Poppy Seed Market: Weather Pressures and Weak Sentiment Keep Prices Range-Bound

The global poppy seed market is navigating a period of subdued activity, as sluggish demand and rising arrivals intersect with unfavorable weather dynamics. Despite an apparent stabilization in wholesale prices, sentiment among traders and processors remains weak. As of now, poppy seed prices are trading at approximately USD 16.80 per quintal, marking no significant change from previous levels, though a minor dip of USD 0.60 per quintal earlier this week underscores the sensitivity of the market to demand-side shifts.

Warmer-than-usual temperatures in key producing regions have adversely affected the supply quality, putting further downward pressure on prices. Many market participants predict a continuation of these range-bound movements unless there is a sudden surge in demand, notably from large processors or exporters. With the outlook for poppy seeds hinging on weather and export trends, buyers and sellers alike are advised to stay nimble.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Product	Origin	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment	Last Update
White Poppyseeds (99.9% purity, morphin < 20 ppm)	CZ (Chropyne)	2.90	2.90	0.00	Bearish/Sluggish	2025-09-22
Blue Poppyseeds (99.9% purity, morphin < 20 ppm)	CZ (Chropyne)	2.02	2.02	0.00	Bearish/Sluggish	2025-09-22
Blue Poppyseeds (99.9% purity, morphin < 20 ppm)	CZ (Vysoke Myto)	2.02	2.02	0.00	Bearish/Sluggish	2025-09-22

• Spot USD price: ~16.80/quintal; flat weekly, slight dip earlier on low demand.
• European offerings stable, no recent upward movement; market still weighs slow demand.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Market arrivals are increasing, further weighing on prices.
• Underlying demand from processors and exporters remains soft, with no large tenders reported.
• Stable wholesale prices are masking weaker underlying spot sentiment.

📊 Fundamentals & Comparative Overview

• Weather impact: Warmer-than-normal weather in Central Europe and Asia has affected seed quality and yield consistency.
• Supply: No critical shortages reported globally, though variable quality is a concern for high-spec buyers.
• Speculative positioning: No significant fund or speculative interest; trade is mainly driven by processors’ and exporters’ inventory positions.
• Comparison to last report: Prices remain flat; fundamental weakness persists though no large declines yet realized.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Central Europe (CZ, SK, Hungary): Persistent unseasonal warmth, risk of lower oil content and seed quality in new arrivals.
• Turkey & India: Mostly normal, some localised dryness; not currently impacting exportable stocks, but may affect next sowing window.
• Impact: Recent harvest arrivals show more variability in kernel size and colour, keeping quality premiums narrow.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2023/24 Production (est.)	2022/23 Stocks	2023/24 Export Share
Czech Republic	~28,000 t	6,500 t	42%
Turkey	~16,500 t	3,250 t	21%
Hungary, Spain, India (combined)	~12,500 t	~2,800 t	20%

• EU and Turkey remain key exporters; India is an important regional processor, less of an export force.
• Exportable stocks sufficient for near-term demand; quality differentiation more prominent than in past years.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3-Day Forecast

• Prices likely to remain range-bound, with little upward momentum forecast for the next week.
• Monitor weather updates; further deviations may tighten high-quality seed supply and marginally lift premiums.
• Export buyers: No urgency to cover forward, but quality-driven purchases possible on dips.
• Processors: Carefully manage inventory, as replacement quality may be inconsistent through autumn arrivals.
• Short-term speculative buying not recommended under current weak sentiment.

Product	Exchange	Today (EUR/kg)	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days	Sentiment
White Poppyseeds	Physical/EU	2.90	2.90	2.89	2.89	Neutral/Weak
Blue Poppyseeds	Physical/EU	2.02	2.02	2.01	2.01	Neutral/Weak