Pearl Millet Market Watch: Harvest Surge Calms Rallies—What’s Next?

The pearl millet (bajra) market is entering a pivotal phase as the 2025 harvest begins flowing into key north Indian markets, most notably in Rajasthan—India’s largest millet-producing state. A favorable monsoon has not only enhanced yield prospects but has also shifted market sentiment from bullish anticipation to cautious optimism. Early arrivals suggest a swift ramp-up in supply, with reported volumes across Rajasthan’s mandis ranging from 3,300 to 3,600 quintals and market prices stabilizing despite the influx. Quality differentials remain pronounced: medium-quality lots change hands at $39–$42 per quintal, while top-tier produce commands $44–$46. Localized trading activity paints a similar picture: Chimanpara averaged $41, and Rajkot saw highs near $44 per quintal—underscoring buyers’ premium on grain quality.

Industry signals point to price steadiness in the near term, tempered by expectations of further softening as arrivals peak in coming weeks. Internationally, recent pricing from Ukrainian, Chinese, and Polish exporters shows mild upward pressure, particularly on organic and high-purity grades. This mix of fundamental and regional data suggests a nuanced, two-speed market where timing and quality will shape opportunities for both producers and buyers.

📈 Prices

Location	Product Type	Grade	Price (USD/quintal)	Latest Price (EUR/mt)	Prev. Price	Sentiment
Rajasthan Mandis	Pearl Millet (bajra)	Medium	39–42	–	–	Neutral
Chimanpara	Pearl Millet	Average	41	–	–	Neutral
Rajkot	Pearl Millet	High	42–44	–	–	Neutral/Firm
Odesa, UA	Millet seeds (inshell, red)	98%	–	0.30	0.27	Firming
Odesa, UA	Millet seeds (inshell, yellow)	98%	–	0.28	0.27	Stable
Odesa, UA	Millet kernels (hulled, yellow)	98%	–	0.40	0.40	Stable
Odesa, UA	Millet kernels (hulled, yellow, organic)	99%	–	1.20	1.20	Static
Beijing, CN	Millet kernels (hulled, yellow)	99.90%, organic	–	0.81	0.80	Slightly Firmer
Beijing, CN	Millet kernels (hulled, yellow)	99.95%	–	0.74	0.73	Slightly Firmer
Kiełczygłow, PL	Millet seeds (hulled, yellow)	99.95%	–	0.45	0.44	Firming

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: New arrivals picking up fast; market expects up to 3,600 quintals/day in key Rajasthan markets as harvest accelerates.
• International: Ukraine, China, and Poland remain key exporters; Ukrainian prices firming slightly post-harvest, suggesting tightening stocks or export demand.
• Demand: Domestic traders reported steady buying for feed and food use, especially for high-quality lots. No bandwidth constraints expected in logistics/delivery.
• Inventories: No major stockpiles reported—a quick distribution into the value chain is likely, supporting price stability in the near term.

📊 Fundamentals

• Harvest Progress: Rajasthan harvest is now underway; estimates suggest robust yield thanks to favorable monsoons.
• Acreage: Marginal increase expected in India’s millet-planted area year-on-year, but yield improvement is the prime driver of supply surge.
• Quality Differentials: Market is rewarding higher purity and organic grades (as seen in UA/CN export offers).
• Speculative Positioning: Low speculative activity in Asian millet futures, with most trading tied to physical arrivals/offtake cycles.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• India (Rajasthan): Monsoon conditions remain favorable with widespread rainfall, aiding final grain filling and boosting yields further. No adverse events forecast in the next week.
• Ukraine: Stable weather ensures reliable post-harvest movement and quality maintenance for export millet.
• China: Normal to above-average temperatures persist; recent rains have been beneficial for late-maturing millet.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Est. Production (kt)	Change YoY	Ending Stocks (kt)
India	10,500	+4%	2,250
China	4,150	+2%	820
Ukraine	700	0%	150
Nigeria	1,900	+3%	350

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Producers: Consider selling gradually into steady demand. Peak arrivals in 1-2 weeks may soften prices—lock in higher-quality premiums early.
• For Traders: Steady market near-term; look for price dips to build inventory, especially for high-purity and organic lots.
• End-users/Importers: Secure forward contracts if sourcing high-quality supplies. Monitor Indian and Ukrainian weather updates for late-season risks.
• Speculators: Volatility remains muted. No immediate signals for sharp moves but potential for weakness as arrivals climb further.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	Current Price	3-Day Outlook	Sentiment
Rajasthan Mandis	Bajra (medium)	$40.5/qtl (avg)	Steady to Slight Softening	Neutral to Soft
Odesa, UA	Millet seeds (red, 98%)	0.30 EUR/kg	Steady/Firm	Firm
Beijing, CN	Millet kernels (organic)	0.81 EUR/kg	Steady/Firm	Firm
Kiełczygłow, PL	Millet seeds (hulled, yellow)	0.45 EUR/kg	Steady/Firm	Firm