The global soybean market is navigating a phase of muted optimism, with prices displaying limited upward momentum in both international and domestic spheres. In the Indian market, especially in Jalna, soybean prices have recently adjusted to USD 54.50 per 100 kg—down USD 0.60 from prior levels—reflecting cautious sentiment and soft demand. The lack of a significant rebound, despite a narrow price correction, highlights the prevailing bearish undertone shaped by both international and domestic forces.
Key to this subdued performance are ongoing weak signals from the world’s main edible oil markets in Malaysia and the United States. Technical selling pressure observed on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures has filtered through to global and Indian prices. Meanwhile, analysts anticipate that until a meaningful shift occurs in export demand or global edible oil trends, the market is likely to remain in a holding pattern. Add to this sluggish domestic consumption and the lackluster export demand, and traders are left waiting for a catalyst to break the range-bound trend. As harvest progresses in key Northern Hemisphere regions, traders are closely monitoring weather patterns, crop progress, and the next moves in global edible oil futures.
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📈 Prices: Spot and Exchange Overview
| Origin | Type | Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | No. 2 | Washington D.C. | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| IN | Sortex Clean | New Delhi | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.00 | Stable |
| UA | – | Odesa | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| CN | Yellow, organic (99.8%) | Beijing | 0.77 | 0.76 | +0.01 | Firm/Up |
| CN | Yellow (99.5%) | Beijing | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| IN | Soya powder (lecithin, organic) | New Delhi | 2.77 | 2.77 | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- International Pressure: Weak signals from Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil set a negative tone for soy markets globally.
- Technical Selling: Speculative liquidation in CBOT futures continues to weigh on market confidence.
- Domestic Stagnation: Indian market lacks support due to modest processing and subdued feed/edible oil industry demand.
- Harvest Progress: US and Brazilian crops are advancing, with global supplies remaining ample, putting a lid on sharp rallies.
📊 Fundamental Data
- USDA Prospects: The most recent USDA report notes above-average soybean production in the US, with ending stocks projected to be comfortable barring weather shocks.
- Global Inventories: South American stocks remain well supplied following robust harvests in Brazil and Argentina.
- Speculative Positions: Managed money has shifted to a more neutral stance, with long positions trimmed amidst lackluster global oilseed demand.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- US Midwest: Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture, benefiting late-planted beans. Lingering dryness in select areas may cap yield potential but does not threaten a major loss.
- Brazil: Favorable planting weather expected, with La Niña risks receding, improving outlook for next crop year.
- India: Monsoon performance has been satisfactory in main soybean regions, supporting current crop health.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Overview
| Country | 2024/25 Production (Mn t) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mn t) |
|---|---|---|
| United States | >120* | 27* |
| Brazil | ~155* | 25* |
| Argentina | ~50* | 10* |
| India | ~12* | 2* |
| China | ~20* | 20* |
*Estimates, subject to revision as harvest data is confirmed.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect soybean prices to remain range-bound as global inventories are ample and demand lacks a near-term catalyst.
- Indian buyers may see occasional price dips as an opportunity; however, upside appears capped by weak crush margins and muted oilseed demand.
- Exporters should monitor currency volatility and potential shifts in global edible oil sentiment, especially from the US and Malaysia.
- Short-term speculative plays in futures markets should build in downside risks, especially if harvest pace accelerates and weather remains benign.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Latest Price | Forecast Range | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT (US) | Approx. USD 12.30/bu | USD 12.10–12.40/bu | Neutral/Soft |
| NCDEX (India) | USD 54.50/100 kg | USD 54.00–55.00/100 kg | Neutral |
| Euronext (EU) | EUR 430/t* | EUR 426–432/t | Weak |
*Indicative, based on latest web and vector data.
