Rice Market Faces Price Pressure Amid Peak Harvest, Sufficient Stocks, and Weather Stability

The global rice market is navigating a classic harvest season scenario in early October, as fresh arrivals—particularly of the key 1509 paddy variety—flood northern India’s states like Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Punjab. This surge in supply is exerting clear downward pressure on local prices, which are now sitting between $67 and $78 per 100 kg depending on region and quality. Notably, rice millers in Haryana are transacting at the lower end of the range, reflecting a $2 per 100 kg drop from last week—an indicator mirrored in states like Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, where high arrival rates are weighing on sentiment.

This softening is expected to persist in the short-term, especially as mill stocks remain ample and procurement from both southern and eastern India continues at a steady clip. That said, medium- and fine-grain varieties are forecasted to show resilience due to stable domestic demand, buffering against steeper declines. Analysts remain united in their outlook: absent a disruptive weather event or policy shift, there is little immediate catalyst for a price rebound.

Globally, markets are steady, with FOB prices in India and Vietnam unchanged over the last week, and broader trading sentiment remains cautious as key Asian exporters enter peak marketing season. Weather across major producing regions is moderate-to-favorable, suggesting solid yield potential and a cap on bull runs in the market for now.

📈 Latest Rice Prices

Country	City	Type	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
India	New Delhi	All Golden Sella	1.03	0.00	Neutral
India	New Delhi	All Steam PR11	0.54	0.00	Neutral
India	New Delhi	All Steam Sharbati	0.69	0.00	Neutral
India	New Delhi	1509 Steam	0.89	0.00	Bearish
Vietnam	Hanoi	Long White 5%	0.56	0.00	Stable
Vietnam	Hanoi	Jasmine	0.58	0.00	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot

• India: Leading exporter; peak arrivals in North India are swelling inventories. South and East Indian flows remain stable.
• Vietnam/Thailand: Market steady, export pace unchanged, supporting global floor prices.
• Domestic Demand: Steady for finer varieties; mass-market grades under pressure.
• Export Outlook: Large Asian stocks; marginally higher exports anticipated in Q4 if weather remains supportive.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Drivers

• High arrivals in India coinciding with good mill stocks—a key factor for the current bearish sentiment.
• Rice millers reduced offering prices, particularly in Haryana and UP, by $2 per 100 kg after a strong influx.
• Stable weather in key global growing regions limits production risk and bearish speculation is reflected in sentiment data.
• No major policy interventions or trade restrictions on the horizon, keeping international trade flows fluid.
• Forward contracts and export deals see little volatility; speculative positioning modest.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India (Punjab/Haryana/UP): Dry spells expected this week, supporting rapid harvest and field work. No major rainfall disruptions forecast.
• Southeast Asia: Mild temperatures and beneficial rainfall in Vietnam and Thailand support robust yield potential in late-season crops.
• Effect: Favorable weather means high yield confidence and prevents upside price volatility near-term.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024 Expected Output (MMT)	2023 Output (MMT)	Stocks/Use (%)
India	130.7	129.5	21.2%
Vietnam	44.4	43.9	20.5%
Thailand	30.1	29.7	18.0%
China	148.0	146.2	36.1%
USA	7.2	6.7	16.0%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-Term (1 week): Maintain a cautious stance; supply surplus to weigh on mass-market grades. Consider holding back new sales unless for medium/fine varieties.
• Mid-Term (1-2 months): Monitor weather and government procurement rates—any divergence may set direction.
• Exporters: Focus on contract fulfillment and seek premium in finer, well-demanded varieties.
• Importers: Low volatility allows for gradual replenishment; consider forward purchasing if prices stabilize or dip further.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Major Exchanges)

Exchange / Market	Variety	Current (EUR/kg)	+1 Day	+2 Day	+3 Day	Trend
New Delhi (IN)	1509 Steam	0.89	0.88	0.88	0.88	Down/Stabilizing
New Delhi (IN)	All Golden Sella	1.03	1.03	1.03	1.03	Stable
Hanoi (VN)	Long White 5%	0.56	0.56	0.56	0.56	Stable