Turkish Hazelnuts Market: Prices Ease, But Uncertainty Remains High

After a prolonged period of steep price increases, the Turkish hazelnut market has finally witnessed a slight price retreat this week, marking a significant moment for buyers and sellers alike. For months, escalating costs fueled by lower yields, quality concerns, and robust speculative activity kept the market on edge. Now, as average prices begin to cool, the market finds itself at a critical crossroads. Even these modest declines have provided some breathing space for European buyers, many of whom have held off purchasing in hopes of a correction. However, contradictory signals from exporters and shifting supply-demand fundamentals mean uncertainty remains the dominant theme.

Supply dynamics continue to be especially sensitive: lower-than-expected Turkish harvest volume, reduced quality due to pest pressures, and uncertain purchasing strategies from major players combine to ensure any change in demand quickly ripples through the market. Meanwhile, alternative origins, such as Georgia, Azerbaijan, Chile, and the US, offer increasing competition, partly cushioning prices but not enough to reset the market’s fundamental tightness. The Turkish lira remains range-bound, adding further complexity to traders’ decisions. Exporters expect prices may regain upward momentum, but buyers continue to cover only short-term needs, wary of further price swings. Finally, weather worries and forward-looking quality concerns foretell a challenging road ahead for both buyers and sellers in this critical global commodity market.

📈 Hazelnut Prices & Market Trends

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Current Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Natural 11-13mm	GE	PL, Warsaw	FCA	10.05	9.10	+0.95	Firming
Natural 13-15mm	GE	PL, Warsaw	FCA	10.10	9.20	+0.90	Firming
Hazelnut kernels 15+	GE	PL, Warsaw	FCA	10.50	9.60	+0.90	Firming
Natural 13-15mm	TR	TR, Istanbul	FOB	13.97	14.82	-0.85	Stabilization
Natural 11-13mm	TR	TR, Istanbul	FOB	13.35	14.20	-0.85	Declining
Roasted, diced, 2-4mm	TR	TR, Istanbul	FOB	12.40	12.90	-0.50	Weakening
Roasted, meal	TR	TR, Istanbul	FOB	11.20	11.70	-0.50	Weakening

• Performance YoY (Turkish Market): 51.5% higher
• Current deviation: Prices easing off multi-year highs but remain volatile

🌍 Supply & Demand

• After a sharp rally, Turkish hazelnut kernel prices fell back 30-40 TRY/kg, now averaging ~300-310 TRY/kg (in-shell), reflecting profit-taking and financing liquidity needs.
• Harvest in Turkey reportedly underperforms on both volume and quality, primarily due to pest (Halyomorpha halys) but also challenging picking conditions.
• Alternative suppliers (Georgia, Azerbaijan, Chile, US) have positive crop results, increasingly winning acceptance in European markets.
• Buyers (especially in Europe) remain reluctant with coverage short-term as outlook remains unclear; many unable to pass on high raw material costs and face margin pressure.
• Exporters anticipate renewed price momentum if large buyers (market leaders) reenter the market aggressively.
• TMO (Turkish Grain Board) maintains a high floor price, limiting downside and supporting bullish bias.

📊 Market Fundamentals & External Influences

• Turkish lira remains largely stable week-on-week; no major currency volatility impacting export pricing.
• Exporters reporting increased speculation, but financial industry costs and risk of overstocking drive some sales/liquidation.
• Market is split: top-quality raw kernels in tight supply, processed and mixed stock discounted due to quality issues and slower demand.
• Emerging trend: EU buyers more open to alternative origins; formulation changes underway for end products amid cost and availability concerns.
• Heightened risk of renegotiation and contract defaults adds to buyer hesitancy.

☁️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• 2024/25 harvest quality in Turkey has suffered from persistent pest (marmorierte Stinkwanze) and erratic spring/summer rains, contributing to lower kernel return (41% vs 50% average).
• Weather outlook (October): Mild, showery in Black Sea coast with limited risk of further damage to late-harvested nuts but harvest largely complete.
• Next 2–3 months: Focus on storage and drying quality, risk of further quality downgrades if weather remains humid.
• No major frost events currently forecast; spring 2026 outlook being watched for next year’s flowering.

📌 Key Market Drivers

• Unclear procurement strategy from market leaders contributes to ongoing market standoff.
• Financing costs and profit-taking influence short-term sales; high minimum wage and processing costs raise producer floor price.
• Competitive crops from alternative origins offer supply relief in EU but not enough to fully offset Turkish shortfalls.
• TMO’s (Turkish Grain Board) support price underpins market, particularly for Turkish origin.
• Quality issues in Turkish crop (pest, kernel output) may limit supply of top-grade product.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect short-term volatility to persist as both buyers and sellers remain cautious and risk-averse.
• Spot sourcing recommended for immediate needs given ongoing price swings and contract renegotiations.
• Monitor Turkish TMO policy and actions of major industrial buyers for price triggers.
• Consider alternative origins (GE, AZ, US, Chile) for mid-quality/processed material.
• Quality-sensitive users should secure high-grade raw kernels early, as availability will decline and prices may rebound.
• Watch for potential bounce if large buyers (market leaders) end purchasing pause

⏭️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Origins & Products)

Product	Region	Current Price (€/kg)	Forecast (+3 days)	Sentiment
Natural Hazelnut Kernels 11-13mm	Turkey (FOB Istanbul)	13.35	13.20 – 13.50	Stable/Weak
Natural Hazelnut Kernels 13-15mm	Turkey (FOB Istanbul)	13.97	13.90 – 14.10	Stable
Natural Hazelnut Kernels 11-13mm	Georgia (FCA Warsaw)	10.05	10.10 – 10.30	Firming
Hazelnut Kernels 15+	Georgia (FCA Warsaw)	10.50	10.50 – 10.70	Firm