The walnut market is seeing a significant shift, both at the regional and international levels. In 2024, Butte County, California—a traditional almond stronghold—witnessed walnuts vaulting to the top spot in crop value. Over 20,600 hectares of walnut orchards generated US$150 million, despite facing a 15% drop in yields due to an extreme summer heatwave. This surprising performance was powered by a robust recovery in walnut prices, which have climbed from distress levels near US$0.20 per pound. The higher prices helped not only to cushion the blow of lower production but also to propel the county’s overall agricultural output to a record US$589 million. Meanwhile, almond acreage shrank and hull prices collapsed, marking a clear divergence in fortunes for California’s two major nuts.
This upturn in the walnut market is not occurring in a vacuum. Export activity remains robust, with Butte County shipping to 59 countries, and organic walnut production growing in value and scope. However, the specter of weather volatility, persistent input costs, and the competitive positioning of alternative origins (notably China and India) are still shaping price and supply dynamics. As global merchants, processors, and growers anticipate the coming months, the stage is set for continued tightness in top-quality supply and the likelihood of further price adjustment.
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Walnut kernels
light quarter
FOB 3.30 €/kg
(from CN)
Walnut kernels
light amber pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.25 €/kg
(from CN)
Walnut kernels
light pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.80 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Prices: Walnut Market Benchmarks
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery (FOB) | Latest Price (€/kg) | Prev. Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walnut kernels | Light quarter | CN | Dalian | FOB | 3.30 | 3.35 | -0.05 | Cautiously Firm |
| Walnut kernels | Light amber pieces, 8-12 mm | CN | Dalian | FOB | 2.25 | 2.30 | -0.05 | Consolidating |
| Walnut kernels | Light pieces, 8-12 mm | CN | Dalian | FOB | 2.80 | 2.85 | -0.05 | Steady |
| Walnut kernels | Light broken, 4-8 mm | CN | Dalian | FOB | 2.90 | 2.95 | -0.05 | Balanced |
| Walnut kernels (Organic) | Light halves, 80% | US | London | FOB | 4.55 | 4.60 | -0.05 | Firm |
| Walnut kernels (Organic) | Light halves | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 5.40 | 5.45 | -0.05 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Butte County: Overtakes almonds as top crop; US$150m value despite 15% yield cut.
- Almond contraction: Acreage down to 14,200 ha; improved yields, but hull prices fall impacting the sector.
- Export Network: Butte County exports to 59 countries, highlighting global demand resilience.
- Organic segment: Growing, with 63 farms contributing US$29m in value across diverse crops.
- Competing Origins: China remains largest global supplier at lower FOB values, providing price benchmarks for alternative origins.
📊 Fundamentals: Reports & Positioning
- USDA & Local Reports: Indicate improved grower returns and a positive market shift for walnuts in 2025; almonds show mixed trend.
- Speculative Flows: Recovery in price attractiveness may spur increased interest from funds and trading houses.
- Stock Levels: Reduced inventories due to heat-related yield losses; tightness especially in higher-grade, organic, and export-focused volumes.
🌤️ Weather Factor Outlook
- 2024 Summer: High heat led to 15% drop in walnut yields. Similar events in Tulare County.
- Short-term Forecast (California): Mild autumn; low risk of further yield losses before winter dormancy. Beneficial for late harvest activities but soil moisture needs monitoring for 2025 crop establishment.
- Key Global Regions: Eastern China (Shandong, Hebei) reports stable weather post-harvest; no major disruptions reported, aiding supply stability in coming shipment windows.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Prod. (est.) | 2024/25 Stocks (est.) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA (CA) | 630,000 t | Below avg. | Yield loss, price recovery, export focus |
| China | 1.05m t | Normal | Continues as price setter with large volumes |
| EU (France, Eastern Europe) | 250,000 t | Average | Stable output, quality mixed |
| Turkey/Iran | c.150,000 t | Average | Prices firm on weather risks |
📆 Trading Outlook: Key Action Points
- 📌 Buyers: Consider forward contracts for premium and organic grades; market expected to remain snug for quality lots.
- 📌 Producers: Watch autumn rainfall/snow forecasts for early insight into 2025 bloom conditions.
- 📌 Exporters: Monitor shipping logistics from California and China; flexibility in origin mix may yield cost savings.
- 📌 Speculators: Renewed price interest could fuel moderate upward momentum if weather risks persist or if demand rebounds in key importing regions.
- 📌 Watch for: Next USDA/HIS and Chinese customs export data for more supply cues.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Product | Direction | Forecasted Range (€/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian (CN FOB) | Walnut kernels, light quarter | ➡️ | 3.25 – 3.35 |
| Dalian (CN FOB) | Walnut kernels, light amber 8-12mm | ➡️ | 2.20 – 2.30 |
| London (GB FOB) | Walnut kernels, organic light halves | ⬆️ | 4.50 – 4.60 |