The global almonds market is facing an intriguing period of transition, marked by rising demand from India set against the backdrop of challenged domestic production and a complex supply scenario across major origins. India—already the second-largest consumer of almonds worldwide—is at the center of this shift. The country is projected to increase its almond imports by 3% in the 2025–26 marketing year to 190,000 tones (shelled basis), even as its domestic harvest shrinks slightly to 4,100 tones due to adverse weather and aging orchards in Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Indian consumers’ growing purchasing power and an expanding base of health-conscious youth are driving robust demand.
Almonds are now a staple in Indian diets, with consumption expected to reach 195,000 tones—marking a near 5% year-over-year increase. This trend not only reflects India’s socio-economic transformation but also promises ongoing support for international prices, especially as other producing regions navigate their own weather and yield uncertainties. Price pressures, weather volatility, and shifting planting patterns (notably the move from almonds to apples in Indian orchards) continue to influence the broader market. As India intensifies its role as a major importer, exporters—particularly from the US and Spain—are closely monitoring crop prospects and pricing dynamics to meet rising Asian demand.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr, 18/20
FAS 6.72 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr 20/22
FAS 6.68 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr
FOB 9.32 €/kg
(from US)
📈 Prices & Market Overview
| Product | Origin | Location | Type/Grade | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds kernels | US | Washington D.C. | carmel, ssr, 18/20 | FAS | 6.72 | 6.77 | -0.05 |
| Almonds kernels | US | Washington D.C. | carmel, ssr 20/22 | FAS | 6.68 | 6.73 | -0.05 |
| Almonds kernels (Organic) | US | Washington D.C. | natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr | FOB | 9.32 | 9.37 | -0.05 |
| Almond kernels | ES | Madrid | marcona, 12/14 | FOB | 6.65 | 6.7 | -0.05 |
| Almond kernels | ES | Madrid | marcona, 14/16 | FOB | 8.25 | 8.3 | -0.05 |
| Almond kernels | ES | Madrid | marcona, S/16 | FOB | 8.90 | 8.95 | -0.05 |
| Almond kernels | ES | Madrid | valencia, 10/12 | FOB | 5.65 | 5.70 | -0.05 |
| Almond kernels | ES | Madrid | valencia, 12/14 | FOB | 5.60 | 5.65 | -0.05 |
| Almond kernels | ES | Madrid | valencia + 14 mm | FOB | 5.95 | 6.00 | -0.05 |
| Almond kernels | ES | Madrid | guara bajo, 12 | FOB | 5.68 | 5.73 | -0.05 |
| Almond kernels | ES | Madrid | guara, 12/14 MMS | FOB | 5.95 | 6.00 | -0.05 |
| Almond kernels | ES | Madrid | Guara, S/14 | FOB | 6.15 | 6.20 | -0.05 |
| Almond kernels (Organic) | ES | Madrid | natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr | FOB | 11.60 | 11.65 | -0.05 |
Market Sentiment: Slightly bearish short-term, as recent offers reflect EUR 0.05/kg declines across key grades. However, robust Asian demand provides strong medium-term support.
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- India: Imports to reach 190,000 tonnes (+3% YoY), domestic production to slide to 4,100 tonnes. Consumption estimated at 195,000 tonnes (+4.8%).
- United States: Continues to lead as the largest producer and exporter, particularly to Asia.
- Spain: Remains a significant supplier to EU and international markets.
- Supply Pressures: Poor soil moisture and climate-related stress are impacting Indian, US (California drought risk), and Spanish orchards.
- Demand Trends: Health trends, rising incomes, and e-commerce expansion drive increased consumption in India and globally.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Weather: Ongoing challenges in key Indian regions (Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh). Drought warnings in California and Spain could further tighten global supply.
- Speculative Positioning: Traders remain cautious as most price action is headline-driven and influenced by Indian import activity.
- Government Policy: Subsidies for apples in India may further reduce local almond acreage, impacting future supplies.
- Macro Demand: India’s young demographic and health awareness trends strongly support continued growth in almond consumption.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- India: Weak monsoon rains threaten to reduce orchard recovery in Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, raising concerns about future yields.
- California, US: Forecasts call for above-average summer temperatures and below-normal rainfall, sustaining drought stress.
- Spain: Recent rainfall has been insufficient in key Valencia and Andalusia producing areas. Ongoing drought conditions may impact overall yield and nut size.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (kt) | 2024/25 Stocks (kt) | Import/Export |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | ~1,250 | 375 | Largest exporter |
| Spain | 90–95 | 15 | Major exporter to EU |
| India | 4.1 | n/a | Major importer |
| Australia | 125 | 20 | Growing exporter |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Consider locking in contracts for US and Spanish almonds ahead of possible weather-driven price spikes.
- Sellers/Exporters: Maintain flexibility; strong Indian demand offers margin opportunities even in a slightly bearish global phase.
- Watch for: Upcoming monsoon and California drought updates; Indian holiday demand; USDA and government acreage reports.
- Hedgers: Monitor short-term price dips for value-buying, given the medium- to long-term bullish demand fundamentals.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Trend | 3-Day Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| US (FAS Washington) | 6.68–6.72 | 🔽 Stable to Slightly Down | 6.65–6.70 |
| Spain (FOB Madrid) | 5.60–8.90 | 🔽 Slightly Down | 5.55–8.85 |
| Organic (FOB Washington D.C./Madrid) | 9.32 / 11.60 | 🔽 Slightly Down | 9.25 / 11.50 |
Note: Price trends are moderately bearish short-term but underpinned by strong medium-term demand fundamentals, particularly from India and Asia.
