Mustard Seeds Market: Price Pressure Persists Amid Weak Demand and International Headwinds

The mustard seed market is currently experiencing a notable downturn, as a combination of weak oil mill demand, lackluster export orders, and subdued international edible oil prices sharply weigh on sentiment. This week, mustard seed prices in Indian mandis such as Jaipur registered steep declines—dropping by $25–$50 per quintal to settle at $87.00 per quintal. Corresponding declines in mustard oil and mustard meal underline the breadth of the weakness: mustard oil fell by $0.5/kg and meal prices continued to hover near multi-month lows.

Daily arrivals at major markets are notably below seasonal norms, with only 1.85 lakh bags reported, indicating a hesitant pace from both farmers and buyers. Limp demand from domestic processors, high carryover stocks, and the absence of major export deals are stifling any bullish momentum. Externally, weakness in competing oils—palm and soybean—has amplified the bearish tone, keeping Indian mustard seed prices under persistent pressure. Looking ahead, traders expect a range-bound market unless new export inquiries emerge or millers return in force.

📈 Prices and Exchange Overview

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Update Date
Mustard Seeds	Yellow, micro, sortex	IN	New Delhi	FOB	0.85	0.85	0	2025-09-19
Mustard Seeds	Yellow, bold, sortex	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.01	1.01	0	2025-09-19
Mustard Seeds	Brown, micro, sortex	IN	New Delhi	FOB	0.85	0.85	0	2025-09-19
Mustard Seeds	Brown, bold, sortex	IN	New Delhi	FOB	0.78	0.78	0	2025-09-19
Mustard Seeds	Sinapis alba	KZ	Kiełczygłow, PL	FCA	0.73	0.75	-0.02	2025-09-01

• Mandis (Jaipur): $87.00 per quintal for mustard seeds (down $25–$50 per quintal week-on-week).
• Mustard Oil Cake: $24.00 per quintal
• Mustard Oil (Expeller): $151.00 per 10 kg
• Mustard Oil (Kachchi Ghani): $153.00 per 10 kg

🌍 Supply & Demand Structure

• Arrivals this week: 1.85 lakh bags, well below seasonal averages.
• Processor activity remains muted as high oilseed stocks and limited export interest deter fresh purchases.
• International edible oil corrections (soybean, palm) reinforce bearish sentiment for mustard complex in India.
• Both domestic and international demand remain subdued, with no major export orders reported.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Drivers

• USDA and local crop surveys suggest above-average carryover supplies for Indian mustard, limiting bullish price moves.
• High global stocks of edible oils keep prices capped despite occasional weather-related scares in Canada (canola) and Black Sea regions.
• Speculative participation is limited; buying by oil mills and traders remains conservative.
• Recent government procurement programs failing to move the needle on market sentiment.

☁️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Northern India: Monsoon rains in Rajasthan and Haryana have been timely, aiding late-season moisture. No adverse weather shocks currently anticipated.
• Europe: Minor heat spells reported in Poland (Sinapis alba) but not impacting supply outlook materially.
• Canada/Black Sea: Favorable fall weather supports canola/mustard planting and early crop establishment.
• Weather-neutral-to-supportive for next 2 weeks; downside weather risk limited.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	2024/25 Prod. Est. (MT)	Stocks (MT)	Market Share
India	~11.5M	High	Largest producer; significant global exporter
Canada	0.7M	Stable	Key canola/mustard exporter to EU/Asia
EU (France, Poland)	0.3M	Adequate	Mostly for internal use, spot exports
Kazakhstan	0.22M	Moderate	Emerging exporter, especially to Europe

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Range-bound prices ($86–$90/quintal) expected in near term unless export demand/emerging weather issues surface.
• Buyers: Consider slow hand-to-mouth procurement; larger purchases only on clear export/processor signals.
• Sellers/Farmers: Hold minimal stocks, watch for short-covering rallies driven by oil mill upticks or government interventions.
• Exporters: Track oilseed market cues globally (especially soybean/palm) for any arbitrage/export window.
• Traders: Stay cautious, look for technical supports near recent lows; avoid aggressive long positions.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Price Outlook (EUR/kg)	Direction	Remark
New Delhi (FOB)	0.84–0.86	Sideways/Weak	Stable with mild downside risk
Kiełczygłow, PL (FCA)	0.72–0.74	Flat	Prices may stabilize after recent decline
Jaipur (Spot)	$86–$88/quintal	Sideways	Muted trade, no major support seen