Lentil Market Holds Steady Amid Balanced Fundamentals and Comfortable Supply

The global lentil market continues to display remarkable stability, with prices holding firm across both domestic and international arenas. Despite subdued retail demand over the past week, wholesale lentil (masoor) prices in key trading hubs such as New Delhi are quoted in a narrow band between USD 79.50 and USD 79.70 per 100 kg. The brief correction of approximately USD 0.50 per 100 kg observed earlier has already been absorbed by the market, and volatility has diminished as a result.

Both Canadian and Chinese suppliers are reporting similar trends, with prices for leading varieties like Red Football, Laird Green, and Eston Green lentils in Canada trading flat, and minor easing observed in Chinese small green lentils. Traders and analysts concur that the current equilibrium is likely to persist, attributing this to balanced demand and satisfactory inventory levels in major production and distribution centers. Weather patterns in critical Canadian growing regions remain largely favorable, further underpinning a positive outlook for supply stability and mitigating the risk of unexpected price spikes in the near term. Against this backdrop, the lentil market is expected to remain calm and range-bound, providing some certainty for buyers, sellers, and industry stakeholders who have been cautious in recent quarters due to global inflation and supply chain disruptions.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Market	Product/Type	Country/City	Price (EUR/mt)	Change (vs. prev.)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Ottawa (FOB)	Red Football	CA/Ottawa	2.50	0.00	2025-10-03	Stable
Ottawa (FOB)	Laird Green	CA/Ottawa	1.68	0.00	2025-10-03	Stable
Ottawa (FOB)	Eston Green	CA/Ottawa	1.55	0.00	2025-10-03	Stable
Beijing (FOB)	Small Green, Organic	CN/Beijing	1.27	-0.03	2025-10-02	Weak
Beijing (FOB)	Small Green, Conv.	CN/Beijing	1.19	-0.03	2025-10-02	Weak
New Delhi	Masoor (Lentil)	IN/New Delhi	~727 (EUR) / 100kg	0.00	2025-10-05	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Domestic and international supply conditions remain comfortable, with no immediate shortage risks.
• Wholesale and importers’ inventories appear more than adequate, contributing to low volatility and stabilized prices.
• Retail demand continues to be sluggish but is met comfortably by existing inventory.
• India, Canada, and China remain the primary supply and consumption hubs; flows between these regions are smooth and unimpeded by major logistical or trade issues for now.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA and major government crop surveys project stable lentil acreage and production in the 2024/25 cycle in Canada and India.
• No major currency shocks or price-supporting policy interventions have been announced recently.
• Global stocks remain ample, with Canadian and Indian government agencies reporting near-average post-harvest inventories.
• Speculative positioning is neutral as large traders step back due to lack of volatility.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Effects

• Canada’s Prairies (key for green & red lentils) are experiencing average precipitation and seasonal temperatures, supporting steady yield prospects.
• Indian lentil belts (Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar) face normal monsoon patterns with no significant crop stress expected this month.
• China’s producing regions reporting average-to-below-average rainfall, little risk of adverse effects for fall-harvested lentils.
• The weather outlook suggests little threat to remaining 2025 production, keeping supply stable.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Prod. (Est. Mt)	2024/25 End. Stocks (Est. Mt)	Comment
Canada	2.25	0.40	Steady output, robust export pace
India	1.60	0.15	Key consumer, stable local supply
China	0.30	0.08	Minor fluctuations, ample stocks
Australia	0.19	0.02	Stable, export-focused

📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For exporters: Use current price stability for structured forward sales; ample stocks should allow for gradual marketing.
• For importers/processors: Good window for inventory accumulation with minimal near-term risk.
• For speculative traders: Sideways trade likely; limit exposure as volatility remains low and fundamentals are steady.
• For end-users (food, retail): Secure volumes through current contracts; no need to rush given comfortable supply outlook.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current (EUR/mt)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Trend
Ottawa (Red Football)	2.50	2.50	2.50	2.50	Stable
Ottawa (Laird Green)	1.68	1.68	1.68	1.68	Stable
Ottawa (Eston Green)	1.55	1.55	1.55	1.55	Stable
Beijing (Small Green, Organic)	1.27	1.27	1.27	1.27	Stable
New Delhi (Masoor)	~727 (€)/100kg	~727	~727	~727	Stable