India’s red chilli market is holding steady at elevated price levels, underscored by robust demand and meticulously managed supply. After a brief rally earlier in the week, the 334 No. benchmark in Guntur is trading around $198 per 100 kg—unchanged from the previous session—while daily arrivals sit comfortably in the 50,000 to 52,000 bag range. This equilibrium suggests that buyers, especially exporters and stockists, remain actively present, supporting prices against a backdrop of moderate supply constraints and healthy off-take.
Recent gains—$6 per 100 kg up from last week—reflect the resilience of this market. With trade and analyst sentiment expecting sustained firmness, all eyes are now on arrivals and export demand, which are likely to influence the market’s tone going into next week. Comparisons to prior reports show a consistent pattern: tightness in arrivals and brisk demand keep upward pressure on values, a trend confirmed by current pricing for both whole and processed chilli products. Weather forecasts for key growing regions will play a critical role; a stable monsoon outlook could see supplies remain tight, adding further bullish sentiment. Overall, the red chilli market is primed for continued strength, provided arrivals don’t surprise to the upside.
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Chilli dried whole
bird eye, grade a
FOB 4.67 €/kg
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Chilli dried
powder, grade a
FOB 4.42 €/kg
(from IN)
Chilli dried
flakes, grade a
FOB 4.38 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type / Grade | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Weekly Change (%) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole | Bird eye, Grade A, Organic | India | New Delhi | FOB | 4.67 | 4.65 | +0.43 | 2025-10-03 |
| Chilli dried powder | Grade A, Organic | India | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 4.42 | 4.40 | +0.45 | 2025-10-03 |
| Chilli dried flakes | Grade A, Organic | India | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 4.38 | 4.36 | +0.46 | 2025-10-03 |
| Chilli dried with stem | Conventional | India | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 2.17 | 2.15 | +0.93 | 2025-10-03 |
| Chilli dried whole, stemless | Grade A, Conventional | India | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 2.20 | 2.19 | +0.46 | 2025-10-03 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals: Current daily arrivals in Guntur range from 50,000 to 52,000 bags, adequate to meet ongoing demand but not in excess, providing price support.
- Demand: Remains robust, particularly from exporters and domestic stockists, who continue to build inventories amid limited arrivals.
- Exports: Interest from overseas buyers continues strong with Indian origin remaining the global benchmark for quality chilli products.
- Stocks: Domestic inventories are not overbuilt, keeping the market vulnerable to any supply shock or weather event.
📊 Fundamentals
- Price Drivers: The week’s $6/100kg gain reflected active buyer participation and low stocks.
- Weather: Monsoon progress has generally been stable, but recent outlooks call for vigilance on late-season rainfall, which could affect new crop quality and arrivals.
- Speculation: Both physical and futures markets see steady volumes with minimal speculative overhang, lending firmness to the spot market.
- Comparison to Last Report: Pricing and driver dynamics remain consistent: limited arrivals and active export demand continue to sustain elevated levels.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Andhra Pradesh and Telangana: IMD forecasts indicate isolated light rainfall over the next week, which is not expected to disrupt harvest or post-harvest operations significantly.
- Guntur: No adverse weather alerts currently; dry windows support ongoing arrivals but watch for possible rain in late week, which could delay fresh supplies.
- Long-term: A normal monsoon withdrawal should keep late-season disease/pest risk in check.
🌐 Global Positioning
- India: Remains the world’s top exporter and producer of dried red chilli. Supplies are stable but not burdensome, creating opportunities for price spikes.
- China: Seen as a major competitor in processed forms, but India leads in raw and whole dried forms.
- Importers: The Middle East, North America, and Europe are key markets; recent reports suggest steady import demand.
📆 Market Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect prices to remain firm near recent highs in the near term on strong demand and limited arrivals.
- Weather remains the key risk; any adverse event could spark fresh upward movement.
- Stockists and exporters should continue building inventory at current levels, given tightness in arrivals.
- Buyers advised to cover needs for 1-2 months in advance, especially for quality grades.
- Monitor Guntur arrivals closely next week—any downtrend could trigger further price gains.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location/Exchange | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guntur (Spot) | 334 No. Variety | 1.98 | 1.97–2.02 | Firm |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Bird Eye, Grade A | 4.67 | 4.65–4.72 | Steady to Up |
| Andhra Pradesh (FOB) | Powder, Grade A | 4.42 | 4.41–4.48 | Steady to Firm |
