The Indian chilli market is staring at a period of heightened uncertainty as unseasonal, persistent rains batter major producing regions, especially Gujarat’s Saurashtra (notably Junagadh and Mahuva), Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. The immediate impacts are visible: farmers report severe difficulties harvesting, daily arrivals in Junagadh have plunged to just 50,000–60,000 kg, and produce quality has deteriorated with increased moisture and signs of pest infestation. With the harvesting season now projected to be delayed by 5–15 days, the supply pipeline remains constrained, boosting the prospect for continued price firmness in the short term.
Farmers across major belts echo concerns about virus infections and weather-damaged plants, raising the specter of reduced yields and lower profitability this season. In wholesale markets like Guntur, prices have reached $2,050–$2,150 per metric ton, and Gujarat’s markets are seeing averages between $1.95–$2.10 per kg. Market specialists anticipate ongoing volatility: while a return to normal weather could stabilize prices in a few weeks, persistent rains may push prices up another 5–8%. All eyes are on the next two weeks, as the weather’s next move could prove pivotal for both traders and growers.
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Chilli dried whole
bird eye, grade a
FOB 4.67 €/kg
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powder, grade a
FOB 4.42 €/kg
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Chilli dried
flakes, grade a
FOB 4.38 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Price Table: Latest Chilli Market Prices
| Product | Type/Grade | Origin | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole | Bird eye, grade A, organic | IN | New Delhi | 4.65 | 4.65 | 2025-09-26 | Firm |
| Chilli dried powder | Grade A, organic | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 4.40 | 4.40 | 2025-09-26 | Firm |
| Chilli dried flakes | Grade A, organic | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 4.36 | 4.36 | 2025-09-26 | Firm |
| Chilli dried with stem | – | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2025-09-26 | Firm |
| Chilli dried whole, stemless | Grade A | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 2.19 | 2.19 | 2025-09-26 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand Factors
- Supply Disruptions: Junagadh arrivals down to 50,000–60,000 kg/day due to harvesting delays in Saurashtra. Similar weather stress in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka extends impact nationwide.
- Quality Concerns: Higher soil moisture and prolonged cloud cover have sparked increased reports of pests, viral infections, and plant damage.
- Demand Side: Wholesale trade remains active, but buyers report caution on lower grades, further favoring better-quality lots and keeping premiums firm for top grades.
- Market Sentiment: Firm to bullish in the near term. Buyers and processors expect continued tightness unless normal arrivals resume soon.
📊 Market Drivers & Fundamentals
- Weather Impact: Persistent unseasonal rains disrupt harvest and quality. Rain-induced viral and pest outbreaks pose growing risk to standing crops.
- Production Outlook: Major belts (Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka) all report stress. Harvest could be delayed by 5–15 days; acreage is unchanged but productivity is under threat.
- Stocks: Stockists and traders hold limited reserves due to rapid market turnover and recent strong exports. Lower pipeline inventories heighten price sensitivity to arrivals.
- Speculative Interest: Higher near-term volatility as traders build inventories ahead of potential supply tightness.
☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Short-term forecast (next 3 days) for Saurashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka: Intermittent showers expected to persist, with high humidity and lingering cloudiness.
- This increases risk of further quality deterioration and pest pressure if not followed by clear, dry spells.
- Farmers in affected zones remain on alert for more viral and fungal outbreaks. Timely return to normal weather would be critical for salvaging yields.
🌎 Global Chilli Market Context
- India’s Role: India remains the world’s leading chilli producer and exporter, with Saurashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka as the main hubs.
- Export Demand: International demand continues steady, especially for premium grades—supporting firm FOB prices despite local harvest woes.
- Competitive Landscape: Other global producers (China, Vietnam, Ethiopia) are monitoring India’s situation closely, as shortfalls here could open export opportunities elsewhere.
📌 Trading Outlook & Advice
- Buyers: Consider locking in contracts for premium/organic grades early—expected tightness in arrivals will keep prices firm for top lots.
- Traders: Maintain flexible inventory strategies; monitor local arrivals and disease outbreaks. Watch for price spikes if adverse weather persists another week.
- Processors: Consider building working stocks, prioritizing higher grades, to safeguard against supply gaps and further price escalation.
- Exporters: Stay alert to international inquiries as FOB quotes remain steady—potential for higher demand from regions seeking to diversify supply chains if India’s production falls.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Market | Current Price (USD/MT) | Expected Trend | 3-Day Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guntur (AP) | 2,050–2,150 | Firm/Bullish | +2–4% |
| Gujarat Wholesale | 1.95–2.10 (USD/kg) | Firm/Bullish | +3–5% |
| FOB (Grade A, Organic) | 4.65 (EUR/kg) | Steady/Firm | +3–5% |
