Sesame Seeds Market: Late Monsoon Fails to Lift Output, Export Optimism Holds Prices Steady

The sesame market finds itself at a critical crossroads as 2025’s kharif season begins to wrap up in India, the world’s primary producer and exporter of sesame seeds. This year, the much-anticipated late monsoon rains in Gujarat arrived too late to revive already mature sesame crops, with harvests nearly complete in Saurashtra and North Gujarat. Agricultural experts and traders alike report that the rainfall failed to boost yields or quality, resulting in output lower than initial expectations. Despite higher sowing across 140,000 hectares in Gujarat, unseasonal showers during the flowering stage earlier in the cycle triggered pest and disease issues, ultimately restricting yields and, in some regions, impacting seed quality due to excess humidity at harvest.

The market, however, continues to exhibit resilience. While arrivals of new-crop sesame have weighed modestly on local market prices, robust international demand from China, South Korea, and Middle Eastern buyers has kept price declines in check and maintained optimism among exporters. Processing units in Gujarat and Rajasthan anticipate relatively stable margins, buoyed by steady overseas inquiries. As the market weighs limited exportable surplus against strong global demand, a supportive outlook persists for both prices and farmer returns. The late monsoon, while unhelpful for this crop, has refreshed soil moisture—potentially setting up a better start for the rabi season ahead.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date
Sesame seeds, hulled	India	99.90%	No	New Delhi	FOB	1.96	1.96	2025-10-03
Sesame seeds, hulled, EU-Grade	India	99.98%	No	New Delhi	FOB	2.06	2.06	2025-10-03
Sesame seeds, hulled, EU-Grade	India	99.97%	No	New Delhi	FOB	2.03	2.03	2025-10-03

Wholesale market prices in India currently hover between USD 1,100–1,300 per tonne (approx. EUR 1.04–1.24/kg), subject to seed quality, aligning closely with export offer prices.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Sowing in Gujarat at 140,000 hectares, with average yields 1–1.5 tonnes per 10 hectares due to late and unhelpful rains.
• Production Issues: Pest & disease losses from untimely rainfall during flowering; post-harvest seed quality affected by high humidity.
• Demand: International demand steady—especially from China, South Korea, and Middle East, sustaining export sentiment despite yield challenges.
• Processing & Margins: Local processors expect stable margins due to continued overseas enquiries; however, absolute exportable surplus may fall short of early estimates.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Yield/Quality: Unseasonal rain missed the growth window—offering minimal improvement in yields, but the main harvest was already set.
• Market Arrivals: As harvest peaks, arrivals weigh slightly on spot prices, but firmness in export markets helps cap downside.
• Speculation: Limited, as fundamentals—particularly the export window—are in focus.
• Global Context: African origins face dryness in some producing belts, while Myanmar saw reduced harvests, putting a firmer undertone under global pricing.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Current: Late monsoon rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan came post-maturity; little to no benefit for sesame 2025 but improved soil moisture for rabi season pulses and oilseeds.
• Forecast Next 3 Days: Dry weather expected across key sesame belts, supporting ongoing harvest & minimizing post-maturity quality risks. No further material rain forecast.
• Other Regions: Ethiopia & Sudan expected dry, supporting stable harvest activity; Myanmar with slight rainfall may help late crops, but overall global supply remains tight.

📦 Production & Stocks – Global Snapshot

Country	2025 Prod. (est, 000 t)	2024 Prod. (000 t)	Carry Stocks (000 t)	Notes
India	730	770	160	Lower yields, quality issues
Nigeria	470	500	100	Minor weather impact
Sudan	295	310	95	Stable output
Myanmar	145	180	35	Reduced acreage
China	108	110	25	Minor changes
Other	900	930	—

(Estimates: trade sources & USDA reports)

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Spot prices may stay soft in the very near term as harvest arrivals peak, then see renewed strength as exportable surplus proves limited.
• Exporters urged to cover forward contracts for premium grades, as tightness looms in global markets.
• Buyers in China, Korea, and the Middle East remain active—continuing to anchor Indian prices.
• Procurement of high-purity and organic sesame may face additional premiums due to reduced volumes and quality uncertainty.
• Watch for updated government crop estimates and trade policy cues—potential for reallocation of quotas or export incentives.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current (EUR/kg)	Outlook Next 3 Days	Sentiment
India, New Delhi FOB (hulled 99.9%)	1.96	1.93–1.97	Stable/slightly soft
India, New Delhi FOB (EU-Grade 99.98%)	2.06	2.03–2.08	Firm
India, Local market (wholesale)	~1.04–1.24	~1.03–1.23	Stable to firm
Nigeria, FOB Lagos	1.70–1.90*	1.70–1.95*	Stable

*Indicative values – updated as African offers emerge.