The global cashew market is experiencing a period of notable stability, with prices showing little movement over the past week and expectations of continued steadiness in the near term. The primary factors underpinning this calm are balanced demand, steady supply chains, and weak export inquiries—especially from major importing regions. Processors are adopting a cautious buying approach, and festive-driven surges in consumption are notably absent. Amid these subdued dynamics, traders report no immediate catalysts for significant upward or downward price shifts.
Weather in key producing areas has been neutral, further supporting steady market conditions. The outlook for the next five to seven days suggests a prolonged phase of price equilibrium, with no major shifts in physical or speculative activity. While underlying fundamentals remain supportive, buyers and sellers are likely to see continued muted action unless unexpected events disrupt the current balance. In summary, the cashew market appears set for a stable week ahead, offering time for industry participants to recalibrate strategies for potential changes in the medium term.
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Cashew kernels
W450
FOB 6.23 €/kg
(from IN)
Cashew kernels
W320
FOB 8.59 €/kg
(from IN)
Cashew kernels
W320
FOB 6.88 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Price Snapshot
| Product Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W450 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 6.23 | 6.23 | 2025-10-03 | Steady |
| W320 (Organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 8.59 | 8.59 | 2025-10-03 | Steady |
| W320 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 6.88 | 6.88 | 2025-10-03 | Steady |
| WW320 | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.8 | 6.8 | 2025-10-03 | Steady |
| WW320 (FCA) | NL | Dordrecht | FCA | 5.05 | 5.1 | 2025-10-03 | Slightly Weaker |
🌍 Supply & Demand Balance
- Supply: Flows have remained consistent in key origin markets such as India and Vietnam. The absence of weather disruptions ensures continued steady arrivals.
- Demand: Export inquiries remain weak, mainly due to cautious buying by processors and lackluster orders ahead of holiday seasons in Europe and the US.
- Trade Activity: Spot and forward trading are subdued, reflecting the lack of speculative participation or urgent physical buying.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- USDA and major market reports indicate stable global stock levels with no significant drawdowns or surpluses anticipated.
- Processors continue to exercise caution due to prevailing export weakness, especially from Europe and North America.
- No significant speculative positions are influencing price action; volatility at major exchanges remains low for nut commodities.
⛅ Weather Outlook for Key Regions
- India: Mild, dry conditions expected in Maharashtra, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh. No major risk of rain or storms in the forecast, supporting smooth post-harvest logistics.
- Vietnam: Moderate weather with no significant rainfall predicted for main growing areas. Export shipments are likely to proceed smoothly.
- West Africa: Early signs suggest a neutral start to the off-season, with no weather alarms threatening the next crop.
Analysis: Continued favorable weather supports a steady flow of raw cashew nuts and stable processing operations.
🌐 Production & Stocks Overview
| Country | 2024/25 Production (Est., MT) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (MT) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 820,000 | 125,000 | Stable |
| Vietnam | 492,000 | 90,000 | Stable |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 970,000 | 110,000 | Stable |
| Brazil | 110,000 | 20,000 | Stable |
📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📌 For Processors: Maintain existing procurement strategy. No urgency to accelerate purchases unless supply disruptions arise.
- 📌 For Traders: Hold current positions, monitor export demand closely. Consider opportunistic buying if unexpected price dips occur.
- 📌 For Importers: Take advantage of steady prices for forward contracts, especially for the W320 and WW320 grades.
- 📌 For Speculators: Avoid directional bets in a quiet market; look for signals of demand revival or supply-side interruptions for future trades.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Region | Current (EUR/kg) | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W320 | IN, New Delhi (FOB) | 6.88 | 6.88 | 6.88 | 6.88 |
| WW320 | VN, Hanoi (FOB) | 6.80 | 6.80 | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| WW320 | NL, Dordrecht (FCA) | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.05 |
With current stability set to persist, near-term price action is expected to remain muted, providing an opportunity for the market to recalibrate for the months ahead.
