Wheat Market Report: Stabilized Prices Amid Firm Mill Demand and Steady Arrivals

Wheat markets in major producing regions have entered a period of notable stability. Despite a season of higher overall wheat production, government procurement in India has reached approximately 29.92 million tones for the central pool, reflecting an effective policy response that has buffered price volatility. Notably, substantial private stocks remain in farmers’ hands, suggesting a potential cushion for any near-term supply disruptions.

Spot prices are currently hovering around $34 per 100 kg, exhibiting minimal fluctuations of $0.25 to $0.30 per 100 kg at local markets. This stability is underpinned by limited arrivals and solid, ongoing demand from flour mills—trends further bolstered by the seasonal uptick expected from upcoming festivals. Trade analysts widely anticipate that the wheat market will remain range-bound, with price movements unlikely to trend downward in the immediate future. This steady environment offers both producers and buyers critical visibility for planning and positions wheat as one of the more predictable agri-commodities at the moment.

📈 Prices: Key Exchange Wheat Prices

Origin	Location	Type	Closing Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (EUR/kg)	Market Sentiment
US	CBOT, Washington D.C.	Protein min. 11.50%	0.21	0.00	Neutral/Stabilizing
FR	Euronext, Paris	Protein min. 11.00%	0.27	0.00	Steady
UA	Odesa (FOB)	Protein min. 11.00%	0.19	0.00	Balanced

🌍 Supply & Demand Fundamentals

• Procurement (India): 29.92 million tonnes for the central pool, bolstering government-held stocks.
• Private Stocks: Significant on-farm stocks remain, providing inventory buffer.
• Market Demand: Flour mills’ steady buying and anticipated festive demand strengthen the bid side.
• Global Prices: CBOT and Euronext wheat hold steady, reflecting synchronized global sentiment.
• Trade Flows: Limited fresh arrivals ensure local markets aren’t oversupplied.

📊 Recent Market Drivers

• USDA Reports: Latest USDA data indicates global wheat inventories remain comfortable despite regional weather risks.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds largely balanced; no excessive short or long commitments visible.
• Acreage & Production: Higher production year in India and above-average output forecasts in Ukraine and France.

🌦 Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• India: Monsoon withdrawal has mostly concluded. Moisture conditions stable, aiding late-stage grain fill.
• Ukraine & Russia: Mild temperatures, moderate rainfall. Little yield risk for late-harvest wheat.
• France (Western Europe): Occasional showers; slightly above-average moisture, beneficial for planting and early development stages.

🌐 Global Stocks & Production Comparison

Country	2023/24 Output (Mt)	2023/24 Ending Stocks (Mt)
India	110	13.5
US	48.1	16.4
EU	134	13.1
Russia	84.0	18.3
Ukraine	22.0	3.4
China	138	135

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Hold for now; with festive demand in India and steady global prices, downside is limited.
• Millers/Buyers: Secure short-term requirements; no price spikes expected, but seasonal demand may tighten spot supplies.
• Exporters: Monitor freight and port logistics, especially in the Black Sea and India, as local demand absorbs a major portion of supply.
• Traders: Range-bound market; look for opportunities in local basis trades rather than directional bets.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• CBOT (US): 0.21 – 0.22 EUR/kg   |   Steady-to-Firm
• Euronext (FR): 0.27 – 0.275 EUR/kg   |   Stable
• Ukraine (Odesa, FOB): 0.19 – 0.205 EUR/kg   |   Mild upward bias possible if Black Sea shipments ease
• India (Spot, USD): $33.75 – $34.10 / 100 kg   |   Narrow, steady band