The cumin market continues to grapple with subdued demand and pressure on prices, extending a trend that has troubled traders despite recent falls. Market sentiment is muted; the average spot price for cumin held steady at $242 per quintal with minimal fluctuations, reflecting a lack of decisive momentum. In local mandis, expectations of arrivals from 6–7 truckloads have maintained a sense of caution among traders. Light activity by Stuckists points to only strategic short-term buying rather than confidence in a price rebound.
Notably, futures contracts edged up slightly by $1.02 to close at $227.53 per quintal, suggesting some speculative interest but falling short of triggering a stronger rally. Export demand remains sluggish, compounded by flat domestic consumption, prompting analysts to forecast continued market softness unless a strong demand-side catalyst emerges.
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📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Specs | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Change | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumin seeds, whole, grade-A, organic | India | New Delhi | 5.14 | 5.14 | 0.00 | 2025-09-26 | |
| Cumin seeds, grade-A, 99% purity | India | New Delhi | Conventional | 2.32 | 2.32 | 0.00 | 2025-09-26 |
| Cumin seeds, grade-A, 98% purity | India | New Delhi | Conventional | 2.17 | 2.17 | 0.00 | 2025-09-26 |
| Cumin seeds, 99% purity | India | New Delhi | Conventional | 2.33 | 2.33 | 0.00 | 2025-09-26 |
| Cumin seeds, 98% purity | India | Gujarat – Unjha | Conventional | 2.32 | 2.32 | 0.00 | 2025-09-26 |
| Cumin powder, grade-A, organic | India | New Delhi | 4.38 | 4.35 | +0.03 | 2025-09-26 | |
| Cumin seeds, 99.9% purity | Egypt | Cairo | Conventional | 4.77 | 4.80 | -0.03 | 2025-09-26 |
| Cumin seeds, black, grade-A | Egypt | Cairo | Conventional | 2.16 | 2.20 | -0.04 | 2025-09-26 |
| Cumin powder | Syria | Dordrecht (NL) | 4.70 | 4.70 | 0.00 | 2025-09-26 | |
| Cumin seed | Syria | Dordrecht (NL) | 3.70 | 3.75 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Local arrivals: 6–7 truckloads expected in Indian mandis, signaling steady availability.
- Stockist activity: Light, reflecting cautious optimism without aggressive accumulation.
- Export demand: Remains weak; international buyers are holding back, citing high prices earlier in the season and expectation of further downside.
- Domestic demand: Flat, with processors and spice manufacturers buying only as needed.
📊 Fundamental Market Data
- Average spot price: $242/quintal (unchanged, week on week)
- Futures price: $227.53/quintal (+$1.02, signaling marginal speculative uptick)
- Speculator interest: Mild, prompted by bottom-fishing at current price levels
- Stock situation: Aminor replenishment at local storage owing to harvest arrivals
⛅ Weather Outlook
- India (Gujarat/Rajasthan): Current reports indicate normal pre-harvest monsoon conditions with adequate soil moisture. Weather over the next week is expected to stay favorable, reducing supply risk near-term.
- Egypt: Stable climatic conditions with no weather alerts impacting cumin during harvest and post-harvest drying phases.
- Forecast impact: No immediate weather threats to cumin crops—continued steady supply outlook.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Output (‘000 MT) | Export Share | Inventory (est.) (‘000 MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | >550 | ~75% | Moderate, replenishing post-harvest |
| Egypt | ~35 | Key exporter to EU/MENA | Stable stocks |
| Syria/Turkey | ~40 | Seasonal exporters | Low-to-moderate |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Prices are likely to remain soft in the near term, with risk tilted to the downside if arrival pace accelerates.
- Bargain hunting at spot and near-term futures possible for importers seeking to lock in costs for late-2024 contracts.
- Exporters should refrain from aggressive offers until clear sign of return in international buying activity.
- Monitor developments in India’s mandi arrivals and weather patterns—rapid increases in arrivals could pressure prices further.
- Watch for triggers in bulk buying from large spice processors/exporters as a potential bottoming sign.
⏳ 3-Day Price Forecast (Major Markets)
| Market | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (IN, Grade-A 99%) | 2.32 | 2.30 – 2.33 | Weak/Stable |
| Unjha (IN, Grade-A 98%) | 2.32 | 2.30 – 2.32 | Weak |
| Cairo (EG, 99.9%) | 4.77 | 4.75 – 4.80 | Slightly Soft |
