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA & Global Reports: The latest USDA WASDE report signals ample global wheat stocks, though year-on-year inventories are slightly tighter in key exporting countries (US, Russia, Ukraine).
• India: Procurement is steady. No significant changes in minimum support prices.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains net short on global wheat, contributing to the softness in global futures.
• Comparison to Previous Report: Like the prior period, the domestic market remains largely unresponsive to global weakness due to low arrivals and stable demand.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• India (Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana): Current weather is dry and favorable for harvesting and post-harvest handling; little to no rainfall expected in the next 5 days.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Mild temperatures with recent showers, positive for late crop development but not triggering supply concerns.
• US Midwest: Temperatures normal to above-normal, limited precipitation, ideal for late-season fieldwork.
• Europe (France, Germany): Mixed forecasts; rain in northwest, but generally not threatening major harvest regions.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024 Prod. Estimate (m t)	YoY Change	Stocks (m t)
US	49.5	-2%	16.1
Russia	84.0	0%	17.8
Ukraine	22.0	+1%	3.2
India	108.5	+0.5%	17.6
EU	131.5	-0.5%	10.9

🔍 Market Drivers

• Key Reports: Latest USDA and government updates continue to point toward firmness in stocks. Watch for the upcoming acreage/sowing reports for directional cues.
• Government Interventions: Stock releases remain measured, preventing overhang in spot markets.
• Speculation & Funds: International investors remain risk-averse amid ample global supply.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers can wait for possible minor dips in international markets but should not expect sharp declines in domestic prices due to supply discipline.
• Sellers advised to release inventory steadily to benefit from resilient market tone.
• Exporters should monitor CBOT and Euronext for arbitrage opportunities as spreads widen.
• Processors/End-users: Cover near-term needs, but pace fresh purchases in line with new government releases.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Ahmedabad/Himatnagar: Expect prices to remain steady at $38.50–$40.50/quintal with negligible fluctuations.
• CBOT: Mild downside risk; projected range $47.00–$47.50/bushel.
• Euronext: Sideways, with likely range 0.28–0.30 EUR/kg.
• Ukraine FOB: Prices likely to stay within a tight range (0.19–0.25 EUR/kg).