The chickpeas market is showing clear signs of stabilization following a period of price weakness attributed to tepid demand from pulse mills and sporadic spot buying. In late September, prices for desi chana in India dropped below ₹5,625 per quintal ($675/MT), stoking concerns of further declines amid steady arrivals. However, a shift in sentiment has materialized, with current wholesale prices firming to around ₹5,850 per quintal ($700/MT). This recovery is attributed to reduced farmer selling — as producers resist lower prices — and an uptick in pre-festive season demand across key markets.
Most market participants now believe the market’s downside is limited for the near term; fundamentals such as supply management and cyclical buying patterns are lending support. Traders expect the firm tone to hold, with upside risk if demand continues apace and supply remains restrained. The outlook suggests the market has likely bottomed, and a gradual bullish trend is anticipated as we move into the peak consumption phase. International pricing in major exporting countries remains steady, while global weather patterns and harvest prospects will be decisive in shaping the next pricing leg. Most analysts favor a bullish tilt for chickpeas heading through Q4 2024.
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Chickpeas dried
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Chickpeas dried
count 60-62, 8 mm
FOB 1.17 €/kg
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📈 Prices: Domestic & International Overview
| Origin | Type | Count | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Location | Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Chickpeas dried | 44-46, 11 mm | 1.26 | 0.00 | New Delhi | 2025-09-26 |
| India | Chickpeas dried | 42-44, 12 mm | 1.25 | 0.00 | New Delhi | 2025-09-26 |
| India | Chickpeas dried | 58-60, 9 mm | 1.20 | 0.00 | New Delhi | 2025-09-26 |
| India | Chickpeas dried | 46-48, 10 mm | 1.24 | 0.00 | New Delhi | 2025-09-26 |
| India | Chickpeas dried | 60-62, 8 mm | 1.19 | 0.00 | New Delhi | 2025-09-26 |
| Mexico | Chickpeas dried | 75-80, 8 mm | 1.12 | 0.00 | Mexico City | 2025-09-26 |
| Mexico | Chickpeas dried | 42-44, 12 mm | 1.64 | 0.00 | Mexico City | 2025-09-26 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- India: Reduced farmer offloading is limiting supply at current price levels, while steady arrivals prevent sharp upward spikes.
- Festive Demand: The lead-up to major festivals typically triggers heightened demand, supporting prices throughout Q4.
- Pulse Mill Consumption: The tepid mill buying seen in September is showing signs of reversal, especially as spot buyers step in to avoid higher replacing costs later.
- Global Exporters: Export pricing from Mexico (steady, no change in EUR or USD terms) and other origins suggest a globally balanced supply-demand scenario, but no aggressive downside.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Inventories: Stock positions in India remain manageable, with no major overhangs expected through the festive season.
- Acreage: Latest Rabi crop sowing reports indicate stable-to-slightly-increasing chickpea acreage; however, output growth will depend on late monsoon rains and temperature trends.
- Speculative Positioning: Market participants are building long positions, encouraged by firm spot and futures sentiment across major Indian exchanges.
- Policy Environment: No major policy shifts from Indian or Mexican authorities reported in the last month; export availability and domestic market protection remain the focus.
☁️ Weather Outlook
- India (Central/North): Forecasts indicate normal to above normal temperatures with sporadic post-monsoon rainfall in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. This supports sowing activities and early crop establishment but may challenge harvest quality if rains persist too long.
- Mexico: Recent weather is favorable for chickpea planting, supporting a steady outlook for late 2024 exports.
- Outlook: No major weather threats on the horizon. Monitor regional rainfall in October for surprises.
🌐 Global Compare: Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024 Estimated Production (MT) | Key Comments |
|---|---|---|
| India | 11.5 million | By far the world’s largest producer and consumer. Stocks stable, but tight management limits risk of surplus. |
| Mexico | 250,000 | Major export origin, no significant production shocks reported. |
| Australia | 1.0 million | Dry spell risk, but conditions have improved according to latest rainfall updates. |
| Turkey | 600,000 | Stable production outlook. Little export impact expected in Q4. |
🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish bias warranted: Accumulate on dips, expect slow but steady price gains in spot and near-term contracts.
- End-users/traders: Advance purchases ahead of further festive demand spikes recommended. Inventory risk is low.
- Watch: Weather evolution in key Indian states (October rains) and new crop arrivals in Mexico for clarity on late Q4 supplies.
- Speculators: Long strategies favored; monitor for any abrupt policy announcements or large farmer selling waves.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (New Delhi/Mexico City)
| Region | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi | 1.19 – 1.26 | 1.20 – 1.28 | Bullish/Stable |
| Mexico City | 1.12 – 1.64 | 1.12 – 1.65 | Stable |
Chickpea prices globally are steady to firm; market participants should act on any short-term dips and remain alert to regional weather and demand shifts in the coming days.
