Rice Market Tensions: Fee Hikes, Industry Protest, and Export Uncertainty

The global rice market, led by India, is in the spotlight as major structural shifts and government interventions reshape the trading landscape. Recent weeks have seen rising discontent among basmati rice exporters from Haryana and Punjab, who have forcefully opposed the Indian government’s decision to raise the rice export registration fee from $0.36 to $0.84 per tone—a move exporters describe as arbitrary and burdensome. This fee increase, justified as a contribution to the Basmati Export Development Foundation (BEDF), is seen by the trade as lacking transparency and failing to provide tangible benefits for farmers, particularly in light of recent flood damage to key basmati-growing regions.

Simultaneously, global rice prices remain volatile, with buyers closely tracking both Asian and international price movements. Indian rice, known for both its basmati and non-basmati varieties, remains highly competitive; however, policy uncertainty, cost inflation, and adverse weather in North India risk undermining its export momentum. Furthermore, the anticipated revenue surge for APEDA and BEDF due to the fee hike comes at a time when India’s basmati exports have already shown robust growth, with 2.73 million tonnes shipped between April and August 2025. As future regulatory clarity hangs in the balance, market participants are bracing for supply chain disruptions, increased costs, and the potential for policy reversals if industry pushback gains traction.

📈 Rice Prices – Latest at Major Origins

Rice Type	Origin	Location	Incoterm	Price (EUR/t)	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
All Golden, Sella	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.03	1.05	-0.02	Bearish
All Steam, PR11	IN	New Delhi	FOB	0.54	0.56	-0.02	Bearish
All Isteam, Sharbati	IN	New Delhi	FOB	0.69	0.71	-0.02	Bearish
All Steam, 1121 Steam	IN	New Delhi	FOB	0.95	0.97	-0.02	Bearish
All Steam, 1509 Steam	IN	New Delhi	FOB	0.89	0.91	-0.02	Bearish
White Sella, 1121 Creamy	IN	New Delhi	FOB	0.87	0.89	-0.02	Bearish
White, Non Basmati (Organic)	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.59	1.61	-0.02	Bearish
White, Basmati (Organic)	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.89	1.91	-0.02	Bearish
Red	VN	Hanoi	FOB	0.85	0.85	0.00	Stable
Paper Dried	VN	Hanoi	FOB	1.91	1.93	-0.02	Bearish
Long, White, 5%	VN	Hanoi	FOB	0.56	0.58	-0.02	Bearish
Jasmine	VN	Hanoi	FOB	0.58	0.60	-0.02	Bearish
Japonica	VN	Hanoi	FOB	0.68	0.70	-0.02	Bearish
Homali	VN	Hanoi	FOB	0.73	0.75	-0.02	Bearish
White Glutinous	VN	Hanoi	FOB	0.66	0.68	-0.02	Bearish
Calrose	VN	Hanoi	FOB	0.76	0.78	-0.02	Bearish
Black	VN	Hanoi	FOB	1.15	1.17	-0.02	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Export Policy Turmoil: India’s export registration fee hike is causing widespread resistance among basmati exporters, increasing cost pressures amid a highly sensitive global rice supply chain.
• Export Growth: India exported 6.07 million tonnes of basmati rice in FY 2024-25, with strong momentum (2.73 mt) in the April–August 2025 period.
• Industry Division: State-level associations are united in protest, while national bodies and government authorities remain divided. Potential for further policy review is high.
• Flood Fallout: Recent flooding in Punjab (a major basmati-producing state) damaged fields, adding upward pressure to prices and challenging overall supply.
• Vietnam/Thailand Competition: With stable or even slightly lower prices from Vietnam, Asian importers have more choices, slightly dampening demand for Indian origin.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Global Inventories: Global rice stocks remain ample, but regional disruptions (India, Thailand, Vietnam) affect local pricing power and logistics.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money in Asian rice contracts is treading cautiously, waiting for clarity on India’s export rules and South-East Asian crop updates.
• BEDF Funding: Fee revenues projected to exceed $2.8 million for September–March if 3 million tonnes are shipped, raising questions on fund utilization and support for farmers.
• Currency & Freight: Softness in the Indian rupee supports export competitiveness but rising freight costs and insurance premiums (especially for the Middle East and Africa) are offsetting gains.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Production Zones

• North India (Punjab, Haryana, Western UP): Recent monsoon receded with above-average flooding, causing some field losses; recovery is underway but quality concerns persist.
• Vietnam/Thailand: Normal rainfall in the Mekong and Chao Phraya deltas is supporting healthy main-crop development; harvest conditions seen as favorable for Q4 2025.
• Three-Day Weather Outlook: Mostly dry with isolated showers in North India, likely aiding field access and late harvest work. Southeast Asia dry and seasonal.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (mt)	2024/25 Exports (mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mt)
India	129.5	23.5	35.8
Vietnam	43.5	7.2	6.1
Thailand	30.6	8.5	5.9
Pakistan	9.3	4.8	1.2
China	205.0	2.2	84.5

📆 Trading Outlook & Analyst Recommendations

• Short-term: Bearish bias as prices soften in both India and Vietnam due to policy headwinds, competitive pricing, and favorable weather in Southeast Asia.
• Medium-term: Watch for renewed volatility if North Indian crop recovery lags or if fee protests trigger regulatory reversal.
• Sellers: Expedite shipments ahead of possible further rule changes. Hedge via forward contracts if possible.
• Buyers: Secure cover for Q4 2025 but monitor India closely—alternative Southeast Asian origins present good value if Indian trade flow faces disruption.
• Risk Factors: Government actions, weather shocks, and currency swings may all reshape price action into late Q4 and early Q1 2026.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• India (FOB, New Delhi): Prices likely stable to marginally lower as traders digest fee hike; further downside possible if export ban/tariff fears ease.
• Vietnam (FOB, Hanoi): Steady, with modest support from strong regional demand offsetting global bearish tone.
• Thailand: Stable with an upside risk if ASEAN importers seek extra cover ahead of Diwali.