The Indian nuts and dried fruits industry is experiencing a pivotal moment marked by strategic tax reforms, favorable growing conditions, and evolving international trade dynamics. India’s reduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on nuts and dried fruits from 12% to 5% is a game changer for the domestic market, making premium nuts such as almonds, pistachios, and walnuts more accessible ahead of the festival season. Retail prices have dropped by 7%, driving expectations of a 10% surge in consumer demand, mainly supporting small and medium processors—the backbone of India’s value-added sector.
This positive internal demand outlook aligns with external tailwinds. Possible U.S. tariff reductions on imported nuts and strategic partnerships with global players like the California Almond Board are expected to sustain India’s momentum in processing and re-exports. At the production level, improved rainfall in Kashmir is enhancing walnut crop quality and cashew supplies have stabilized—creating opportunities for both domestic and export-focused processors. The government’s engagement to expand domestic cultivation further cements India’s ambition to become a regional hub for processed nuts and dried fruits. The convergence of policy, weather, and trade factors creates a bullish narrative for the sector, suggesting continued growth in both consumption and value-added exports.
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil nuts | NL | Dordrecht, NL | 6.58 | 6.58 | 2025-09-27 | 0.00% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- GST reduction from 12% to 5% lowers retail prices by ~7% and is projected to increase domestic demand by 10% in the short term.
- Price relief is supporting smaller processors and making premium nuts accessible to new consumer segments.
- Stabilized cashew supplies are softening domestic prices and improving value-added processor margins.
- US tariff reductions for imported nuts may further expand India’s processing and re-export opportunities.
- International partnerships with US almond and pistachio industry groups are accelerating market expansion.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Data
- Industry lobbied for GST cuts as nuts are essential nutrition, not luxury goods.
- India is a major global processor—importing, processing, and re-exporting nuts.
- High domestic margins expected with improved export competitiveness.
- Global nut prices remain volatile, partly due to shifting US tariffs affecting supply from Vietnam and other origins.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact
- Kashmir walnut harvest: Favorable rainfall improving both quality and size; likely to increase Indian export potential.
- Cashew: Output stabilized, ensuring domestic supply and helping curb further price increases.
- Weather forecast for key nut regions in India: Moderate, well-distributed monsoon rains expected in the coming week, maintaining optimal soil moisture for current and next season’s crops.
- Potential risk: A heatwave in southern states could slightly impact the late cashew harvest window, but damage is expected to be minimal.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Major Product(s) | 2024 Production Estimate (kt) | Inventories/Stock Trends |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | Cashew, walnut, almond, pistachio | ~1,030 | Steady, increasing domestic stocks |
| USA | Almond, walnut, pistachio | ~1,430 | High, but some inventory drawdown expected if US tariffs fall |
| Vietnam | Cashew | ~470 | Stable, lower US demand pressuring prices |
| Turkey/Iran | Pistachio | ~290 | Short crop in 2023/24 boosting prices |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🎯 Buyers: Take advantage of stable to slightly softer prices, particularly for value-added processed nuts in India, ahead of the high-demand festival season.
- 🔔 Processors: Increased margins from GST reduction; consider expanding production and value-added offerings for both domestic and export markets.
- 📉 Exporters: Monitor shifts in US import policy—potential for increased shipments to US/EU markets if tariffs are reduced.
- 🚩 Importers: Watch for possible short-term volatility in global spot prices, but overall outlook is stable-to-bullish given strong Indian demand and improving weather.
- 🌱 Producers: Evaluate government incentives for nut cultivation; high-yield sapling imports can boost long-term productivity and profitability.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- India (Delhi, Mumbai): Prices for almonds, pistachios, and walnuts are likely to remain firm with a slight upward bias (~0.5%) as demand picks up for the festival season.
- Europe (Rotterdam, NL): Brazil nut prices expected to remain flat at EUR 6.58/kg, with no significant movement due to stable stocks.
- Global Spot Markets: Cashew and walnut prices in Vietnam and Turkey stable, with potential for firmness depending on US tariff outcomes and global festival demand.
