The global lentil market finds itself at a critical juncture: record-breaking harvests in Canada and Australia, coupled with aggressive export competition from Russia and Africa, have sent prices tumbling to multi-year lows. Over the last month, lentil and other pulse prices dropped between 5% and 20% on most major markets. This price correction is primarily driven by robust production in key growers, especially Canada, which has just delivered its largest lentil crop in 12 years at 2.75 million tones, and Australia, whose lentil output has surged 34% year-on-year. The price war is intensified by expanded offerings from the US, Russia, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Myanmar, and Brazil.
Meanwhile, India—the world’s single largest pulse consumer—faces a complicated scenario: recent floods have hampered domestic yields, yet duty-free imports continue to flow in, threatening to depress local prices even further and squeeze farmer incomes. Traders caution that unless policy adjustments or procurement interventions are enacted, Indian growers might face considerable financial distress this season. Global supply surpluses, competitive export pricing, and the risk of weak domestic demand together forecast a challenging landscape for both traders and producers in the months ahead.
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Lentils dried
Red football
FOB 2.50 €/kg
(from CA)
📈 Prices & Recent Performance
| Pulse Variety | Country/Origin | FOB Price (USD/tonne) | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masur (Red Lentils) | Canada | 540 | 2.50* | -16% | Bearish |
| Masur (Red Lentils) | Australia | 530 | n/a | -18% | Bearish |
| Laird (Green Lentils) | Canada | n/a | 1.68 | +1.2% | Stable/Weak |
| Eston Green Lentils | Canada | n/a | 1.55 | +1.3% | Stable/Weak |
| Small Green Lentils (org.) | China | n/a | 1.30 | -1.5% | Bearish |
| Small Green Lentils | China | n/a | 1.22 | -0.8% | Bearish |
| Moth (Green Lentils) | Canada | 640 | n/a | -18% | Bearish |
| Moth (Green Lentils) | Russia | 645 | n/a | -17% | Bearish |
*CA Red Football type as per latest CMB offer; exchange rates as of 25 September 2025.
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Canada: Lentil production estimated at 2.75M tonnes, 12-year high; yellow pea output up 9%, exports at 2M+ tonnes.
- Australia: Lentil output surges 34% to 1.7M tonnes, far above historical averages despite a 7% drop in chickpea production.
- Other Exporters: Russia, US, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Myanmar, Brazil all increasing supply and competing on price.
- India: Domestic crop losses from monsoon floods, yet imports of major lentils (tur, urad, yellow peas) remain duty-free until March 2026; masur and chana face a 10% tariff.
- Demand: Weakened by high inventories and cheap imports; only urad beans show relative firmness due to limited availability from Myanmar and concerns over Indian output.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Global Overhang: Exceptional harvests in Canada and Australia create a surplus situation as major consuming markets struggle to absorb the volumes.
- Pricing Pressure: Export prices for lentils slide 16–20% y-o-y, with Canadian and Australian quotes for Masur at $530–540/tonne.
- Indian Policy: Ongoing duty-free import window could suppress local prices further unless curtailed or offset by government procurement.
- Speculative Positioning: Traders reduce long positions, bracing for continued weakness absent aggressive government buying or adverse weather in India.
- Comparative Table: Global Lentil Output (‘000 tonnes)
| Country | 2024 Output | Prev. Year |
|---|---|---|
| Canada | 2,750 | 2,050 |
| Australia | 1,700 | 1,270 |
| Russia | — | — |
| India (est.) | 1,200 | 1,350 |
☀️ Weather Outlook & Yield Risks
- India: Key lentil belts (MP, UP, Maharashtra) experienced damaging floods in August and September, sharply reducing short-term yield potential and quality.
- Australia: Reports of timely rainfall and mild temperatures supporting a strong finish to the season; yield estimates stable to slightly higher.
- Canada: Recent weather largely benign; harvest mostly complete, excellent quality reported though some localized dryness noted in Saskatchewan late in season.
- Short-term Forecast: No major adverse events expected in the next 10 days across the principal growing areas.
⚖️ Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Remain cautious on long positions—price momentum and supply fundamentals point to further downside risks near term.
- Low-cost importers (Africa, S. Asia) may secure coverage in Q4 while prices remain at historical lows.
- Indian policy shifts (import duties or procurement) could trigger short-term rebounds, but fundamentals remain bearish absent weather shocks.
- Monitor inventory levels and Indian government response—aggressive procurement or a halt to duty-free imports could offer support.
- Watch Indian rupee fluctuations, which could impact netback prices in Asian markets.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Pulse Type | Price Today | Forecast (Day 3) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT (Futures/Indicative) | Red Lentils | USD 540/t | USD 535–540/t | Steady/Bearish |
| Beijing FOB Offer | Small Green Lentils Org. | EUR 1.30/kg | EUR 1.28–1.30/kg | Weak |
| Ottawa FOB Offer | Laird Green Lentils | EUR 1.68/kg | EUR 1.65–1.68/kg | Soft |
Sentiment: Persistent downward pressure with modest recovery possible only if Indian imports slow or weather disrupts Southern Hemisphere planting.
