The chickpeas market is witnessing an intriguing blend of stability and optimism. Over the past three days, chickpea prices in major Indian markets such as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have held firm, underpinned by notably low stock levels and robust purchasing from flour mills and local buyers. In Rajasthan, prices have hovered around $69–$70 per 100 kg ,while most mandis report price fluctuations within a tight range of $68.80–$69.50 per 100 kg.
The limited arrivals in the domestic market are amplifying the bullish sentiment, especially with mill demand persisting. Meanwhile, the export outlook is brightening, powered by active demand from Bangladesh and reports of fresh export deals. Analysts agree that, barring sudden influxes or abrupt policy shifts, chickpea prices are primed for further upward momentum in the coming weeks. Weather patterns in key growing regions and international trends will be decisive in confirming this recovery trajectory.
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Chickpeas dried
count 75-80, 8 mm
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Chickpeas dried
count 42-44, 12 mm
FOB 1.64 €/kg
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Chickpeas dried
count 60-62, 8 mm
FOB 1.19 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Region | Product/Type | Size | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India (Rajasthan Mandis) | Chickpeas | Mixed | Ex-mandi | 0.69 | 0.0% | Stable-Bullish |
| Mexico City (MX) | Chickpeas dried | 75-80, 8 mm | FOB | 1.12 | 0.0% | Stable |
| Mexico City (MX) | Chickpeas dried | 42-44, 12 mm | FOB | 1.64 | 0.0% | Stable |
| New Delhi (IN) | Chickpeas dried | 60-62, 8 mm | FOB | 1.19 | 0.0% | Stable |
| New Delhi (IN) | Chickpeas dried | 58-60, 9 mm | FOB | 1.20 | 0.0% | Stable |
| New Delhi (IN) | Chickpeas dried | 46-48, 10 mm | FOB | 1.24 | 0.0% | Stable |
| New Delhi (IN) | Chickpeas dried | 44-46, 11 mm | FOB | 1.26 | 0.0% | Stable |
| New Delhi (IN) | Chickpeas dried | 42-44, 12 mm | FOB | 1.25 | 0.0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Stocks in both Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have shrunk considerably, limiting arrivals and keeping prices buoyant.
- Mill Demand: Remains strong, especially from flour mills which is sustaining the higher price floor.
- Export Demand: Fresh buying from Bangladesh is acting as a demand kicker, with new export contracts being closed.
- Global Exports: Mexico’s supplies remain stable with unchanged prices; global trade flows are steady but watching India’s supply situation.
📊 Fundamentals
- Prices stable over the last week across major origins and sizes, with no notable price cuts reported.
- Bulk of the market move is built on domestic tightness and strong end-user demand.
- Lesser mandi arrivals may continue unless stocks are released or new policy changes emerge.
- Speculative positions appear neutral; no significant selloffs or speculative drives observed in recent sessions.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact
- India (Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan): Weather conditions remain favorable for the standing rabi crop, with normal temperatures recorded. However, rainfall has been below normal in some regions, which could affect yield if persisting.
- Mexico: No immediate adverse weather threats reported; crop condition stable.
- Near-term impact: Stable to mildly supportive as Indian field conditions are not deteriorating, though vigilance needed if dry spells continue in Rajasthan.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024 Production Estimate (kt) | Ending Stock (kt) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | Estimated 11,000 | 900 | Export restrictions, tight domestic stocks |
| Mexico | ~180 | 15 | Stable exports |
| Australia | 1,170 | 220 | Good exportable surplus |
| Turkey | 630 | 35 | Domestic consumption prioritized |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-Term: Remain on the buy side for spot contracts, as the price recovery is supported by tight supply and sustained demand.
- Exporters: Leverage current demand from Bangladesh and keep watch on Indian supply releases or export policy updates.
- End-users/Flour Mills: Secure near-term requirements as price dips seem unlikely unless arrivals surge unexpectedly.
- Producers: Monitor weather and harvest progress closely; a significant dry spell in Indian states may further tighten supplies.
- Speculators: Bullish tilt, but stay alert for signs of policy shifts or large-scale arrivals.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rajasthan Mandis | 0.69 | 0.69 – 0.71 | Firm to slightly higher |
| New Delhi (FOB) | 1.19–1.26 | 1.19–1.29 | Upward bias |
| Mexico City (FOB) | 1.12–1.64 | 1.12–1.68 | Stable to firm |
