Bean Market Stays Buoyant Amid Supply Pressure and Festive Demand

The bean market is currently experiencing a notable upswing, fuelled by tightening supply and robust trade activity. Over the past week, the Chitra-China variety has seen a late but significant price increase, as delayed arrivals from Pune and lower domestic stocks tightened the market. Prices have firmed from around $131.00 to $131.30 per quintal, with premium-grade Indian beans quoted at $1.27–$1.29/kg and Chinese imports slightly below these levels. This price surge reflects not just seasonal demand during ongoing festive seasons across Asia, but also the ripple effects of staggered harvests and logistical delays. Traders report that the prevailing tone remains firm, with active buying interest and little sign of inventory relief in the immediate future.

Market sentiment anticipates continued firmness, especially if new crop arrivals remain delayed. Current premium prices and the gap between Indian and Chinese varieties suggest underlying supply tightness, a trend likely to persist in the near term given projected weather patterns and ongoing market activity. Participants should prepare for elevated prices in the coming days, as steady domestic demand and cautious trader strategies support the market’s bullish undertone.

📈 Prices & Market Overview

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment
Kidney beans	dark red	BR	Brasília	1.41	1.42	-0.7	Neutral/Steady
Kidney beans	brown eye	BR	Brasília	1.35	1.36	-0.7	Neutral/Steady
Kidney beans	white (99%)	GB	London	1.34	1.35	-0.7	Neutral/Steady
Mung beans	organic	CN	Beijing	1.57	1.58	-0.6	Steady
Kidney beans	small, black, organic	CN	Beijing	1.32	1.27	+3.9	Bullish
Kidney beans	Large, white, organic	CN	Beijing	3.30	3.28	+0.6	Bullish

Premium-grade beans (India): $1.27–$1.29 per kg
Imported Chinese beans: Slightly lower

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Supply: Delayed harvests in India (notably in Pune) causing late arrivals; lower stocks in major consumption centers. Imported beans, especially from China, help bridge the gap but are also subject to logistical lags.
• Demand: Steady-to-strong, driven by festive consumption and industrial users restocking at current rates.
• Stocks: Market anecdotes indicate thin pipelines in wholesale and retail sectors; traders anticipate tighter short-term inventories if new crop inflows are further delayed.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA and Crop Reports: Recent updates point to lower-than-expected output in some Indian regions due to late monsoon and patchy rainfall.
• Speculative Positioning: Higher market activity on the buy-side as traders hedge against further delays and price escalation.
• Trade Flow: Small price premium for Indian Chitra beans over their Chinese counterparts reflects market confidence in quality and ongoing supply constraint.
• Global Production:
  • Brazil: Production steady, but export pace waning due to competitive pricing pressures.
  • China: Moderate output with improved quality, but logistical hurdles impact timely arrivals, especially in India and Southeast Asia.
  • UK: Niche supply mostly meeting localized demand, with stable-to-soft pricing.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India (Pune/Maharashtra): Intermittent late monsoon showers—Forecast: Mild, scattered rainfall next 3 days, risk of minor delays in remaining fieldwork.
• Brazil: Mild, mostly dry, non-disruptive to shipments.
• China: Cool and dry in bean belt; favorable for harvest completion.

Impact: Rain in Indian growing regions risks further delaying harvesting and arrivals, possibly keeping prices firm or lifting them in the very short term.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/2025 Output (est. in ‘000 MT)	Stocks (‘000 MT)	Market Status
India	6,200	720	Tight, arrivals delayed
Brazil	3,950	500	Steady, slow exports
China	7,500	900	Ample, logistical lags
UK (beans)	380	60	Stable

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect firm prices to persist due to delayed Indian arrivals and ongoing steady demand.
• Importers: Consider near-term cover as premiums for high-quality beans may rise further if supply disruption continues.
• Traders: Short-term speculative opportunities for bullish positioning, but monitor logistics and early crop news closely.
• Industrial users: Maintain stock levels; consider incremental coverage to hedge against additional upside risks.
• Watch for potential volatility spikes if adverse weather persists over the coming week in Indian regions.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Outlook
Brasília (Kidney, dark red)	1.41	1.41–1.43 (firm, possible uptick if arrivals delayed)
Brasília (Kidney, brown eye)	1.35	1.35–1.37 (steady to firm)
London (Kidney, white)	1.34	1.33–1.35 (stable)
Beijing (Kidney, black)	1.3	1.30–1.34 (bullish bias)