Wheat Market Analysis: Price Firmness Amidst Policy Support and Global Weakness

The wheat market is demonstrating remarkable resilience in the face of diverging domestic and international forces. Over the past week, domestic wheat prices have shown clear firmness, advancing from $388 to $392 USD/ton, a move primarily propelled by the Indian government’s revised Minimum Support Price (MSP) policy. For instance, in Haryana, the MSP was raised from $378 to $384 USD/ton for the new season, igniting bullish sentiments and fuelling price optimism among traders.

Notably, regional spot markets reflected brisk demand for premium grades, as seen in Ahmedabad (up to $392 USD/ton) and Rajasthan (top-tier lots fetching $414 USD/ton). However, the international stage paints a contrasting picture: CBOT December wheat futures softened by $0.02 per bushel, mirroring a broader theme of pressure on global benchmarks despite robust domestic momentum. The interplay between firm government policies, healthy local demand, and persistent international headwinds is shaping a complex landscape. Stakeholders must now also keep a close watch on shifting weather patterns and evolving global inventory data, as uncertainty lingers around harvest quality and export flows. In the short-term, market volatility remains likely, yet the price floor seems well-supported domestically.

📈 Prices: Spot & Futures Overview

Market	Description	Price Range (USD/ton)
Ahmedabad	General market	389 – 392
	Lokwan Wheat	386 – 390
	Tukdi Wheat	384 – 389
	Medium Quality Wheat	390 – 392
	Good Quality Lokwan	396 – 402
	Super Quality Wheat	408 – 414
Indore	Arrivals 1,000 sacks	384 – 396
Rajasthan	Medium Quality (500 sacks)	390 – 392
Rajasthan	Higher Quality	408 – 414

Exchange	Contract/Type	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT	Dec 2025	$0.21 USD/kg (Washington D.C., FOB)	-0.02 USD/kg	Bearish
Euronext	Protein min. 11%	€0.27 EUR/kg (Paris, FOB)	-0.02 EUR/kg	Weak
Ukraine	Protein min. 11.5%	€0.25 EUR/kg (Odesa, FCA)	Unchanged	Stable
	Protein min. 11.5%	€0.24 EUR/kg (Kyiv, FCA)	Unchanged	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Government Policy: Increased MSP in India strengthens the domestic price floor and encourages farmers to market wheat at higher rates.
• Global Benchmarks: CBOT and Euronext show mild softness, reflecting ample global supply and subdued import demand.
• Domestic Arrivals: Consistent arrival volumes (e.g., 1,000 sacks/day in Indore, 500 in Rajasthan) reflect healthy supply, yet premium quality is in greater demand.
• Speculative Activity: Recent CFTC reports indicate that speculative short positions have increased slightly on CBOT, capping attempts at a global price rally.
• Inventories: USDA’s last WASDE highlights minor reductions in global ending stocks, but inventories remain above 5-year averages, especially in exporters like Russia and Australia.

📊 Fundamentals & Quality Trends

• Strong trade in premium and super-quality wheat in domestic markets underpins overall firm pricing.
• Import offers from Ukraine and France (protein 11–11.5%) remain steady, with protein premiums largely intact.
• Export interest from Black Sea origins is stable but held back somewhat by logistical complexities and regional instability.

Country	Wheat Production (2024/25, est., mln t)	Ending Stocks (mln t)
India	112.0	15.2
Russia	90.5	16.5
Australia	27.5	4.7
Ukraine	22.5	2.6
US	49.3	15.3
EU	130.2	13.5

⛅ Weather Outlook for Key Regions

• Black Sea: Mild conditions recently in Ukraine and Russia; latest forecasts signal increased precipitation, supporting late planting and early crop growth but with flooding risks.
• India: Monsoon withdrawal almost complete; the main wheat belt (Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh) expects cool, dry spells—ideal for sowing.
• Australia: Southeastern regions have faced short-term dryness, but new rains may stabilize output projections.
• US Plains: Moderate rain continues to improve soil moisture, enhancing 2025 crop outlook.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Domestic buyers should secure high-quality wheat as availability thins and MSP increases underpin local prices.
• Exporters: Monitor Black Sea logistics and currency movements for arbitrage opportunities.
• Importers: Take advantage of stable Black Sea and EU offer prices before potential supply interruptions.
• Watch for new government procurement announcements and weather updates for supply/price risk management.
• Maintain vigilance on speculative positioning on CBOT—as risk reversal could prompt price volatility globally.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• CBOT: Sideways to weak, likely range $0.20–$0.21/kg (FOB)
• France (Euronext): Mildly soft, expected €0.26–€0.27/kg (FOB)
• Ukraine (Odesa/Kyiv): Stable at €0.24–€0.25/kg (FCA); $388–$392 USD/ton spot in Indian markets with upside bias if demand persists