The global chickpeas market is at a pivotal moment as firm international demand and domestic supply challenges converge. In recent weeks, Kabuli chickpeas have witnessed a marked uptick in prices, particularly in India’s key production belts. The market’s lifeblood, bolstered by robust export interest from West Asia, North Africa, and Europe, is further stressed by localized production constraints. Delayed sowing in the major producing state of Maharashtra, attributed to erratic monsoon patterns, has reduced the expected planted area and pushed millers and Stuckists to secure available stocks more aggressively.
Current inventories are stretched, leading to heightened competition among buyers and a sharp rally of 8–10% in average prices over the past week. India’s grip on the export market remains strong, as international supply from competitors is limited, granting Indian exporters a temporary advantage. However, the outlook hinges on critical weather developments and the pace of sowing into October. Should current conditions persist, further price escalations could be on the horizon. For producers, processors, and traders, attentive monitoring of weather updates and market arrivals is paramount in the upcoming weeks.
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📈 Prices
| Origin | Type | Count / Size | Location | FOB Price (EUR/tonne) | Price Change (Weekly) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Kabuli | 42-44, 12 mm | New Delhi | 1,250 | +8-10% | Bullish |
| India | Kabuli | 44-46, 11 mm | New Delhi | 1,260 | Stable | Firm |
| India | Kabuli | 46-48, 10 mm | New Delhi | 1,240 | Stable | Firm |
| Mexico | Kabuli | 42-44, 12 mm | Mexico City | 1,640 | Stable | Firm |
| Mexico | Kabuli | 75-80, 8 mm | Mexico City | 1,120 | Stable | Cautious |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India remains the top global exporter of Kabuli chickpeas, supported by steady demand from West Asia, North Africa, and EU markets.
- Market arrivals are currently limited, with Maharashtra stocks estimated at only 200,000–250,000 tonnes.
- Domestic buyers—especially millers and stockists—are actively building inventories amid tight supply.
- International competition is subdued, enhancing India’s role, though Mexico maintains significant presence in medium-large grades.
📊 Fundamentals
- Sowing Delays: Late monsoon in Maharashtra is slowing chickpea planting, raising prospects of a smaller harvest.
- Stocks: Inventory with millers and traders remains tight, adding pressure to wholesale prices.
- Export Demand: Export-oriented processors are buying actively amid limited competition from other origins.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Maharashtra: Meteorological updates indicate scattered, uneven rainfall, which could further challenge planting progress if not regularized within October.
- Forecast Impact: Further delays or drought conditions may risk lowering planted area and ultimately reducing harvest volumes, sustaining upward price pressure.
- Other Indian States: Overall chickpea belt is experiencing mixed to below-normal rainfall, warranting close short-term monitoring.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparisons
| Country | 2024/25 Output (Est., 1,000 t) | Stocks (Latest, 1,000 t) | Key Export Destinations |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~1,860 | 200–250* | West Asia, North Africa, Europe |
| Mexico | 975 | 370 | EU, Middle East, US |
| Turkey | 600 | 100 | EU, Middle East |
*India: Available in Maharashtra; broader stock data from government and trade sources required for updated accuracy.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term bullishness expected to persist with constrained supply and robust export demand.
- Monitor sowing progress in Maharashtra closely. Any improvement in monsoon or planting rates could temporarily stabilize prices.
- Traders should secure contracts proactively, as further price gains of USD 10–15/tonne possible in the next 2 weeks if arrivals remain limited.
- Risk management is advised for buyers facing delivery in Q4, as market volatility could intensify based on weather news and export demand surges.
- Exporters are encouraged to capitalize on firm prices but should watch for a possible shift in global competition if Mexican or Turkish supply picks up.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region / Exchange | Spot Price (USD/tonne) | Expected 3-Day Range | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indore (India) | 865 | 860 – 880 | Bullish |
| Maharashtra (India) | 745–780 | 750 – 795 | Firm |
| Mexico City (Mexico) | 1,120–1,640 (EUR) | Stable | Cautious |
