The onion market in Gujarat is entering a pivotal period, with the first influx of the new crop appearing, yet a full supply normalization still a month away. This timing is crucial—while some stakeholders hoped for an immediate price correction with the new arrivals, actual relief for consumers and processors is delayed. Right now, prices have found a delicate equilibrium: sufficient stocks have supported demand during India’s festive season, but any major downward movement is on hold until markets in Gondal, Rajkot, Mahuva, and beyond welcome bulk shipments. Arrivals in key districts reflect measured volume, preserving stable prices across wholesale and retail channels.
Analysts and traders are optimistic that an uptick in harvests post-festive season will usher in stable and potentially softer prices. Until then, spot rates across prime centers like Mahuva (8,300 quintals at USD 0.37–0.41/kg), Gondal (7,400 quintals at USD 0.39–0.43/kg), and Rajkot (2,200 quintals at USD 0.38–0.42/kg) highlight a remarkably tight range, underlining the market’s efficient self-regulation and cautious participant sentiment.
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📈 Prices: Market Overview
| Region | Arrivals (quintals) | Price Range (USD/kg) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gondal | 7,400 | 0.39–0.43 | Neutral to Firm |
| Rajkot | 2,200 | 0.38–0.42 | Steady |
| Mahuva | 8,300 | 0.37–0.41 | Steady |
| Jetpur/Bhavnagar | 1,000–3,000 | 0.38–0.42 | Stable |
| Product | Type | Origin | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onion powder | Grade – B | IN | 1.31 | 1.29 | 2025-09-26 |
| Onion powder | White | IN | 1.58 | 1.56 | 2025-09-26 |
| Onion | Powder, Organic | IN | 2.66 | 2.64 | 2025-09-26 |
| Onion | Fresh | EG | 0.80 | 0.78 | 2025-09-26 |
| Onions fried | Crispy (PL) | PL | 3.42 | 3.42 | 2025-09-22 |
| Onion flakes | Organic | IN | 5.15 | 5.11 | 2025-09-26 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Supply: Initial new crop arrivals are supporting demand but will not reach peak for 4–5 weeks. Saurashtra, Mahuva, and Rajkot are upcoming supply hotspots.
- Demand: Festive season demand kept prices elevated; a move toward normalization is expected as festivities end and more product hits the market.
- Imports/Exports: No significant export interventions reported; domestic consumption is the main price driver.
- Speculation: Limited speculative positioning—most participants are tracking physical arrivals and demand pace closely.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparison
- India: Remains the world’s largest onion producer and exporter; Gujarat is a top supplying state with arrivals currently at 40–65% of normal.
- Egypt: Fresh onions trading at EUR 0.80/kg FOB, gaining competitiveness in global markets.
- Processed Onion: Indian powder and flakes continue moderate price gains, reflecting demand for export-ready value addition.
- Stock Levels: Indian wholesale inventory is adequate for monthly requirements but buffer stock is thin due to delayed bulk arrivals.
- Global Trends: Volatility in other exporting origins (e.g., Turkey, the US) due to logistics and weather has so far had limited impact on Indian pricing.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Short-term: Forecasts for Gujarat are favorable—predominantly dry weather, minor chances of patchy showers, and optimum harvesting conditions for the next 10 days.
- Yield Impact: With continued moderate temperatures and low rainfall risk, average yield is expected to remain stable; minimal threat of post-harvest losses.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect steady prices until full crop arrivals begin in late October–early November.
- Processors and exporters should hedge fresh and processed onion requirements for November–December at current rates, given limited downside.
- Spot traders may see minor dips post-festivities but should watch for any weather disruptions.
- Monitor government interventions or import policy shifts, as any curb on exports or speculative hoarding could impact near-term volatility.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Price Range (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| Gondal | 0.39–0.43 | Stable |
| Rajkot | 0.38–0.42 | Stable |
| Mahuva | 0.37–0.41 | Stable |
| Jetpur/Bhavnagar | 0.38–0.42 | Stable |
Outlook: Further price softness possible as arrivals pick up, barring unforeseen weather events.
