Chickpea Market Holds Firm as Demand Supports Prices Amid Tight Supplies

Steadiness defines the current chickpea (Kabuli Chana) market, with limited but persistent buying supporting prices. Despite sluggish arrivals into physical markets, both retail and bulk demand from food processors and household consumers in core areas, notably Maharashtra, continue to prop up rates. Wholesale chickpea prices in Maharashtra currently range between (roughly $744–$780/ton), reflecting moderate stock levels and slightly firmer bidding from small-lot traders due to thinning inventories.

Industry chatter suggests that no significant new arrivals are expected in the immediate term, firming up the near-term outlook. Market sentiment is underpinned by anticipation of upcoming festive season demand, which should gradually lift volumes and prices further. Analysts widely expect prices to remain stable to slightly firmer over the next month, with very limited room for decline as overall inventories dwindle and consumer interest stays solid. In conclusion, the chickpea market appears well-supported, with firm undertones set to continue absent any unexpected supply shocks.

📈 Prices

Origin	City	Type	Size	Price (EUR/MT, FOB)	Previous Price (EUR/MT)	Update Date	Sentiment
Mexico	Mexico City	Chickpeas dried	75-80, 8 mm	1.10	1.12	2025-10-03	Softening
Mexico	Mexico City	Chickpeas dried	42-44, 12 mm	1.62	1.64	2025-10-03	Softening
India	New Delhi	Chickpeas dried	60-62, 8 mm	1.17	1.19	2025-10-03	Stable
India	New Delhi	Chickpeas dried	58-60, 9 mm	1.18	1.20	2025-10-03	Stable
India	New Delhi	Chickpeas dried	46-48, 10 mm	1.22	1.24	2025-10-03	Firm
India	New Delhi	Chickpeas dried	44-46, 11 mm	1.24	1.26	2025-10-03	Firm
India	New Delhi	Chickpeas dried	42-44, 12 mm	1.23	1.25	2025-10-03	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Tight Supplies: Lower arrivals, particularly in major producing states such as Maharashtra and Rajasthan, continue to curb available inventories.
• Strong Consumer Demand: Domestic processors and exporters, along with ongoing retail demand, are keeping pressure on the supply pipeline.
• No Near-term Relief: Farmers and aggregators are holding limited stocks, with no expectations of fresh arrivals in the short run.
• Festive Season Ahead: The upcoming festive period in India is likely to trigger incremental increases in demand and procurement activity.

📊 Fundamentals

• Market Drivers:
  • Moderate to low stock levels nationwide, with Maharashtra setting the tone for pricing.
  • Firming trend among small-lot traders, with premiums over bulk market as supplies dwindle.
  • No evidence yet of significant speculative build-up or unwarranted price spikes.
  • Absence of new crop arrivals underpins current firmness.
• Comparative Performance:
  • Prices have softened marginally or remained steady over the last week in both Mexico and India, yet Indian offers (especially for larger calibers) retain a firmer undertone.
  • Premium for Indian chickpeas compared to Mexican reflects continued international demand, particularly from Middle East buyers.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: Post-monsoon conditions remain favorable for standing crops, but scant late showers in northern and western India could impede prospects for late-planted chickpea. Short-term weather is largely neutral for harvest but prolonged dryness could risk late-sown acreage.
• Mexico: Normal end-of-season conditions with no major weather disturbances expected. Slight dry spells are recorded in some export-oriented regions, but impact is minimal at this stage.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023/24 Production (est., ‘000 MT)	2022/23 Stocks (‘000 MT)	2023/24 Export Outlook (‘000 MT)
India	11,600	1,700	1,050
Australia	1,050	300	900
Mexico	180	30	170
Turkey	600	80	110
Canada	95	22	60

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Buyers:
  • Consider gradual spot purchases for near- and medium-term needs before potential festive-driven price lifts.
  • Focus on Indian and Mexican origins for prompt shipments; premiums may emerge as market tightens.
• Sellers/Traders:
  • Maintain a firm stance on holding stocks unless immediate liquidity is required; price downside risk is limited.
  • Monitor local and international price differentials and optimize sales timing, especially into the festival season.
• Risk: Watch for unexpected policy interventions or sudden changes in weather patterns, though neither is currently a major threat.

⏰ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Current Price (EUR/MT)	Expected Trend (3 Days)	Comment
India (FOB New Delhi)	1.17–1.24	Stable to Firm	Supplies tight, demand persists
Mexico (FOB Mexico City)	1.10–1.62	Steady	Exports modest, arrivals consistent
Maharashtra (INR per quintal)	6200–6500	Stable to Slightly Up	Strong festival demand ahead