Subdued demand continues to weigh heavily on the global garlic market, with prices lingering at the lower end of the recent range and participants reporting ongoing caution. Despite stable daily arrivals—about 1,000 quintals in major markets—buyers showed limited interest, preventing any tangible recovery in prices. In India’s Gondal market, outstanding premium-quality garlic fetched between USD 44.90 and USD 48.10 per quintal, while medium-quality lots changed hands at USD 40.10–44.90, and lower-quality grades remained under pressure at USD 26.90–33.50 per quintal. Similar market softness was echoed in Rajkot, where daily arrivals were recorded at 300 quintals and prices traded between USD 26.90 and USD 32.20 per quintal. Compared to the last reporting period, these figures signify negligible recovery.
Industry leaders and traders remain cautious, hopeful that the looming festival season may revive demand and subsequently lift market sentiment and prices. However, in the absence of immediate fundamental shifts, no significant price upside is expected in the short run. Market sentiment reflects a waiting game, hinging largely on demand revival and favorable weather conditions in main growing zones. The current scenario, characterized by stable arrivals and stagnant demand, sets the stage for any potential festive-driven market reversal, but risks remain prominent if demand continues to lag.
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Garlic
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FOB 6.63 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Market | Quality | Price Range (USD/quintal) | Latest Price Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gondal | Premium | 44.90–48.10 | ↓ (stable to weak) | Bearish |
| Gondal | Medium | 40.10–44.90 | ↓ (stable to weak) | Bearish |
| Gondal | Low | 26.90–33.50 | ↓ (stable) | Bearish |
| Rajkot | All | 26.90–32.20 | ↓ (stable) | Bearish |
| Product | Type | Quality | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg FOB) | Change | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garlic | Powder | Organic | India | New Delhi | 6.63 € | 0% (stable) | 2025-09-19 |
| Garlic | Fresh | Conventional | Egypt | Kairo | 1.00 € | 0% (stable) | 2025-09-19 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals: Daily arrivals in key Indian markets near 1,000 quintals; Rajkot at 300 quintals.
- Demand: Weak buying interest persists both domestically and internationally.
- Festival season outlook: Market expects a possible uptick in demand as festival season approaches, but concrete support yet to emerge.
- Export demand: Stable for organic powder from India and fresh from Egypt as per latest FOB prices, but overall export sentiment remains cautious.
📊 Fundamentals
- Inventories: Ample carry-over stocks from previous harvest.
- Speculative Positioning: No significant speculative activity as market remains range-bound.
- USDA & Crop Reports: No recent bullish fundamental shocks; area under cultivation and overall yield remain consistent with previous years.
- Comparison to Previous Report: Market situation remains largely unchanged; persistent weak demand continues as the dominant driver.
☁️ Weather Outlook
- India: Ongoing monsoon in key production areas (Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat) sees average precipitation, harboring no immediate risks for current crops. Supply-side disruptions are minimal.
- China: Stable growing conditions after major harvest, exportable stocks remain strong with no reports of significant weather-induced losses.
- Egypt: Dry and favorable weather, supporting continued regular shipments and quality for exports to Europe and Middle East.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (est., tonnes) | Stocks (est., tonnes) | Key Export Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 20,500,000 | Strong | Global |
| India | 3,000,000 | Adequate | Asia, Middle East |
| Egypt | 300,000 | Stable | EU, Middle East, Africa |
| Spain | 250,000 | Moderate | EU |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Market participants should:
- Monitor demand signals as the festival season progresses; any uptick could quickly narrow available stocks and drive prices up.
- Hold off large purchases until clear signs of demand revival emerge; spot buying recommended for immediate needs only.
- Track weather in Indian and Chinese production belts for any late-season disruptions, although current risk is low.
- Exporters: Maintain flexibility in FOB offers, especially for premium and organic grades to capture potential holiday buying.
- Importers: Take advantage of low prices but keep inventories dynamic to capture any sudden price rebounds.
- Short-term sentiment remains “Bearish,” with a potential shift to “Neutral” if festival-driven buying materializes.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Current Price | Forecast Range Next 3 Days | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gondal (IN) | Premium: USD 44.90–48.10/qtl | USD 44.80–48.20/qtl | Sideways/Weak |
| Rajkot (IN) | USD 26.90–32.20/qtl | USD 26.90–32.50/qtl | Sideways |
| New Delhi (IN, FOB, organic powder) | 6.63 €/kg | 6.63 €/kg | Stable |
| Kairo (EG, FOB, fresh) | 1.00 €/kg | 1.00 €/kg | Stable |
