Mustard Seeds Market: Price Slide Steepens Amid Heavy Selling, Global Edible Oil Weakness

The Indian mustard market finds itself under considerable pressure as a wave of selling from oil mills and stockists combines with a general malaise in global edible oil markets. Over the last several weeks, an estimated 300,000 metric tons of mustard have been liquidated, leading to an abundant supply in major trading centers such as Alwar and Bharatpur. This heavy offloading, occurring just ahead of the new crop arrivals early next year, has pushed prices below recent benchmarks and stirred cautious sentiment among growers and traders.

The situation is further compounded by international headwinds; global rapeseed, soybean, and palm oil futures remain subdued, putting additional downward pressure on domestic mustard prices. While expectations for India’s 2024–25 harvest are slightly constrained due to patchy monsoon rains, the sowing area remains largely stable, suggesting production will not dramatically diverge from last year. With festive demand faded and no clear catalysts for a rebound on the horizon, the mustard seed market appears set for a period of range-bound, subdued trading. Unless unpredictable weather events or a sudden rally in global edible oils intervene, the coming months are likely to test the patience and resolve of market participants.

📈 Prices: Market Snapshot

Product	Type/Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	1W Change	Market Sentiment
Mustard seeds	Yellow, micro, sortex (IN)	New Delhi	FOB	0.85	0%	Bearish
Mustard seeds	Yellow, bold, sortex (IN)	New Delhi	FOB	1.01	0%	Bearish
Mustard seeds	Brown, micro, sortex (IN)	New Delhi	FOB	0.85	0%	Bearish
Mustard seeds	Brown, bold, sortex (IN)	New Delhi	FOB	0.78	0%	Bearish
Mustard seeds	Sinapis alba (KZ)	Kiełczygłow, PL	FCA	0.73	-2.7%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• 🛒 Inventory Liquidation: ~300,000 MT sold in recent weeks as stockists and mills release inventories
• 🌱 Sowing Area: 7.5 million hectares in 2024, marginally lower than 2023’s 7.6 million hectares
• 🍂 Demand Seasonality: Festive season demand has receded; limited upside until February 2025, when new crop arrives
• 🌏 External Influence: Weakening prices in global edible oils (soybean, palm, rapeseed) weighing on sentiment
• 💧 Weather: Erratic monsoon patterns reported, but major loss avoided; still, weather remains a watchpoint

📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparison

Country	2023/24 Output (MT)	2024/25 Est. Output (MT)	Sown Area (mln ha)	Ending Stocks (MT)
India	~11.5 mil	~11.2 mil	7.5	Subdued
EU	6.2 mil	6.0 mil	2.1	Stable
Canada	1.1 mil	1.15 mil	0.38	Stable
China	5.7 mil	5.65 mil	0.7	Low

Note: Indian production and stocks estimates reflect anticipated reduction due to weather.

🌦 Weather Outlook

• 🔎 Rajasthan, Haryana, MP: Recent showers beneficial for late sown crop; temperatures near seasonal norm
• ⚠ Some pockets remain below average soil moisture, but no major yield threats reported
• 🌡 Forecast (next 10 days): Slightly above normal temperatures, limited rainfall; supports ongoing crop development but needs monitoring for heat spikes

📅 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Short-Term: Continued inventory liquidation and weak global oils market to pressure prices
• 🥈 Floor Level: Market may test support at $61.20 per quintal unless external edible oil prices rebound
• 🔄 Range-Bound: Most likely trade in $61.20–$63.60 per quintal until February 2025
• ⏳ Strategy: Buyers should approach with caution; sellers may consider staggered sales to avoid further price dips
• 🌀 Event Risk: Watch for weather disruptions or unexpected moves in global edible oil prices for potential volatility

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price (USD/quintal)	Expected Range (Next 3 Days)
Alwar (IN)	62.40	61.20 – 62.80
Bharatpur (IN)	62.40	61.40 – 63.00
New Delhi (FOB, EUR/kg)	0.85 – 1.01	0.82 – 1.01