The global almonds market is currently experiencing notable weakness, with prices slipping and trade sentiment in a cautious lull. In key Asian trading regions, Californian almond prices have dipped to $8.95 per kg (from $9.05/kg), signaling a broader softness across major hubs. The latest European spot prices reflect a similar trend, with standard U.S. Carmel SSR 18/20 kernels now at €6.72/kg, down from €6.77/kg, and Spanish Marcona varieties also under mild pressure.
Fresh crop arrivals, lackluster demand from both retailers and traders, and anticipation of further price easing have contributed to a risk-off mode among market participants. While festive seasons may offer brief demand increases, the underlying tone remains subdued due to ample supply and tepid consumption growth. Forward-looking analysts project that without a pronounced supply disruption or unexpected demand surge, prices are likely to hover near current levels in the short term. A watchful eye on U.S. weather—critical for the coming harvest—and global trade policy trends remains essential, given the U.S.’s dominance in world almond exports.
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Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr, 18/20
FAS 6.72 €/kg
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Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr 20/22
FAS 6.68 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr
FOB 9.32 €/kg
(from US)
📈 Prices: Latest Almond Market Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Update Date | Offer Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmel SSR 18/20 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.72 | 6.77 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 | Offer |
| Carmel SSR 20/22 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.68 | 6.73 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 | Offer |
| Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic) | US | Washington D.C. | FOB | 9.32 | 9.37 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 | Offer |
| Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic) | ES | Madrid | FOB | 11.60 | 11.65 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 | Offer |
| Marcona 12/14 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 6.65 | 6.70 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 | Offer |
| Marcona S/16 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 8.90 | 8.95 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 | Offer |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Demand Side: Weak buying interest is pressuring prices, particularly in the Indian and Asian markets. Buyers and traders are not stocking up, anticipating further declines.
- Supply Side: Fresh crop arrivals from both California and Spain, two major global producers, are increasing supply. U.S. supplies are strong, but ongoing harvest logistics and short-term shipping constraints may intermittently impact inventories.
- Trade Trends: Global almond trade remains robust, but sentiment is cautious. The U.S. continues to dominate global exports; Spain remains key in EU markets.
📊 Fundamental Drivers
- USDA and Industry Reports: Recent USDA estimates point to a stable-to-larger U.S. almond crop for 2024/2025, underscoring ample supplies for export markets.
- Consumer Trends: Retail and wholesale buyers remain conservative, watching for further price softening before restocking ahead of upcoming holidays.
- Speculation and Sentiment: Weakness in speculative buying and tepid consumer demand is keeping the market subdued.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- California’s Central Valley, primary almond region, has reported near-average recent temperatures and soil moisture. Early autumn rains have been lighter than usual but not yet threatening crop quality.
- Spain’s main almond regions are experiencing mild and dry weather, supporting harvest completion without notable quality losses. No major frost or disease events reported.
Weather risk remains low for the near-term, supporting ongoing harvest and pressing supply into the market.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Production (t) | 2024/25 Est. Ending Stocks (t) |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 1,350,000 | 170,000 |
| Spain | 360,000 | 95,000 |
| Australia | 140,000 | 24,000 |
| India (imports) |
N/A | Large importer |
📆 Trading Outlook & Market Recommendations
- 📉 Short-term bias remains bearish. Avoid new long positions unless evidence of a strong demand recovery emerges for the holiday period.
- 🛑 Stock up cautiously. If you are a retailer or processor, take only essential cover near-term as prices may fall further.
- 🕒 Monitor U.S. logistics and ocean freight rates which could bring brief supply tightness but not change the overarching price direction.
- 🔎 Watch for spot opportunities in secondary origins (Spain/Australia) should U.S. shipping delays arise.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU (US Origin SSR kernels) | 6.72 | 6.65 – 6.75 | Bearish / Stable |
| EU (Spain Origin Marcona) | 6.65 | 6.60 – 6.68 | Bearish |
| EU (Organic US Nonpareil) | 9.32 | 9.28 – 9.36 | Neutral / Bearish |
| Asia (Delhi – Californian Almonds, USD/kg) | 8.95* (USD) | 8.85 – 9.00 (USD) | Bearish |
