Cashew prices struggled to gain traction this week, reflecting a generally quiet global nuts market. Although there were temporary price gains of USD 0.24–0.30 per quintal earlier in the week, ongoing weak demand quickly capped any upside, and prices for key grades such as 320 No. stabilized at around USD 10.92 per quintal. The market has failed to sustain positive momentum as buyers held back, awaiting clearer export signals and better visibility on global demand. With subdued trading interest reported across major origins—most notably Vietnam and India, which dictate global supply—the price environment is likely to remain under pressure until fresh export demand, possibly from Europe or the Middle East, re-emerges. Market sentiment remains muted, and stakeholders should closely monitor both regional weather patterns and export tender announcements as these could provide much-needed direction.
In the absence of significant new orders or a supply-side shock, analysts anticipate a largely range-bound trade in the days ahead, challenging both exporters and importers to fine-tune their procurement strategies. The coming period will be crucial in determining whether today’s subdued trends will break, especially as importers watch inventory levels and buyers in developed markets remain cautious about restocking at current price levels.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Cashew kernels
WW240
FOB 7.70 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
WS
FOB 5.70 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
SP
FOB 4.25 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Prices: Current Cashew Market Snapshot
| Type | Origin (City) | Organic | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Change (EUR) | Latest Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WW240 | Hanoi (VN) | No | FOB | 7.70 | 7.75 | -0.05 | 2025-09-19 |
| WS | Hanoi (VN) | No | FOB | 5.70 | 5.75 | -0.05 | 2025-09-19 |
| SP | Hanoi (VN) | No | FOB | 4.25 | 4.30 | -0.05 | 2025-09-19 |
| WW320 | Hanoi (VN) | No | FOB | 6.80 | 6.85 | -0.05 | 2025-09-19 |
| W320 | New Delhi (IN) | No | FOB | 6.84 | 6.84 | 0.00 | 2025-09-19 |
| W320 | New Delhi (IN) | Yes | FOB | 8.55 | 8.55 | 0.00 | 2025-09-19 |
| LWP | Hanoi (VN) | No | FOB | 5.20 | 5.25 | -0.05 | 2025-09-19 |
Market sentiment: Weak, range-bound with low buying interest.
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Supply: Key exporters Vietnam and India report stable to slightly lower kernel prices, reflecting ample stocks and lackluster short-term demand.
- Demand: Buyers, especially in Europe and North America, remain cautious, with subdued interest in forward contracts and spot deals.
- Trade Flows: Export volumes from Vietnam have slowed seasonally; demand from the Middle East has not accelerated post-summer.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Inventories: Stockpiles in key exporting countries are stable; no notable drawdowns, maintaining pressure on prices.
- Speculative Positioning: Market observers note limited speculative interest as cashew prices remain unexciting compared to other tree nuts.
- External Reports: No significant supply disruptions reported; recent USDA and major analyst outlooks project steady output for 2025 harvests in Vietnam and India.
⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Vietnam: Current weather in key growing regions is normal with scattered showers, providing good soil moisture levels. No immediate threats from typhoons or droughts noted in the latest forecasts.
- India: Monsoon conditions remain within seasonal expectations, with sufficient rainfall for crop maintenance. Pest/disease reports remain negligible for now.
- Forecast: Weather is not expected to impact yields in the short run; continued favorable outlook could pressure prices further if demand remains weak.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (est. kt) | Stock Level (kt) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 412 | 150 | Stable |
| India | 310 | 120 | Stable |
| Africa (aggregate) | 540 | Unknown | Unclear |
| Brazil | 40 | 20 | Stable |
| EU (importer) | 0 | 65 | Drawing down |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect prices to remain range-bound in coming days barring new export demand from EU or Middle East.
- Procurement teams advised to buy hand-to-mouth; limited upside risk in immediate future.
- Sellers should manage stocks carefully and seek alternative buyers where possible.
- Monitor weather updates and upcoming export tenders, which could briefly move the market.
- No strong signals for speculative positions at this time.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Grade | Currency | Current Price | Forecast Range (Next 3 Days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (VN) | WW240 | EUR/kg | 7.70 | 7.65–7.75 |
| Hanoi (VN) | WW320 | EUR/kg | 6.80 | 6.75–6.85 |
| New Delhi (IN) | W320 | EUR/kg | 6.84 | 6.80–6.90 |
