The turmeric market continues to face strong headwinds as a convergence of weak demand, elevated arrivals, and ongoing stockist selling exerts downward pressure on prices. Despite a history of volatility, recent weeks have seen turmeric struggle to recover—underscored by a notable price drop of $159 per ton for finger turmeric in Erode, India. This follows a weekly fall of $120–240 per ton with subdued sentiment persisting. Futures trading also reflects this bearish tone, with NCDEX turmeric contracts declining another 1.91%. Underlying this trend is a market grappling with excessive daily arrivals, reportedly at 4,500 bags, and muted buyer interest. Unless there is a decisive change in demand patterns or a supply squeeze, a significant price rebound appears unlikely in the immediate future. For stakeholders and market participants, staying vigilant to shifts in weather, crop progress, or sudden export upticks is crucial as these could provide a trigger for a reversal.
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Turmeric whole
FOB 2.57 €/kg
(from IN)
Turmeric powder
FOB 3.40 €/kg
(from IN)
Turmeric dried
finger salem,double polished, grade A
FOB 1.62 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Type/Grade | Price (EUR/ton) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric whole (organic) | IN | New Delhi | – | 2,570 | 0 | Neutral/Weak |
| Turmeric powder (organic) | IN | New Delhi | – | 3,400 | 0 | Neutral/Weak |
| Turmeric dried (finger salem, double polished, Grade A) | IN | Telangana | Conventional | 1,620 | 0 | Neutral/Weak |
| Turmeric dried (finger nizamabad, double polished, Grade A) | IN | Telangana | Conventional | 1,520 | 0 | Neutral/Weak |
| Finger Turmeric (Erode) | IN | Erode | Market | 15,725 USD | -159 USD | Bearish |
| NCDEX Futures | IN | Mumbai | – | 14,445 USD | -1.91% | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- Arrivals: Daily inflows around 4,500 bags in major mandis, mainly Erode and Nizamabad, flooding the market.
- Stockists Offloading: Higher sales by stockists ahead of new crop arrivals add to supply excess.
- Demand: Global and domestic demand remain sluggish, with limited buying interest even at lower prices.
- Export: Indian turmeric exports face strong supply competition, with some relief possible from Southeast Asian recovery or unexpected export orders.
📊 Fundamental Drivers
- Production: Record stock holds from last harvest and expected normal crop for 2025, per market sources and the latest COIM/USDA data.
- Inventories: Warehouse stocks are high due to the previous bumper crop and slow market off-take.
- Speculative Activity: Futures remain under selling pressure, adding to overall bearishness.
- Global Balance: Key importing countries (Bangladesh, UAE, USA) show no notable demand spike.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- India (Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra): Monsoon rains have been near average, with no report of adverse weather. Forecast for coming days is for stable temperatures and light scattered showers, supporting healthy crop conditions, but also pointing to continued robust arrivals.
- Short-term weather is not expected to disrupt harvests, arrivals, or quality in the next week.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Snapshot
| Country | 2024 Production (est., 1000 tons) | Stocks (1000 tons) | Export Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1,100 | 100+ | Stable/Soft |
| Bangladesh | 130 | 20 | Rising |
| Myanmar | 55 | 15 | Weak |
| Indonesia | 45 | 10 | Steady |
| China | 40 | 8 | Steady |
📌 Market Drivers Summary
- 🔸 High arrivals and inventory levels are weighing on prices.
- 🔸 Lack of fresh demand, both domestic and export.
- 🔸 Stable weather conditions mean no immediate supply interruption.
- 🔸 Speculators remain net sellers; mood is cautious.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📉 Short-term: Downside risk prevails. Immediate recovery is unlikely with current arrivals and stockist offloading.
- 🔍 Watch for: Export order spikes, abrupt weather events, or reports of quality issues for price support.
- 📦 Stockists: Consider gradual destocking to avoid inventory risk.
- 👨🌾 Producers: Delay large-scale selling if financially viable, but monitor arrival pace closely.
- 💼 Buyers: Shop around for bargains in a soft market, but beware of sudden volatility if weather or exports surprise.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Product | Current Price | Forecast (3 days) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erode (IN) | Finger Turmeric | 15,725 USD/ton | 15,600–15,750 USD/ton | Stable to Slightly Lower |
| NCDEX (Mumbai) | Turmeric Futures | 14,445 USD/ton | 14,300–14,600 USD/ton | Weak |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Turmeric Whole (organic) | 2,570 EUR/ton | 2,530–2,570 EUR/ton | Stable to Lower |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Turmeric Powder (organic) | 3,400 EUR/ton | 3,370–3,400 EUR/ton | Stable |
| Telangana (FOB) | Turmeric Dried | 1,620–1,520 EUR/ton | 1,520–1,620 EUR/ton | Stable |