Indian Peanut Market Faces Export Turmoil Amid Indonesia Ban and Oversupply Fears

The global peanut market is at a critical juncture, particularly for Indian groundnut exporters who now face a daunting export disruption. Indonesia, India’s single largest groundnut importer, has enforced a suspension of imports due to alleged aflatoxin contamination—an action that stranded shipments at Jakarta’s ports for the third straight week. This standoff couldn’t come at a worse time: India’s new groundnut crop, sown over a larger area than last year, is due for harvest imminently, promising record production, especially from Gujarat. The export halt risks a cascading impact on domestic markets: prices are already depressed below the government’s Minimum Support Price (MSP) as India brims with supply.

Exporters, contesting the validity and delay of the Indonesian tests, highlight the lack of clarity and inconsistencies in sampling compared to Indian standards. Unless regulatory and diplomatic bridges are rapidly built, India’s peanut sector could face severe marketing challenges, logistical bottlenecks, and financial stress for farmers and processors alike. With past suspensions and regulatory interventions still fresh in memory, the current events reveal deeper vulnerabilities in the international trade of food commodities, where scientific, procedural, and political fault-lines increasingly determine market fates.

📈 Prices: Latest Peanut Market Snapshot

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Roasted split 60/70/80	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.11	0.00	⚠️ Bearish (Export halt, rising supply)
Birdfeed	IN	New Delhi	CFR	1.01	0.00	Bearish
Raw	BR	Brasília	FOB	1.26	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Export Disruption: Indonesia (33% of India’s peanut exports) has suspended imports since September 3, stemming from delayed aflatoxin notifications. 277,000 tones valued at USD 280 million are directly affected.
• New Indian Crop: This season, groundnuts occupy 4.8 million ha (up from 4.765m ha). Gujarat anticipates a record 6.6 million tones. The bumper harvest will exacerbate downward price pressure if exports remain blocked.
• Domestic Price Depression: Indian farmgate prices at EUR 68.18/100kg (USD 68.18/quintal) are well below MSP of EUR 87.16/100kg—a sign of oversupply and market nervousness.
• Aflatoxin Controversy: Dispute over testing methods and the significant delay between shipment arrival and aflatoxin reporting. APEDA samples 20 kg; IQA (Indonesia) samples 1 kg, inviting criticism over protocol and WTO compliance.
• Regulatory History: Similar aflatoxin-related bans occurred in 2022; exporters demand harmonization of testing standards.
• Stock Build-up Risk: With ports blocked, storage and quality control costs mount in India, further squeezing margins.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks, and Global Trade

Country	Production (2024/25, mt)	Stocks (2023/24, mt)	Major Export Destinations
India	≈ 7.5 million	High (pre-harvest, +cargo backlog)	Indonesia, Vietnam, EU
China	17 million	Very High	Regional Asia, Europe
Brazil	≈ 0.7 million	Moderate	Europe, Asia

• Indian Exports FY 2023/24: 746,000 tones (of which 277,000 to Indonesia).
• Indonesia’s share: Nearly 1/3 of India’s peanut exports by volume.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Monsoon in Gujarat & Rajasthan: Rainfall has been adequate. Most crops are in pod-filling stages with favorable moisture—likely supporting above-average yields.
• Weather Risks: Forecasts for mostly dry, warm conditions in the next week minimize immediate harvest disruption, but elevate aflatoxin risk if post-harvest drying is not effective.
• Harvest Timeline: Main harvest begins in October; early arrivals expected by late September.

📌 Market Drivers & Speculative Positioning

• Regulatory action: Further delays or escalation in the Indo-Indonesia dispute could depress prices further and flood the domestic market.
• Harvest pressure: Record output, unless absorbed by international markets, will result in price pressure and possible intervention purchases by the Indian government.
• Speculative flows: Uncertainty is keeping speculative interest muted, with buyers on the sidelines awaiting clarity on export protocols.
• Seasonal demand (festivals, birdfeed): Could provide minor domestic price support, but unlikely to offset export loss volume.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔔 Exporters: Seek alternative markets (Vietnam, Middle East, EU) proactively; stay updated with APEDA advisories on Indonesia.
• 🔔 Traders: Exercise caution in fresh purchases until regulatory clarity returns and export channels normalize.
• 🔔 Processors: Consider tie-ups for domestic sales in value-added segments (snacks, peanut butter) as bulk export opportunities are curtailed.
• 🔔 Farmers: Engage with local procurement agencies for MSP sales if international avenues remain blocked.
• 🔔 All participants: Monitor crop reports and port updates closely; volatility is likely in the next month.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Indian Ports & Exchanges)

Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Direction	3-Day Outlook
New Delhi (FOB, roasted splits)	1.11	⬇️ Softening	Likely to drift lower on weak export sentiment, –1–2%
Gujarat (FOB, bold 40–50)	1.02	⬇️ Softening	Under MSP; risk of further decline as harvest accelerates
Brasília (FOB, raw)	1.26	➡️ Stable	Little movement; Brazil market steady amid Indian turmoil