Wheat Market Weekly Review: Stability Amid Global Volatility

The wheat market entered a period of remarkable price stability this week, shaped by moderate arrivals, balanced demand, and a lack of significant government procurement activity. While minor price swings were observed in the past month, a sense of equilibrium now dominates both local and international trade. Market sentiment suggests that the recent steadiness is partly the result of slow procurement and restrained government intervention, with traders waiting for the next major trigger—be it from policy, weather, or shifting export demand.

Globally, wheat prices reflected modest volatility as the benchmark Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures declined by 1.78% over the week. Harvest progress in major regions and realignment of global supply chains are key themes, with traders monitoring international developments closely for disruptions or rallies. On the domestic front, cities like Ahmedabad, Indore, and Delhi have reported stable price ranges, emphasizing the script of stability, but also hinting at a market poised for quick reaction should conditions change.

The weather outlook, ongoing global harvests, and any signals from government procurement policy will be decisive in shaping near-term price trajectories. While stability prevails, market players are vigilant, recognizing the potential for any new development to tip the scales.

📈 Latest Wheat Prices at Key Exchanges

Exchange/Location	Grade	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT (Chicago)	Protein min. 11.50%	€0.23/kg	-1.78%	Bearish
Euronext (Paris)	Protein min. 11.00%	€0.29/kg	No change	Stable
Kyiv (UA, FCA)	Protein min. 11.50%	€0.24/kg	No change	Stable
Odesa (UA, FCA)	Protein min. 11.50%	€0.25/kg	No change	Stable
Delhi (IN, spot)	Spot	$39.76–$41.56/quintal	N/A	Steady
Ahmedabad (IN, spot)	Spot	$39.76–$40.36/quintal	N/A	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Harvest Progress: Ongoing harvests in the Northern Hemisphere are contributing to subdued international price movements.
• Indian Arrivals: In Indore, arrivals stood at nearly 1,300 quintals with strong quality differentiation seen in pricing.
• Limited Procurement: Domestic procurement activity remains low; minimal government intervention in most major regions.
• Speculative Positioning: CBOT wheat future contracts saw modest liquidation, pressuring prices.
• USDA Report Influence: Anticipation of the next WASDE report is high as global inventory and export projections will influence forward prices.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

• India: Wheat trading in a steady range ($39.76–$43.37/quintal spot) marks a contrast to seasonal fluctuations seen last quarter.
• Ukraine: Export offers from Kyiv and Odesa remain unchanged (€0.24/kg, €0.25/kg FCA), indicating balanced supply pipelines.
• France: Euronext wheat closed at €0.29/kg (FOB Paris), reflecting a recent holding pattern in Western Europe.
• USA: CBOT futures posted a 1.78% weekly drop, highlighting concerns about global inventory build-up and harvest pace.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Impact Analysis

• Black Sea Region: Mixed rainfall in southern Ukraine and Russia; moderate temperatures supporting harvest completion. No widespread weather threats reported.
• India: Monsoon activity remains largely normal with isolated surplus rainfall; positive for late-maturing crops but could delay market arrivals slightly in some pockets.
• EU: France and Germany reported near-average rainfall; overall conditions support output forecasts though minor heat stress observed in southwest France.

Weather remains broadly supportive, with limited threats to global production in the immediate term.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024 Output (est.)	Ending Stocks	YoY Change
India	112 Mt	13.5 Mt	+2.5%
Russia	85 Mt	15.8 Mt	+1.0%
Ukraine	22 Mt	4.0 Mt	-8.5%
USA	50 Mt	16.6 Mt	Stable
EU	135 Mt	15.2 Mt	-0.5%
China	137 Mt	136.6 Mt	+0.9%

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Market to remain range-bound in the short term amid robust arrivals and adequate stocks.
• Monitor government procurement—any increase in tenders or price supports could shift sentiments quickly.
• Harvest progress and real-time USDA/WASDE updates to be key triggers for international pricing.
• Exporters in the Black Sea region advised to keep offers competitive as global buyers remain price-sensitive.
• Buyers can consider gradual accumulation as current prices are at seasonal lows with muted upside risk near term.

🔮 3-Day Price & Sentiment Forecast

Exchange/Region	Current Price	Forecast Price	Sentiment
CBOT	€0.23/kg	€0.23–€0.24/kg	Neutral to slightly bearish
Euronext (Paris)	€0.29/kg	€0.29/kg	Stable
Kyiv (UA, FCA)	€0.24/kg	€0.24/kg	Stable
Odesa (UA, FCA)	€0.25/kg	€0.25/kg	Stable
Delhi (IN, spot)	$39.76–$41.56/quintal	$39.76–$41.56/quintal	Stable