The global coconut market is weathering a period of pronounced seasonal volatility, with Brazil—one of the world’s significant coconut producers—showing sharp declines in coconut water consumption during the winter months of 2025. Data from Brazil’s National Union of Coconut Producers (Sindicoco) reveals consumption fell by up to 80% in some regions, sharply impacting fresh coconut sales and forcing producers to pivot towards dried coconut and higher-value derivatives such as oil, milk, and confectionery products. Innovative production models are emerging, such as hybridization between fresh and industrial sales, cushioning losses and maintaining employment in key regions like Petrolândia.
Meanwhile, prices for coconut derivatives in global markets have remained steady, underpinned by strong European import demand and stable supply chains from Southeast Asian origins. As climate and market seasonality reshape the coconut industry’s landscape, adaptive strategies and close watch of weather in primary production zones will be vital for both producers and traders in navigating the months ahead.
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Coconut dried
flakes
FOB 4.62 €/kg
(from VN)
Coconut dried
flakes
FCA 3.10 €/kg
(from NL)
Coconut dried
flakes
FCA 2.70 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Type | Organic | Delivery | Price (EUR/mt) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconut dried flakes | Vietnam (VN) | Hanoi | Flakes | No | FOB | 4.62 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Coconut dried flakes | Philippines (PH) | Dordrecht (NL) | Flakes | Yes | FCA | 3.10 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Coconut dried flakes | Philippines (PH) | Dordrecht (NL) | Flakes | No | FCA | 2.70 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Coconut dried, desiccated | Indonesia (ID) | Dordrecht (NL) | Medium grade | No | FCA | 1.95 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Coconut dried, desiccated | Indonesia (ID) | Dordrecht (NL) | Desiccated | No | FCA | 2.00 | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Brazil’s coconut water consumption plummeted up to 80% in winter 2025, especially in the South and Southeast. Producers in the Northeast also saw suppressed demand due to colder weather.
- Petrolândia (Pernambuco) is now the leading coconut producing municipality: 162,000 tonnes and USD 20.1 million turnover in 2024. Ceará state remains top with 588,500 tonnes, Bahia is second with 360,000 tonnes.
- Small-scale plantations dominate: average 2.5 hectares, ensuring year-round albeit uneven production.
- Diversification towards dried coconut and by-products (milk, shredded coconut, oil, soap) has helped to mitigate losses.
- EU demand for coconut dried products and derivatives remains supportive, with stable pricing observed in late September 2025.
- Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam remain key suppliers of coconut derivatives to Europe, ensuring stable import flows.
📊 Fundamentals
- Hybrid production models (fresh + industrial) are gaining traction to hedge against seasonal dips in fresh coconut sales.
- Farm labor remains essential: about 1.5 workers per hectare and approximately 250 direct jobs in the São Francisco Valley.
- Processing capacities support regional rural economies and ensure off-season income.
- Price stability at global exchanges and wholesale markets maintained by adequate stocks and diversified end markets.
🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook
- Brazil, NE Region: Winter 2025 has been colder and drier than average, limiting coconut water demand and slowing fruit development, but not significantly curbing overall supply due to irrigation and adaptive farm practices.
- Philippines, Indonesia: Recent ENSO-neutral conditions have favored good yield prospects for Q3-Q4 2025; no major weather disruptions reported. Regular rainfall and favorable temperatures point to stable supply in key growing regions.
- Vietnam: Seasonal rains returned to major coconut producing provinces, boosting vegetative growth and fruit set.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (est. Mt) | Main Products |
|---|---|---|
| Philippines | ~14.7 | Copra, Dried coconut, Oil, Water |
| Indonesia | ~17.0 | Copra, Dried coconut, Oil, Water |
| Brazil | ~2.6 | Fresh, Water, Derivatives |
| Vietnam | ~1.3 | Dried coconut, Water, Oil |
🚦 Trading Outlook & Insights
- Producers in Brazil: Continue diversifying output into dried and value-added coconut products until fresh coconut water demand rebounds in spring/summer.
- EU buyers: Take advantage of steady prices and secure contracts for Q4 2025 delivery as Southeast Asian supply appears robust and reliable.
- Importers: Monitor weather patterns in the Philippines and Indonesia but expect only minor risk to upcoming harvest quality.
- Financial traders: Speculative positions remain modest; market is in a holding pattern. No major uptrend or downside risk currently observed.
- Industrial buyers: Consider forward contracts for coconut milk, oil, and desiccated forms to lock in current stable prices.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Origin | Region | Forecast (EUR/mt) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconut dried flakes | VN | Hanoi | 4.62 | Stable |
| Coconut dried flakes (organic) | PH | Dordrecht (NL) | 3.10 | Stable |
| Coconut dried flakes | PH | Dordrecht (NL) | 2.70 | Stable |
