The Brazilian guava market is undergoing a pivotal transformation, spearheaded by efforts in Carlópolis, Paraná, as industry leaders work to expand direct export channels to the European Union and global markets. At the heart of this push is the Carlópolis Agroindustrial Cooperative (COAC), which has consolidated its position with Geographical Indication (GI) status and GlobalGAP certification, ensuring traceability and food safety meet the highest international standards. In preparation for the Fruit Attraction trade fair in Madrid, Brazilian exporters are redefining logistics—shifting focus from air to sea freight, with prospects for integrating controlled atmosphere technology. This evolution aims to deliver guavas at their peak flavor stage and cater to increasingly discerning consumers abroad, particularly in France, England, and Portugal, while lowering costs and improving market reach.
With export volumes exceeding 340 tonnes between 2020 and 2024 and ambitions to further scale, Brazilian guava producers are strategically positioning themselves as premium suppliers. The market is closely watched: logistics decisions, new partnerships, and weather volatility could significantly impact both prices and supply in the coming months.
📈 Prices at a Glance
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Closing Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guava dried | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 5.23 | 0.00 | Neutral/Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- Brazilian exports: Over 340 tonnes exported from COAC (2020–2024), with France, England, and Portugal as primary destinations.
- Logistics expansion: Direct export strategies aim to reach buyers with riper, higher-quality guavas, moving away from intermediary channels.
- Potential new markets: Smaller volumes shipped to the Netherlands and Canada; further expansion anticipated.
- Global standards: GlobalGAP certification and GI status provide Brazilian guavas with strong market entry credentials.
- Supply risk factors: Weather, sea freight capacity, and post-harvest technologies will be critical for upcoming campaigns.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Logistics costs: Evaluation underway for controlled atmosphere sea freight, which could reduce shipment costs by up to 8x versus air transport.
- Quality & ripeness: Planned shift to exporting riper fruit could differentiate Brazilian guavas as a high-flavor, premium product.
- Technical standards: GlobalGAP and GI status underline traceability and food safety, attracting European and high-value markets.
- Current price stability: Dried guava FOB Hanoi: 5.23 EUR/kg, unchanged week-on-week, with a stable market outlook.
- Trade fair strategy: Fruit Attraction in Madrid (Sep 30–Oct 2) as a launchpad for new logistics partnerships.
⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Key growing regions: Carlópolis, Paraná – weather over the past month has been moderately favorable, with average temperatures and rainfall that supported stable flowering and fruit set.
- Outlook: Short-term forecast for Paraná signals normal rainfall, though some risk of cold snaps remains. No extreme events are currently forecast to disrupt guava harvests, supporting a neutral supply-side outlook in early October.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Estimated 2023/24 Output (tonnes) | Key Export Destinations |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | ~50,000* | France, UK, Portugal, Netherlands, Canada |
| India | ~17,000,000* | Domestic focus, limited exports |
| Vietnam | ~350,000* | Asia, US, EU |
*Estimates; Brazil figures for Carlópolis COAC export segment only.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor negotiations and logistics innovations announced at the Madrid fair—potential for cost reductions and improved supply chain efficiency.
- Exporters: Prepare for new opportunities in direct-to-buyer channels, but plan for possible delays during logistics transitions.
- Importers: Evaluate quality and traceability systems; Brazil’s GI and GlobalGAP credentials signal reliable supply for premium markets.
- Traders: Stable prices in dried guava offer little short-term volatility, but sea transportation adoption could compress margins or boost competitiveness.
- Keep an eye on weather in South Brazil—while short-term outlook is stable, any late frost risk could impact fresh supplies.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Date | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-27 | Hanoi (Dried Guava, FOB) | 5.23 | Stable |
| 2024-06-28 | Hanoi (Dried Guava, FOB) | 5.23 | Stable |
| 2024-06-29 | Hanoi (Dried Guava, FOB) | 5.23 | Stable |