The Indian peanut market is experiencing a period of heightened activity and optimism following the Gujarat state government’s announcement to procure a record 1.2 million tons of groundnuts during the 2025–26 kharif season. This robust procurement plan, backed by a Minimum Support Price (MSP) of $730 per ton, aims to safeguard farmers from market volatility and ensure stable incomes. The move follows last year’s successful procurement of nearly 1 million tons and responds to expectations of a bumper harvest, supported by positive weather and increased sown area.
By leveraging digital payment systems and centralized monitoring, the government is actively prioritizing farmer interests while also hoping to absorb excess supply that would otherwise depress local prices. In global context, India’s proactive stance is expected to affect both domestic and export market dynamics, potentially influencing peanut trade flows from other major producers and exporters like Brazil and the U.S. For market participants, the synergy of strong fundamentals, proactive price support, and favorable weather sets the stage for a season of price stability and bullish sentiment—at least in the near term. Traders and processors should prepare for steady procurement-driven demand, even as international buyers monitor India’s record crop and its implications for exportable surplus.
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Peanuts
roasted split, 60/70/80
FOB 1.09 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
birdfeed
CFR 0.99 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
raw
FOB 1.24 €/kg
(from BR)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous | Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasted split, 60/70/80 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.11 | 1.11 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Birdfeed | IN | New Delhi | CFR | 1.01 | 1.01 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Raw | BR | Brasília | FOB | 1.26 | 1.26 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Java 70-80 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Java 60-70 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.98 | 0.98 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Java 50-60 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.06 | 1.06 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Bold 60-70 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.98 | 0.98 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Bold 50-60 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Bold 40-50 | IN | Gujarat – Gondal | FOB | 1.02 | 1.02 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Production: India expects a bumper crop for 2025–26, especially in Gujarat, with output projected above last year’s record of 1 million tons procured.
- Procurement: The state government will procure 1.2 million tons at MSP ($730/t) to stabilize the market and protect farmers.
- Demand: Domestic demand remains robust from the edible oil and snack industry; export demand is stable but will be sensitive to policy and procurement updates.
- Inventories: Government absorption of surplus stocks should minimize risk of price crashes during peak arrivals.
📊 Fundamentals
- MSP Impact: Guaranteed price support at $730/ton helps stabilize growers’ incomes and reduces distress selling.
- Digital Payments: Quick, transparent payments via digital platforms build farmer confidence and facilitate active market participation.
- Global Context: India’s larger crop may put mild pressure on global prices, especially if surplus leads to increased exports, challenging Brazil and U.S. exporters.
- Speculative Positioning: Increased government presence supports a bullish market sentiment, with limited downside for now.
🌡️ Weather Outlook
- Gujarat/Western India: Continued favorable moisture conditions and near-average monsoon rainfall have driven expectations for above-normal yields.
- Watch: No current threats from drought or pest infestation are reported; near-term harvest weather is positive.
- Brazil: Remains stable, with regular dry-to-wet spells but no major risk to yields.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Production (Mt) | Stocks (Mt) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 8.7 | 1.2 | ↑ |
| China | 17.0 | 4.6 | ↔ |
| USA | 2.8 | 0.5 | ↔ |
| Brazil | 0.6 | 0.09 | ↔ |
💡 Trading Outlook & Key Takeaways
- Expect stable and mildly bullish prices, with limited downside risk due to ongoing large-scale procurement.
- Price increases likely capped by bumper crop and government inventory-building.
- International buyers should watch for a potential rise in Indian peanut exports if government stockpiles exceed domestic demand needs.
- Traders can consider accumulating supplies at MSP levels; downside is protected by procurement but upside capped by expectations of excess supply.
- Monitor government purchase pace and any changes to international trade policy for directional cues.
📆 3-Day Price Forecast (EUR/kg)
| Type | Current | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasted split, 60/70/80 (IN) | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.12 |
| Birdfeed (IN) | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Raw (BR) | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 |