Hazelnut Market Turmoil: Record Prices, Dwindling Supply, and Cautious Trading Shape Global Nuts Sector

The global nuts market, and particularly hazelnuts, has entered a period of exceptional volatility and uncertainty. In 2024, Turkey—the world’s leading hazelnut producer—faces severe supply shortages due to a combination of devastating frost and persistent drought. This dual threat has dramatically curtailed hazelnut output, with various estimates suggesting production could fall as low as 400,000 metric tons—nearly half the size of a typical crop. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) responded by setting procurement prices at unprecedented levels, but local and export market prices have surged far beyond official benchmarks, fueled by acute material shortages and widespread stock withholding by producers and traders.

Turkish hazelnut prices have doubled in a year, triggering cost increases, market hesitancy, and disruption of both domestic and international contracts. With both buyers and exporters reluctant to transact at these high price levels, the global market is entering a wait-and-see period as trade flows dwindle and participants assess the possibility of further shocks or relief ahead.

📈 Prices: Surging Hazelnut and Nuts Benchmark Data

Product	Exchange/Origin	Latest Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Hazelnut (Giresun)	Turkey	US$4.83/kg	+51% y/y	Extremely Bullish
Hazelnut (Levant)	Turkey	US$4.71/kg	+56% y/y	Extremely Bullish
Hazelnut (local)	Turkey, mid-Sept	US$7.73–8.46/kg	+121% y/y	Extremely Bullish
Hazelnut Kernel 11/13 Levant (Expana Benchmark)	Turkey (export)	US$1,700/100kg	+41% in 4 weeks	Extremely Bullish
Brazil nuts (medium, NL)	Dordrecht (NL)	€6.58/kg	0% (Stable)	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand: Weather Cuts, Export Caution

• Turkey’s Hazelnut Production: Estimated 609,000 mt (–22% y/y, INC), official Turkish estimate 520,000 mt, with trade estimates as low as 400,000 mt—potentially the smallest crop in over a decade.
• Exporters Facing Shortfalls: Ongoing contract fulfillment struggles; potential for defaults on earlier, lower-priced deals due to lack of physical supply.
• Buyer Hesitancy: High and rising prices curtail both international and domestic demand; little new business completed as buyers and sellers hold back awaiting stabilization.
• Global Ripples: High Turkish prices exert upward pressure elsewhere, but supply tightness is most acute in the Mediterranean and Europe.

📊 Fundamentals: Market Drivers and Stock Comparison

• Weather Impact: Severe frost in spring and drought through summer.
• TMO Policy: Steep procurement price hikes in August, raising floor prices but failing to stem rises in open market/export prices.
• Speculative Positioning: Elevated volatility as traders hoard supplies; minimal forward contracts being offered.
• Inventories: Global stocks remain below average; EU and US buyers are closely monitoring origin prices and supply chain viability.

Country	2024/25 Est. Production (mt)	Stock Change
Turkey	400,000–609,000	–20% to –40% y/y
Italy	120,000	+3% y/y
Azerbaijan	54,000	Stable
USA	58,000	+2% y/y

🌦️ Weather Outlook: Impact on Key Origins

• Turkey (Black Sea): After a hot, dry summer and localized spring frosts, the September outlook is milder but soil moisture deficits remain pronounced. No substantial rainfall is forecast—drought stress may linger.
• Italy (Piedmont): Stable, with moderate temperatures and satisfactory rain through September. No immediate yield threat.
• USA (Oregon): Late-summer conditions are dry to average; minimal risk projected for upcoming harvest.

🔍 Trading & Price Outlook: Recommendations

• For Producers: Consider selling small parcels at current high prices, but remain cautious as further increases are possible if no relief in supplies emerges.
• For Exporters: Prioritize fulfillment of outstanding contracts; avoid new forwards unless origin supply is secured.
• For Industrial users: Delay purchases where possible or seek alternatives; expect further volatility in Q4.
• For Speculators: Extreme risk; avoid leveraged bets unless risk hedged by physical supply.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Product	Exchange/Location	Current Price	3-Day Forecast
Hazelnut (Giresun)	Turkey	US$4.83/kg	→ US$5.00–5.20/kg (further firming expected)
Hazelnut Kernel 11/13	Export, Turkey	US$1,700/100kg	→ US$1,740–1,800/100kg
Brazil nuts (medium, NL)	Dordrecht (NL)	€6.58/kg	Stable

The market faces its most severe test in a decade, with buyers, sellers, and processors navigating extreme price volatility and historic supply tightness. Monitor Turkish weather and TMO policies for cues on future direction.