The global almonds market is entering a period of renewed firmness, following a year of adjustment in both supply and prices. Recent updates from major producing regions point to slightly lower-than-expected output, while inventories have trended downward. California’s projected 2025 crop was revised from 3 billion to around 2.8 billion pounds, lending support to a market that has been digesting several years of record production and price volatility. Meanwhile, Australia’s Select Harvests Limited has processed 24,700 tonnes of almonds, just beneath its forecast midpoint, citing normal seasonal variation and localized weather effects.
Despite initial price softness after the July 2025 USDA crop estimate, revised forecasts and official industry position reports show a reduction in both carry-in stock and current crop receipts, contributing to firmer prices. Global almond prices now hover at 1.5% below mid-year company forecasts, but remain underpinned by tightening supply and structural market shifts such as reduced plantings, increased orchard removals, and persistent water constraints, especially in California. At the same time, almond consumption in Asia and Europe continues to rise, further tightening the supply-demand balance and supporting a positive price outlook for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.
Australia’s 2026 bloom concluded with strong orchard conditions and no reports of frost damage, providing optimism for next season yields as global markets watch for further weather and logistical developments. Overall, industry sentiment has shifted toward cautious optimism, with prices expected to remain firm barring significant supply shocks.
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Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr, 18/20
FAS 6.72 €/kg
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Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr 20/22
FAS 6.68 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr
FOB 9.32 €/kg
(from US)
📈 Prices: Key Almond Market Quotes
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Current Price (€/kg) | Previous Price (€/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds kernels, carmel, ssr, 18/20 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.72 | 6.72 | 2025-10-03 | Stable/Firm |
| Almonds kernels, carmel, ssr 20/22 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.68 | 6.68 | 2025-10-03 | Stable/Firm |
| Almonds kernels, natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr (Organic) | US | Washington D.C. | FOB | 9.32 | 9.32 | 2025-10-03 | Stable |
| Almond kernels, marcona, 12/14 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 6.65 | 6.65 | 2025-10-03 | Stable/Firm |
| Almond kernels, marcona, 14/16 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 8.25 | 8.25 | 2025-10-03 | Firm |
| Almond kernels, marcona, S/16 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 8.9 | 8.9 | 2025-10-03 | Firm |
| Almond kernels, valencia, 10/12 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 5.65 | 5.65 | 2025-10-03 | Stable |
| Almond kernels, valencia, 12/14 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2025-10-03 | Stable |
| Almond kernels, valencia + 14 mm | ES | Madrid | FOB | 5.95 | 5.95 | 2025-10-03 | Stable/Firm |
| Almond kernels, guara bajo, 12 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 5.68 | 5.68 | 2025-10-03 | Stable |
| Almond kernels, guara, 12/14 MMS | ES | Madrid | FOB | 5.95 | 5.95 | 2025-10-03 | Stable/Firm |
| Almond kernels, Guara, S/14 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 6.15 | 6.15 | 2025-10-03 | Stable |
| Almond kernels, natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr (Organic) | ES | Madrid | FOB | 11.6 | 11.6 | 2025-10-03 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand Landscape
- Australia: 2025 almond crop at 24,700 tonnes (Select Harvests). Processing completed; lower than forecast midpoint due to regional weather. All in-shell almonds sold, some kernels still pending.
- California: Initial USDA projection July 2025: 3-bln lbs; now revised closer to 2.8-bln lbs. Carry-in stocks at 483 million lbs (down from 502 mln in 2024). Crop receipts at 259 mln lbs vs. 290 mln lbs prior year. Lower-than-expected supply is helping underpin prices.
- Production Trends: Structural changes: reduced new plantings, orchard removals increasing, water access challenges. (Especially relevant in California.)
- Demand: Continued growth in Asia and Europe, absorbing much of any surplus and driving price resilience.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Stock Changes: Carry-in stocks and receipts both down year-on-year in California and Australia.
- Pricing: Current crop pricing US$6.55–6.60/kg on average (1.5% below mid-year forecast). Stable-to-firmer in Europe and the US.
- Input Costs: Production costs flat year-on-year (Select Harvests).
- Financial Health: Major processor Select Harvests significantly reduced net debt and improved gearing to 15% (a 50% YoY improvement).
- Market Direction: Most analysts forecast a supply-driven market through mid-2026; price firmness anticipated barring weather or policy shocks.
📆 Weather & Crop Outlook
- Australia: 2026 bloom reported as strong overall. Occurred 7-10 days later and in a tighter window, improving pollination. No frost damage to date; fertilisation programs expanded. New South Wales slightly delayed due to residual moisture, with top performance at Mountview and Belvedere orchards.
- California: Seasonal conditions have been variable, with lingering drought concerns in some regions. Weather remains a key risk through late October as frost risk persists.
Impact: Strong bloom and healthy trees in Australia boost optimism for 2026 yields, while California’s risk profile remains elevated as water and frost threats continue.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
- US (California): 2025 crop now expected at approximately 2.8 billion lbs, trending below July’s 3-bln projection.
- Australia: 24,700 tonnes processed for 2025 (Select Harvests); robust bloom for 2026 expected to support future supply.
- Spain & EU: EU demand remains solid; prices in Spain (Madrid) for Marcona and Guara types indicate firm market fundamentals.
- Stocks: Lower carry-in stocks and receipts globally, with US and Australia showing visible contraction YoY.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📈 Buyers: Consider covering forward needs as prices show signs of stabilisation and potential upward pressure into 2026 due to sustained tight supply.
- 🔄 Traders: Maintain moderate-long positions, especially in premium varieties; watch for further USDA and Almond Board updates.
- 🛑 Sellers/Producers: Hold back on aggressive sales where storage allows; upside potential remains present amid tightening supply and robust Asia/Europe demand.
- ☀️ Monitor: Weather conditions in California and Australia (frost/water risk); global logistics disruption remains a background risk.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Current Price (€/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington D.C. (US, Carmels SSR 18/20) | 6.72 | 6.70–6.75 | Stable/Firm |
| Madrid (Spain, Marcona 12/14) | 6.65 | 6.65–6.70 | Stable/Firm |
| Madrid (Spain, Guara S/14) | 6.15 | 6.15–6.20 | Stable |
