Soybean Market Shifts: U.S. Diversifies as China Turns to South America

The global soybean market is undergoing a significant structural shift as the U.S., once the dominant supplier to China, is witnessing a marked reduction in Chinese demand. This season, U.S. soybean exports to China have fallen by nearly a quarter, largely due to China’s strategic diversification and South America’s ascendancy as the favored source. The resulting decline in U.S. exports has pressured domestic soybean prices lower, while pushing American farmers and traders to redirect efforts toward emerging export destinations such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Egypt.

This transition is unfolding amid robust global feed demand, signs of feed industry transformation in China, and exceptionally strong harvest progress in the U.S. Midwest. While Brazil’s competitive pricing and favorable exchange rates continue to attract Chinese buyers, American exporters are now entering long-term contracts with new partners, which could foster more stable market conditions in the future. Domestic U.S. prices remain soft – about 8% down since August – but analysts anticipate a possible export rebound as global trade balances evolve and alternative market relationships mature. The interplay between weather-driven yields, trade policy, and global animal feed trends will shape the market’s trajectory in the months ahead.

📈 Prices and Market Overview

Exchange/Market	Product/Type	Origin	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
CBOT	Futures (Nov)	US	US$11.30/bu (~EUR 0.39/kg)	-8%	Bearish
Physical (FOB)	No. 2	US	0.39	0.0%	Soft
Physical (FOB)	Sortex clean	IN	0.76	0.0%	Firm
Physical (FOB)	Standard	UA	0.34	0.0%	Steady
Physical (FOB)	Yellow	CN	0.68	+1.5%	Firming
Physical (FOB)	Yellow, Organic	CN	0.78	+1.3%	Firming

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Chinese demand down 25% year-on-year for U.S. soybeans; China now buys only 1.6 Mt for September, compared to historical averages >60% of U.S. exports.
• Rise in South American exports: Brazil and Argentina supply nearly 80% of China’s recent imports, fueled by a ~US$25/t price advantage and favorable currency rates.
• U.S. exports to alternative destinations up: Notable gains seen in Mexico, EU, Southeast Asia, and new markets such as India, Egypt, and Vietnam due to ongoing protein feed demand.
• Harvest pace: Over 45% of the U.S. crop already harvested; yields in line with USDA projections (~3.95 billion bushels).

📊 Key Fundamentals

• U.S. soybean exports (Sep): 4.4 Mt (previous year: 5.8 Mt)
• Brazil’s average export price: US$520/tonne (~EUR 0.49/kg)
• Global feed demand remains robust despite shifts in trade patterns.
• Forward contracts: U.S. exporters secure new business through early 2026 in non-traditional markets.

🌦️ Weather and Crop Outlook

• Midwest U.S.: Favorable warm, dry weather has accelerated harvest. Short-term rain expected late week in Illinois and Iowa, but should not hinder near-term fieldwork.
• South America: Brazil’s early planting conditions remain positive; no major adverse weather reported, supporting large 2024/25 output expectations.
• China: Heilongjiang and key Northern regions report balanced rainfall and good vegetative health.

Impact: U.S. harvest completion is likely to stabilize short-term pricing, while strong South American supplies maintain competitive global market pressure.

🌐 Major Exporters & Importers – Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)	Notes
U.S.	~120	~7.2	Lower stocks expected due to sluggish exports
Brazil	~157	~38.5	Record exports, strong supply pipeline
Argentina	~50	~4.0	High meal exports
China (imports)	~102	~16.5	Imports diversified, primarily from Brazil
EU (imports)	~16	~1.8	Stable imports, mix of U.S./Brazil origin

📌 Trading & Risk Outlook

• ⚠️ Short-term trend: Bearish bias persists on CBOT with potential for further downside if U.S. export sales remain weak.
• 🔎 Watch: South American crop progress & early planting results; a bumper crop could increase global supply further.
• 🛡️ Hedging recommended for producers with unsold inventory.
• 📦 Exporters: Focus on aggressively building alternative markets, especially in South & Southeast Asia and North Africa.
• 📉 Buyers: Consider phased purchases to capitalize on potential further dips, particularly as U.S. harvest pressures the market.
• ⏳ Speculators: Downside risk, but a price stabilization or short-covering rally is possible if South American crop risks emerge.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Major Exchanges)

Exchange/Region	Current Price	Forecast (3 days)	Trend
CBOT (US)	US$11.30/bu (EUR 0.39/kg)	US$11.10-11.20/bu	Soft/Bearish
Euronext (EU)	EUR 0.43/kg	EUR 0.42-0.43/kg	Stable
Fob Brazil (Santos)	US$520/t (EUR 0.49/kg)	US$515-520/t	Stable