The global almond market is in a state of cautious optimism, characterized by steady prices, modest demand growth, and important new production signals out of Eastern Europe. The US and Spain remain the core suppliers, but the news of Ukraine’s successful adaptation and experimental harvest of Spanish almond varieties is generating significant long-term interest. Industrial almond production in Ukraine—should it scale successfully—could alter the competitive balance in European nut markets, adding pressure on traditional exporters, especially Spain, while introducing new resilience in European supply chains.
On the pricing front, kernel prices across key US and Spanish grades show a slight downward trend, reflecting moderate export movements and comfortable inventories. In Spain, weather conditions remain mostly favorable following winter rains, though localized dryness persists in the southeast, where late spring frost threats have thus far been limited. In California, the world’s primary almond hub, ongoing irrigation challenges and reservoir levels remain a point of fundamental support for prices, though current year crop assessments are close to forecast.
As market actors weigh the prospect of Ukraine evolving into a future almond exporter, the current landscape is still shaped by steady demand from the confectionery and snack sectors, stable global stocks, and the shifting speculative appetite in commodities markets due to broader macro volatility. Both buyers and sellers should monitor early harvest and planting outcomes in Ukraine and the Black Sea for signals of competitive shifts over the next 3-5 years.
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Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr, 18/20
FAS 6.72 €/kg
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Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr 20/22
FAS 6.68 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr
FOB 9.32 €/kg
(from US)
📈 Almond Prices at Major Markets
| Type/Grade | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmel, SSR, 18/20 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.72 | 6.77 | -0.74% | Stable/Soft |
| Carmel, SSR, 20/22 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.68 | 6.73 | -0.74% | Stable/Soft |
| Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic) | US | Washington D.C. | FOB | 9.32 | 9.37 | -0.53% | Stable/Premium Hold |
| Marcona, 12/14 | Spain | Madrid | FOB | 6.65 | 6.7 | -0.75% | Soft |
| Marcona, 14/16 | Spain | Madrid | FOB | 8.25 | 8.3 | -0.60% | Stable |
| Valencia, 10/12 | Spain | Madrid | FOB | 5.65 | 5.7 | -0.88% | Discount/Soft |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Steady global demand—snacking, confectionery, and bakery sectors remain robust, but no significant new demand surges reported.
- US stocks remain sufficient ahead of 2025 harvest; slight uptick in EU imports YTD.
- Early Ukrainian industrial cultivation trials suggest possible new supplies for regional EU markets within 3-5 years; Spanish and US exporters are monitoring closely.
- Speculative positions are neutral to moderately long, as investors hedge broader commodity risk.
📊 Market Fundamentals
| Country | 2023/24 Prod. (est. mt) | 2023/24 Ending Stocks (mt) | Market Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 1,250,000 | 280,000 | Leading Producer/Exporter |
| Spain | 90,000 | 24,000 | Major EU Supplier |
| Australia | 120,000 | 30,000 | Global Exporter |
| Ukraine | <500 (experimental) | n.a. | Emerging Producer |
| China | 65,000 | ≥20,000 | Import-dependent |
| India | 40,000 | n.a. | Major Importer |
- US and Spain control over 85% of exportable supplies; US remains price setter.
- Stock levels globally are marginally higher YoY (+2-5%) supporting price stability.
- Ukraine’s trials (Penta and Makako varieties) have not moved the global needle yet, but add mid-term optionality for EU buyers.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Development Outlook
- California: Near-normal temperature, moderate precipitation outlook for the next 10 days; irrigation water supplies mostly adequate, but monitor reservoir trends for late summer.
- Spain: Favorable spring weather, but continued need for irrigation in southern/semi-arid regions. No critical frost damage reported post-flowering.
- Ukraine: Mild, wet spring aiding young orchards; successful flowering and early fruit set for Spanish varieties (Penta/Makako) in Kirovohrad, Odessa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv.
📌 Market Drivers
- USDA Reports: Affirm steady supply, above-average yields in California, modest growth for 2025 crop.
- Crop Acreage Trends: Spanish plantings stable; Ukraine experimental plantings rising but no significant commercial output expected before 2027.
- Inventories: Global almond inventories stable to moderately higher YoY—offsetting speculative market anxiety.
- Speculation: Managed money/investor interest flat to fractionally bullish; no crowding observed.
- EU Import Demand: Steady, some anticipation around future Ukrainian supply options for processed/industrial sectors.
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📉 Sellers: Consider forward contracts to lock in current price levels, as global stocks and softening recent prices present mild downside risk in the short term.
- 📈 Buyers: Opportunity to secure product for late 2025 delivery at a slight discount versus historical averages; consider diversifying sources to include Spanish and (eventually) Ukrainian origins.
- 📊 Investors: Ukraine’s success with Spanish varieties warrants long-term strategic attention; watch for policy signals/expansion incentives.
📆 3-Day Almond Price Forecast (Major Exchanges)
| Type | Exchange/Market | Spot Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range (EUR/kg) | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmel SSR 18/20 | US (DC/FAS) | 6.72 | 6.70 – 6.74 | Stable/Soft |
| Marcona 12/14 | Spain (FOB Madrid) | 6.65 | 6.60 – 6.68 | Soft |
| Organic Nonpareil 27/30 | US (DC/FOB) | 9.32 | 9.28 – 9.35 | Stable/Premium Hold |
