The turmeric market has seen significant momentum this week, with prices reaching new highs supported by strong buying activity and a continued squeeze on arrivals in key trading hubs. The benchmark Nizamabad market reported futures trading in the range of USD 15,450–15,560 per ton, while physical prices held even firmer at USD 15,500–15,650 per ton, reflecting both limited inventory and selective quality offerings. The average daily arrival in major markets languished at around 3,500 bags—well below typical levels for this season—keeping the available supply thin and feeding into bullish market sentiment.
Spice processors have continued steady offtake, while robust export demand is keeping the upward momentum intact. Notably, the commodity exchange recorded a 1.18% rise in open interest, highlighting fresh buying and increased participation from speculative players. Traders and analysts alike expect the bullish undertone to persist, underpinned by persistent low inventories and active demand from both domestic and export channels. Looking ahead, concerns about weather patterns in key growing areas could further amplify volatility, as the critical Kharif crop faces harvest uncertainties from recent monsoon variations. Against this backdrop, market participants are advised to closely track both demand and supply side developments as the turmeric complex enters a critical period for price discovery.
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Turmeric whole
FOB 2.57 €/kg
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Turmeric powder
FOB 3.40 €/kg
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Turmeric dried
finger salem,double polished, grade A
FOB 1.62 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices Overview
| Product | Origin | Location | Type | Organic | FOB Price (EUR/t) | Weekly Change | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric whole | IN | New Delhi | – | Yes | 2,570 | 0 | 2025-10-03 |
| Turmeric powder | IN | New Delhi | – | Yes | 3,400 | 0 | 2025-10-03 |
| Turmeric dried, finger salem double polished, grade A | IN | Telangana | Finger Salem | No | 1,620 | 0 | 2025-10-03 |
| Turmeric dried, finger nizamabad double polished, grade A | IN | Telangana | Finger Nizamabad | No | 1,520 | 0 | 2025-10-03 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Steady Domestic Demand: Spice processors continue to buy actively, absorbing available supply.
- Sustained Export Orders: Exporters are supporting prices due to consistent overseas offtake.
- Tight Physical Arrivals: Arrivals at key centers like Nizamabad average 3,500 bags/day, well below norms.
- Open Interest Up: Commodity exchange reports open interest higher by 1.18% (total 11,912 lots), indicating fresh speculative buying.
- Low Inventories: Fall in carry-forward stocks adds to bullish tone.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Price support from both spot and futures markets at multi-week highs.
- Physical and futures market price convergence fueling sentiment.
- Bulls dominate due to shortage of quality arrivals and strong trade positioning.
☁️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Monsoon Variability: Recent monsoon patterns have been erratic across southern India, with late-season rainfall potentially impacting harvest quality and timing in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra.
- Short-term Forecast (Next 7 Days): Regional forecasts suggest scattered rainfall in Telangana, possible light showers in Maharashtra, and partly cloudy conditions in Andhra Pradesh. While generally favorable for ongoing harvest activities, any heavy local downpours could disrupt drying processes and lower arrival volume further.
- Impact: Weather uncertainty in these key belts could create spot shortages and add upward pressure to prices in the near term.
🌏 Global Production & Inventory Landscape
| Country | 2024 Prod. Est. (t) | Leading Exporter | Inventory Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~1.2 million | Yes | Low (main stock drawdown) |
| Bangladesh | 165,000 | No | Moderate |
| Myanmar | 190,000 | No | Stable |
| Sri Lanka | 37,000 | No | Moderate |
- India remains the dominant producer and supplier, with short-term exportable surplus now limited due to low farm gate stocks.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish Momentum: Continue to expect upward price movement in the near-term, especially with limited arrivals and robust demand.
- Physical Market Sellers: Consider locking in prices on forward contracts as current levels represent multi-week highs.
- Buyers/Processors: Secure inventory as ongoing supply tightness may result in further upward movement.
- Exporters: Monitor currency risk and quality differentials; strong export interest could sustain premium for higher grades.
- Speculators: Watch for technical resistance near recent highs—fresh long positions have support, but upside likely capped by currency and demand shifts in coming weeks.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Product | Current Price (USD/t) | 3-Day Forecast Range (USD/t) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nizamabad (Futures) | Turmeric (Finger) | 15,450–15,560 | 15,600–15,700 | Firm/Bullish |
| Nizamabad (Physical) | Turmeric (Finger) | 15,500–15,650 | 15,600–15,750 | Strong/Bullish |
- Expect continued firm to bullish undertone with potential for minor upward movement as arrivals stay subdued and demand remains robust.
